人民币汇率与贸易逆差关系外文文献翻译 (含：英文原文及中文译文) 文献出处：中国实事报. 2010年 10月 1日 .英文原文 The Complex Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and U.S. Deficit to ChinaJason DeanPeople criticizing Washingtons exchange rate policy believe that a sharp appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will significantly reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China.Can this view be examined historically?Those who supported the bill passed by the US House of Representatives last Wednesday believed that Beijing has refused to allow the yuan to appreciate against the US dollar, so that the dollar price of Chinas exports will be as low as rivals cant parry, thus creating a huge US trade deficit with China.Steve Bergstein, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics at the Washington think tank, is one of the most prominent advocates of legislative measures against Chinas exchange rate policy. He believes that the United States should seek to “persuade” China to allow the yuan to appreciate by 20% to 25% over the next two to three years.Bergstein stated in a testimony by the House Committee on the National Fundraising Committee on September 15 that this would reduce Chinas global current account surplus by US$350 billion to US$500 billion, and that the United States global current account deficit would decrease by US$50 billion to US$120 billion. He said that if the misalignment of Chinas exchange rate is ruled out, the United States will add about 500,000 jobs in the next few years. These jobs are mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry, and wages are above average.The Chinese government refuted these claims and stated that the exchange rate plays a minor role in the bilateral trade balance between China and the United States. However, Chinese officials also warned that if the renminbi appreciates sharply, Chinas export industry may be seriously dampened. When Premier Wen Jiabao addressed the United States in a speech earlier this month, he said that China could not afford a significant appreciation of the renminbi. He believes that a 20% to 40% appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will cause large numbers of Chinese workers to lose their jobs, cause large numbers of companies to close down, and cause severe social unrest.The relationship between the renminbi exchange rate and Chinas trade surplus is actually not clear at a glance. From July 2005 to July 2008, China allowed the yuan to appreciate 21% against the US dollar. During this period, Chinas trade surplus with the United States increased significantly. Yes, it is growth rather than reduction. In the first half of 2008, when the appreciation process was not yet over, Chinas trade surplus with the United States was US$119 billion, which was almost one-third more than the surplus before the start of appreciation and in the first half of 2005.Chinas total global trade surplus grew even faster, reaching US$395 billion in 2008, almost three times the 2005 total of US$102 billion.Chinas trade surplus declined in the first half of 2009, after the renminbi stopped appreciating. The reason is that the increasing economic recession has hit the worlds demand for export products. Chinas total global trade surplus in 2009 decreased by one-third.Those advocating a tough attitude toward Chinas exchange rate policy admit that the global economic recession has played a role in the dramatic decline in Chinas trade surplus. However, they also believe that the decline in surplus also largely reflects the lagging impact of RMB appreciation from 2005 to 2008. When Bergstein testified that the usual lag period was two to three years, these adjustments in the RMB exchange rate played an important role in the adjustment of the subsequent trade imbalance.If the appreciation of the renminbi is the main reason for the decline in Chinas surplus, people can deduce that during the current economic downturn, the US trade deficit with China has contracted faster than that of other countries. But this did not happen. In 2009, the U.S. trade deficit with China shrank by 15%, and the deficit for all countries except China shrank by half. In other words, even if the exchange rate of the Peoples Bank of RMB is higher, the net import of the United States from other countries that was hit by the recession is more than three times the net decline in imports from China.Fu Qiangen, chairman of the US-China Trade National Committee, said in a testimony by the House Committee on Raising Funds that, behind the improvement in the U.S. trade balance in 2009, the possibility that the global recession will play a role far exceeds the possibility that the renminbi exchange rate will play a lagging role. The U.S.-China Trade National Committee represents U.S. companies operating in China.The renminbi has a certain influence on trade, which basically has no doubt. The question is how big the impact is, and it is worth paying attention so far.