A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirementsfor the Degree of Master of EngineeringSlope Reliability Analysis Based on the ChanceConstrained ProgrammingCandidate : Guo ChenanMajor: Geotechnical EngineeringSupervisor: Prof. Luo XiaohuiHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430074, P.R.ChinaJan, 2013独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除文中已经标明引用的内容外，本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写过的研究成果。对本文的研究做出贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到，本声明的法律结果由本人承担。学位论文作者签名：日期：年月日学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者完全了解学校有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学校有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权华中科技大学可以将本学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存和汇编本学位论文。本论文属于保密，在_年解密后适用本授权书。不保密。（请在以上方框内打“”）学位论文作者签名：指导教师签名：日期：年月日日期：年月日华中科技大学硕士学位论文摘要边坡稳定性分析是工程界关注的重要问题之一。在工程实践中，极限平衡分析法是应用最广泛的一种方法，它具有原理简单、工程运用时间长等优点。由于边坡所处的环境具有不确定的特性，使得可靠性分析越来越受到人们的关注，目前边坡可靠性分析主要分两步，最危险滑面的确定及在确定的最危险滑面上进行可靠性分析。因此，常规的边坡可靠性分析都是在已确定的最危险滑面基础上进行不确定分析，这也就导致了目前边坡可靠性分析还不够合理。本文在对极限平衡分析及遗传算法计算进行研究分析的基础上，寻找一种方法使得边坡在最危险滑面搜索中能够考虑相应不确定性对其带来的影响。首先，论文对极限平衡理论进行了总结，以 Janbu 法为例对极限平衡计算公式进行推导，并分析了地下水对边坡稳定性的影响。在 Matlab 环境中编写了相应的程序对边坡进行了相关的计算分析，并分析了计算过程参数以验证程序的准确性及合理性，分析了土体参数对边坡稳定性的影响。其次，采用了遗传算法对边坡最危险滑面搜索进行计算。文中具体论述了边坡最危险滑面搜索遗传算法的计算过程及计算模型的建立，并对具体实例进行计算分析，探讨了相关参数的选取对遗传算法精确度和合理性的影响。最后，引入机会约束规划的相关原理，在边坡最危险滑面搜索计算过程中考虑相应不确定性对滑面搜索带来的影响，并对常规边坡遗传算法模型及机会约束遗传算法模型的计算结果进行比较。本文通过对极限平衡理论及遗传算法进行编程分析，得出了一些有益的结论，并引入机会约束规划对边坡遗传算法进行改进，为该领域的进一步研究提供了有价值的参考。关键词：边坡稳定Janbu 法滑面搜索遗传算法机会约束规划I华中科技大学硕士学位论文AbstractThe stability analysis of slope is a key problem in engineering, and the limitequilibrium analysis is one of the most widely applied methods, and it has manyadvantages such as simple and long time of practice. As the same time, people pay moreand more attention to reliability analysis, due to uncertain environment of slope. Atpresent, the main reliability analysis of slop is two steps, the determining of the mostdangerous sliding plane, and reliability analysis based on the determined sliding plane. Sothe traditional reliability analysis is uncertainty analysis that based on certain sliding surface. Inthis view, there are some unreasonable things in the traditional reliability. In this thesis, amethod that contains the influence of uncertain environment is trying to find out in the determinedof the most dangerous sliding plane.First of all, the limit equilibrium theory is summarized and the formula of limitequilibrium method is deduced with the Janbu method as an example in this thesis, theinfluence of groundwater on the slope stability also analyzed. The author writes thecorresponding programs to analyse the relevant calculation with the Matlab system, andanalyzed the calculation process parameters to verify the accuracy and rationality of theprogram, and also analyzed the influence of soil parameters on slope stability.Then, genetic algorithm is used to search the most dangerous sliding plane. Thispaper analyzed the genetic algorithm calculation process of the most dangerous slidingplane search and the establishment of calculation model. On this basis, some specificinstances are analyzed, and the influence of the relevant parameters selection on thegenetic algorithm accuracy and reasonableness.Finally, the principle of chance constrained programming is introduced to considerthe corresponding uncertainty on the sliding plane search in the search calculation processof slope most dangerous sliding surface search calculation process. And the calculationresults of conventional slope genetic algorithm model and genetic algorithm model basedon chance constrained programming were compared.In this thesis, some research of the limit equilibrium theory and slope geneticalgorithm is carried out based on Programming calculation, and some useful conclusionsare drawn, and chance constrained programming is introduced to improve the slopeII华中科技大学硕士学位论文genetic algorithm. A valuable reference will be provided for further research in this field.Key word: slope stabilityJanbu methodsliding plane searchgenetic algorithmchance constrained programmingIII华中科技大学硕士学位论文目录摘要.IAbstract.