GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017 Existential Risk Diplomacy and Governance GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 20172 EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE Table of contents Authors/acknowledgements 3 Executive summary 4 Section 1. An introduction to existential risks 6 1.1. An overview of leading existential risks 6 Box: Examples of risks categorised according to scope and severity 7 1.1.1 Nuclear war 7 1.1.2 Extreme climate change and geoengineering 8 1.1.3 Engineered pandemics 9 1.1.4 Artificial intelligence 9 1.1.5 Global totalitarianism 9 1.1.6 Natural processes 10 1.1.7 Unknown unknowns 10 1.2. The ethics of existential risk 11 1.3. Why existential risks may be systematically underinvested in, and the role of the international community 11 1.3.1. Why existential risks are likely to be underinvested in 11 1.3.2. The role of the international community 12 Section 2. Recommendations 16 2.1. Develop governance of Solar Radiation Management research 16 2.1.1 Current context 16 2.1.2 Proposed intervention 16 Box: Types of interventions to reduce existential risk 17 2.1.3 Impact of the intervention 18 2.1.4 Ease of making progress 19 2.2. Establish scenario plans and exercises for severe engineered pandemics at the international level 19 2.2.1 Current context 19 2.2.2 Proposed intervention 20 2.2.3 Impact of the intervention 21 2.2.4 Ease of making progress 21 Box: World bank pandemic emergency financing facility 22 2.3. Build international attention to and support for existential risk reduction 23 2.3.1 Current context 23 2.3.2 Proposed intervention 23 2.3.2.1 Statements or declarations 24 Box: Existential risk negligence as a crime against humanity 24 2.3.2.2 Reports 24 2.3.2.3 Training courses 25 2.3.2.4 Political representation for Future Generations 25 2.3.2.5 UN Office of Existential Risk Reduction 26 2.3.3 Impact of the intervention 26 2.3.4 Ease of making progress 26 Box: Interventions under consideration which did not reach the final stage 27 2.3.5 What next steps can people take? 27 Appendix Methodology 30 EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE 3GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017 Executive summary T he 2015 Paris Agreement represented a huge global effort to safeguard future generations from damaging climate change. But climate change is not the only serious risk to humanity. Our collective commitment to our children and future generations needs to extend to all existential risks those with the potential to permanently curtail humanitys opportunity to flourish. These risks in- clude nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and other catastrophes resulting from emerging technologies. These disasters could cause an almost unimag- inable loss. They would lead to immediate harm, but in their most extreme forms, they have the potential to wipe out humanity entirely. Such risks may seem unlikely and distant. Indeed, in any one year they are improbable. But small prob- abilities accumulate - and because disaster risk re- duction is a global public good individual nations will tend to underinvest in it. Nuclear weapons and climate change themselves would have once been unimaginable. It may be that emerging technologies introduce new risks that are even harder to manage. Managing existential risk may prove to be the deci- sive geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. The first half of this report offers an overview of existential risks. The second half presents three op- portunities for humanity to reduce these risks. These were chosen with the help of over 50 researchers and policy-makers out of more than 100 proposals emerged from three workshops at the University of Oxford and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Helsinki. For each of these opportunities, humanity will require increasing levels of trust and internation- al collaboration in order to face the challenges that threaten us all. Moreover, these risks are constantly evolving, and understanding them will need deep and sustained engagement with the global research community. We hope that this report will go some way to ad- vancing the discussion about the management of existential risks, and inspire action from well-placed individuals and institutions. DEVELOP GOVERNANCE OF GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH Geoengineering technologies like Solar Radiation Management have the potential to mitigate risks from climate change, while at the same time posing risks of their own. The current lack of international norms on acceptable research practices may well be holding back safe exploration of climate engineering options. ESTABLISH SCENARIO PLANS AND EXERCISES FOR SEVERE ENGINEERED PANDEMICS AT THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL Existing scenario planning focuses on modest out- breaks at a mostly national level. As the 2015 Ebola outbreak showed, nations do not respond in isola- tion. Planning must become increasingly internation- al, and should prepare for low-probability high-im- pact scenarios of pathogens synthesised to be more harmful than any naturally occurring disease