July 2001 COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALS Logistics Services Industry Environment CSFB A T Kearney Analysis Transportation and Related Expenditures by Region 2000 Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function 2000 US Bn Total US 3 837 Bn Others 1 4 Asia 1 2 2 Europe 2 6 North America 4 0 3 424 3 837 4 389 CAGR 2 3 CAGR 2 8 Warehousing 304 Bn Transport 2 204 Bn Others 55 Bn Shipper Related 20 Bn Inventory 1 102 Bn Admin 152 Bn CAGR 2000 2006 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 13 The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39 over the next five years Note Asia includes China Japan Honk Kong Korea Singapore and Taiwan Source Bowersox and Calantone CSFB A T Kearney Analysis Logistics Outsourcing Market in Asia Gross Revenue US Bn CAGR 99 01 38 CAGR 01 06 39 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 14 The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport warehousing and transport management Transport Warehousing Transport Management IT Supplementary Logistic Services Purchase Order Management Logistics Management 30 47 48 85 20 40 39 76 23 2 5 16 of respondents outsourcing 1998 of respondents planed outsourcing 2003 13 8 Outsourcing by Function Resource require ments Complexity Note The percentage may not add up to 100 due to rounding Source Based on several A T Kearney studies including Worldwide study comprising 280 participants automotive 19 electronics 25 retail 27 chemicals 29 European study comprising 500 participants retail 26 food CSFB A T Kearney Estimates CAGR 35 190 23 0 61 China Logistics Service Market US Bn 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 19 The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China Characteristics Emerging demand for outsourced logistics services Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced Traditional in house behaviour being impacted Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader services Large number of services providers competing for customers and human resources Most high value added services are free and provided as selling points Logistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competition Consolidated service market with a few established market leaders Logistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business models Global logistics integrators provide one stop solution worldwide Specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers Optimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chain Stage EmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalization World Leading US China Today Source A T Kearney 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 20 Warehousing and Distribution Trucking Rail Freight Although Heavily Used Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is Poor Railway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company Containers Airline Customs Brokerage Courier Limited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV E G DHL Sinotrans Regional Segregation in Operation Logistics Center and Freight Forwarding Shipping The domestic warehousing market is currently small and over supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no value added services Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies River transportation has declined Most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs Trucking companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions Government has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub contracted by the international freight forwarder Seven domestic airlines dominate regional operations Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per week Many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles Customs clearing procedures took at least 1 day previously but expected to be shortened to1 hour The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China continued Source A T Kearney Analysis China Logistics Services 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 21 Transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed countries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunity Total Transportation and Related Expenditures and of GDP 2000 Note 1 VAS Value added services 2 Including packaging admin information services ect Source Bowersox and Calantone CSFB IMF 1997 study Chinainfobank A T Kearney Analysis US Bn China Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function 2000 Total US 248 Bn US Bn 1 2 8 Point Final Version Logistics Industry Outlook final 22 Demand Growth In Coastal China demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai HighLow