太原理工大学 硕士学位论文 我国船舶制造业生产计划与控制研究 姓名：于军生 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：管理科学与工程（工学） 指导教师：王汉斌 20100410 I 我国船舶制造业生产计划与控制研究 摘 要 我国船舶工业经过几十年的发展，造船产量迅速增长，已稳居世界第 三位，在我国国民经济发展中的作用越来越重要，尤其在目前我国向工业 化国家过渡阶段，船舶工业更为重要。与此同时，随着造船产量的快速增 长，我国在造船生产管理方式和理念方面与先进造船国家日、韩的差距却 越来越大，这种差距集中体现在生产计划与控制管理方面。因此，研究我 国船舶制造业生产计划与控制问题，提高管理水平，从而提高造船生产效 率、增强企业竞争力是非常必要的。 本文从我国船舶制造业生产与管理特点和生产计划与控制现状及问题 出发，根据国内外生产计划与控制和国内船舶制造业生产计划与控制研究 现状，通过关键链项目管理（CCPM）方法与船舶制造业生产计划与控制 方法的对比分析和在船舶制造业应用的可行性分析，确定了在我国船舶制 造业中应用关键链项目管理方法进行生产计划与控制的思路，并分析了关 键链项目管理理论在实践中存在的问题。在此基础上，构建了基于关键链 项目管理理论的多项目生产计划与控制模型C-E 模型，其基本思想是 在船舶制造企业借鉴采用 ERP 管理模式，用关键链项目管理方法解决多项 目进度管理问题，制定生产计划，通过确定“瓶颈”和关键链，抓住关键环 节，采用关键链进度优化算法进行优化，合理安排关键生产资源，提高关 键环节的能力，解决生产计划及控制方面存在的问题。并按照模型的实施 流程，结合船舶制造企业的具体生产管理特点，研究了模型中各模块的主 要工作。最后分析了模型的主要特点，探讨了模型实施过程中注意的问题， II 并提出了保证模型实施的配套措施。 本文的创新之处在于，根据船舶制造业生产与管理的具体特点，将关 键链项目管理理论方法应用到船舶生产计划与控制上，构建了 C-E 模型， 设计了模型实施的主要流程，包括：船舶关键链计划制定、物资需求计划 制定、自制生产计划制定、船舶生产计划控制。在制定关键链计划过程中， 将灰色预测理论应用到工序工期的确定上，采用 80%概率可能完成的时间 作为工序工期的估计，以缩短项目工期；在制定物资需求计划过程中，将 物资按重要性进行分类管理，并将物资需求计划与关键链计划进行关联， 实现了物资需求与物资供应的高度统一，以更好地为生产服务；在生产计 划控制上， 采用关键链控制方法和挣值分析方法结合对项目进度进行控制， 在挣值计算过程中，将关键链和非关键链分开计算挣值，以更好地实现进 度控制。 关键词：船舶制造业；生产计划与控制；关键链；关键链项目管理； 模型；WBS；灰色预测理论 III The Research on Production Planning and Control in Ship-building Manufacturing of Our Country Abstract: After several decades of the development of ship-building manufacturing in our country, the output of the ship-building is growing rapidly and it has occupied the third place in the world. As a crucial role during the development of national economy in our country, especially during the period of transition to industrialized country, the ship-building manufacturing becomes more important. At the same time, we should have a clear view, with the rapid growth of shipbuilding output, there is a wide gap between the advanced ship-building countries, Japan and Korea and our country in the method of production management and the concepts which is embodied in the aspects of production planning and control. Therefore, it is necessary to study the production planning and control of ship-building to improve its management level, to improve its productivity and to enhance the competitiveness of enterprise. From the production and the management characteristics，the production planning and control present situations and questions on ship-building of our country, according to the research present situations of the domestic and foreign production planning and control, and the domestic production planning and control of ship-building manufacturing, through contrastive analysis of Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) method and production planning and control methods in ship-building manufacturing, and feasibility analysis in ship-building manufacturing, this article determined that the ship-building manufacturing of our country carried on production planning and control using the method of CCPM, and it analyzed the questions which existed in practice of CCPM. Based on these, it constructed the multi-project production planning and control modelC-E model which based on the theory of CCPM, the basic philosophy is that it learned and used ERP management pattern in the ship-building manufacturing, and used CCPM to solve multi-project schedule IV management problems and draw production planning, through determining the “bottleneck” and the critical chain, grasping the key link, using the critical chain schedule optimization algorithm to optimize schedule to reasonably arrange the key manufacturing resource, improve the capacity of key link and solve the problems of production planning and control. According to the implementation process of the model, combined with the specific production and management characteristics of ship-building manufacturing, the article studied the major tasks of each module of the model. At last, it analyzed the main features of the model, explored the problems in implementation process of the model and proposed the supporting measures which could guarantee the model implementation. The innovation of this article is using CCPM method in ship-building production planning and control and constructs the C-E model according to the specific characteristics of production and management of the ship-building manufacturing. It designed the main implement flow of the model which included drawing the critical chain schedule, drawing the material requirements planning, drawing the self-production planning and production plan control of the ships. In the course of drawing the critical chain schedule, the article applied the Gray Prediction Theory to determine the process duration, used 80% probability possible completion time as the estimation of the process duration to shorten the project duration. In the course of drawing the material requirements planning, the article took the measure of classified administration for the materials by its importance, associated the material requirements planning and the critical chain schedule and achieved the high degree of unity