Deutsche Bank Markets Research Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Financials HY Multi Sector IG Multi Sector Date 5 September 2017 CEEMEA RV monitor - Autumn chill in August _ Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Himanshu Porwal Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-74234 himanshu.porwal In this version of RV monitor, we focus on CEEMEA corporate credit performance in August 2017 and show aggregate performance of Corporates across key CEEMEA geographies and across rating bands IG and HY. As Autumn officially kicked in this part of the world, we note that CEEMEA credits already felt the Autumn chill in August which marked its worst monthly performance in 2017 worst monthly performance in 2017 as aggregate corporate spreads widened by 14bpsas aggregate corporate spreads widened by 14bps in Aug-17 (+11bps MoM as of 01-Sep-17 closing) compared to almost flat levels for overall EM Corporates. This also marked the reversal of spread tightening seen in July 2017. We attribute this weakness to bouts of geopolitical noiseWe attribute this weakness to bouts of geopolitical noise (mainly North Korea related) and policy issuespolicy issues prompting investors to move away from risky assets towards safer havens. Slide in oil pricesSlide in oil prices (down 6% in August) further accentuated the spread widening of CEEMEA corporates underscoring the high reliance and strong correlation of large CEEMEA economies (Russia, GCC etc) with the oil prices. If this was not enough, we also saw a major Russian private bank bail-outmajor Russian private bank bail-out in late August which is expected to have unnerved investor sentiments towards the regional credit. However, despite this worst YTD monthly spread widening, CEEMEA corporates are still trading 16bps tighter on YTD basis suggesting their relative richness in the historical context. The lower US treasury yields (lowest levels since November 2016) and expectation of no Fed rate hikes until December this year appears to be providing some support on the total return front. Key observations from Monthly price action, as of 01-Sep-17 CEEMEA corporates underperformed (11bp widening) vs. overall EM corporates (1bps widening), LatAm (5bps tightening) and Asian peers (2bps widening). Rating wise, CEEMEA IG underperformed (22bps widening) HY names which surprisingly tightened by 7bps. Country wise, South African credits were the biggest outperformers witnessing spread tightening of 24bps. Turkish credits also fared strong tightening by 6bps on an average. UAE and GCC credits underperformed mostly with former seeing spread widening of as much as 23bps on a MoM basis. Russian corporates finished just 2bps wider after having widened by 13bps in the early last week. See figure 4 for country wise spread performance chart. Sector wise performance was rather modest with average spread tightening of 6bps across most sectors barring Metals and Mining (-10bps) and subordinated bank bonds (+160bps). See figure 1 for aggregate sector wide spread performance along with outperformers and underperformers within each sector. Amongst big movers Russia based Otkritie banks subordinated bonds (NMOSRM 10% 19s) dropped most significantly from USD95 to USD37.5 (as of 01-Sep-17 closing) as concerns grew over its solvency following a run on deposits. The bank was later bailed out by the Central Bank of Russia last week. Recall that before the bailout, Otkritie was one of Russias largest private bank with high systemic importance. Hence, these developments have raised some concerns of potential contagion risks for Russian banking sector in general and mostly for similar instrument of other Russian banks. Apart from this, we also saw large spread widening in Russia based real estate credit OPRORU 21s and Qatar based COMQAT 21s, both up by 153bps. Amongst outperformers, DARALA 19s (our Buy recommendation) stood out with 104bps of tightening in August 2017. Figure 1: CEEMEA Corporates - Monthly Performance -13 -20 -5 33 5 -2 11 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17 May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17 Change in spread, bps Source: Deutsche Bank, Markit, as of 01-Sep-2017 Figure 2: Out/Underperformers Sector Weighted avg. sector Spread Change (bps) Outperformers: bonds with highest Spread tighening Underperformers: bonds with highest spread widening Utilities-5ESKOM 7.125 25 (-48)OMGRID 5.196 27 (18) TMT-8QTELQD 7.875 19 (-41)QTELQD 4.5 43 (10) Real Estate NMOSRM APR 19: 8,885bps Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data, DB indicative pricing as of 01-Sep-17, Bloomberg Finance LP Figure 11: CAR vs Spreads (Subordinate) AUBBI PerpC20 COMQAT 19 ALFARU 19 ALFARU 21 ALFARU 25C20 CRBKMO PerpC22 CRBKMO 27C22 FCFIN 27C22 FCFIN 19 GPBRU 20 GPBRU 19 PROMBK 19 PROMBK 21 PROMBK Perp ODEABK 27 RSHB 23 SBERRU 22