HUMANRESOURCEPLANNING 版权所有吴三清博士 OBJECTIVES DiscusstheimportanceofHRplanning ExplaintherelationshipbetweenstrategicHRMandHRplanning ExaminesomekeyenvironmentalinfluencesonHRplanning DiscussthebasicapproachestoHRplanning DescribethewaysofforecastingHRrequirementsandavailability DiscusstherequirementsforeffectiveHRplanning Ifyoudon twanttoplanforsuccess whatrightdoyouhavetoworryaboutnon success Ifyou renotplanningwhereyouwanttobe whatreasonorexcusedoyouhaveforworryingaboutbeingnowhere TOMHOPKINS Americansalestrainer motivatorandauthor Plansgetyouintothingsbutyougottoworkyourwayout WILLROGERS 1879 1935 Americanactor performerandhumorist IMPORTANCEOFHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING ThepurposeofHRplanningistoensurethatapredeterminednumberofpersonswiththecorrectskillsareavailableataspecifiedtimeinthefuture HRplanningsystematicallyidentifieswhatmustbedonetoguaranteetheavailabilityofthehumanresourcesneededbyanorganisationtomeetitsstrategicbusinessobjectives HRplanningcannotbeundertakeninisolation Itmustbelinkedtotheorganisation soverallbusinessstrategy STRATEGICHUMANRESOURCEMANAGEMENTANDHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING Aspartofthestrategicplanningprocess HRplanningmustconsidertheenvironmentalinfluencesonanorganisation itsobjectives culture structureandHRM HRplanningmustreflecttheenvironmentaltrendsandissuesthataffectanorganisation smanagementofitshumanresources Governmentregulationsrelatingtoconditionsofemployment EEO industrialrelationsandoccupationalhealthandsafety forexample mustbeintegratedwithanorganisation sHRMstrategies Otherexamplesincludedemographicchanges thecasualisationoftheworkforce employeeliteracy skillshortages acquisitions mergersanddivestures deregulation flexibleworkschedules telecommutingandoutsourcing APPROACHESTOHUMANRESOURCEPLANNING THEQUANTITATIVEAPPROACHThequantitativeapproachseesemployeesasnumericalentitiesandgroupsthemaccordingtoage sex experience skills qualification joblevel pay performanceratingorsomeothermeansofclassification ThefocusisonforecastingHRshortages surplusesandcareerblockages itsaimistoreconcilethesupplyanddemandforhumanresourcesgiventheorganization sobjectives TrendProjection Trendprojectionortimeseriesanalysispredictionsworkbyprojectingtrendsofthepastandpresentintothefuture Thistechniqueisbasedontheassumptionthatthefuturewillbeacontinuationofthepast EconometricModelling Econometricmodellingandmultiplepredictivetechniquesinvolvebuildingcomplexcomputermodelstosimulatefutureeventsbasedonprobabilitiesandmultipleassumptions THEQUALITATIVEAPPROACH ThequalitativeapproachtoHRplanningusesexpertopinion usuallyalinemanager topredictthefuture forexample themarketingmanagerwillbeaskedtoestimatethefuturepersonnelrequirementsforthemarketingdepartment Thefocusisonevaluationsofemployeeperformanceandcapacityforpromotionaswellasmanagementandcareerdevelopment DelphiTechnique ArefinementonthisbasicapproachistheDelphitechnique apanelofexpertssuchaskeylinemanagersmakeindependentanonymouspredictionsinanswertoquestionsrelatingtoHRplanning TheresponsesareanalysedbytheHRdepartmentandtheconfidentialresultsarefedbacktotheexpertsalongwithanotherseriesofquestions Themanagersrevisetheiroriginalestimatesinlightofthisnewinformation Thisprocessisrepeateduntilaconsensusforecastisobtained FORECASTINGHUMANRESOURCEAVAILABILITY OncetheHRmanagerhasestimatedtheHRneedsoftheorganisation thenextchallengeistofilltheprojectedvacancies Presentemployeeswhocanbepromoted transferred demotedordevelopedmakeuptheinternalsupply Constraintsmayapplyontheuseofbothinternalandexternallaboursupplies forexample a promotionfromwithin policy unionrestrictions managementpreferenceandgovernmentregulations FORECASTINGTHESUPPLYOFINTERNALHUMANRESOURCES TurnoveranalysisAdetailedanalysisofwhypeopleleavetheorganisationisessentialifmeaningfulinformationistobeobtained Labourturnoverratesfrompastyearsarethebestsourceofthisinformationformostorganisation Turnoverforeachjobclassificationanddepartmentshouldalsobecalculatedbecauseturnovercanvarydramaticallyamongvariousworkfunctionsanddepartments SkillsInventory ThisconsolidatesbasicinformationonallemployeeswithintheorganisationandpermitstheHRmanagerto identifyqualifiedemployeesfordifferentjobsdeterminewhichskillsarepresentorlackingintheorganisationassesslongertermrecruitment selectionandtraininganddevelopmentrequirements Skillsinventoriescanbequitesimpleandmanuallykept ordetailedandmaintainedaspartofanintegratedHRinformationsystem HRIS ReplacementChartsReplacementchartssummarisethisinformationinvisualformforkeymanagerssotheycaneasilyidentifyboththepresentincumbentsandpotentialreplacements orlackof forgivenpositions MarkovAnalysisThisisamathematicaltechniqueusedtoforecasttheavailabilityofinternaljobcandidates Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthemovementofpersonnelamongvariousjobclassificationscanbepredictedfrompastmovements SUCCESSIONPLANNINGSuccessionplanningisconcernedwiththefillingofmanagementvacancies Itstressesthedevelopmentofhighpotentialemployeesandtakesalong termviewoftheorganisation sHRneeds TheHRmanager sroleistoensu