财务报表分析与证券投资 姜国华GuohuaJiang北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授AssociateProfessorofAccountingGuanghuaSchoolofManagementPekingUniversity TheFatherofAccounting LucaPacioli 1445 1517 HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality Theknowledgewasusedtopaint theLastSupper 学过财务报表分析课程的请举手 DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930 2002 DJIA NASDAQ1990 2002 BacktoSquareOne DJIA1998 2002 DorDot bomb NASDAQ1998 2002 TheThreeMajorStockExchanges TheRegulatorofU S StockMarket TheCurrentSECCommissioners WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards InternationalAccountingStandards BigFour InternationalAccountingFirms ErnstYoung worldwiderevenue2002 10 1billions 4 3billionsintheU S PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte ToucheKPMG 中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会 ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges AmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets MarketCapitalization MarketSizerelativetoNYSE MarketPerformance ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms 1992 2004 ROE StockMarketCapitalization GDP SharetypesinChina Shares Tradable Non tradable Individual Foreign Legalperson State Ashare Bshare H N S Share ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies December 2001 Non tradable 0 1billionshares StateShares2410 6146 20 DomesticLegalPersonShares663 1712 71 Othernon tradableShares331 076 4 Totalnon tradable3404 8565 25 Tradable AShares1318 1325 26 BShares163 093 13 H Nandothershares331 946 36 TotalTradable 1813 1634 75 Total 5218 01100 LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders TunnelingAnExample Jiang LeeandYue 2005 China sStockMarket Aten yearperspective FromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast thenbecamestagnant FewernewlistingsMarketindexdownRaiseslesscapitalLesstradingactivitiesListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy TheUsersoffinancialstatements EquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion 课程结构 第一节会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节会计报表回顾 资产负债表第三节会计报表回顾 损益表第四节会计报表回顾 现金流量表第五节赢余管理与赢余质量第六节赢利能力分析第七节赢利预测第八节风险分析第九节证券价值评估 PerspectivesofThisCourse Asecurityanalyst sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues EarningsManagementandvaluation EarningsManagement Rao Teoh Wong ReviewofAccountingStudies 1998 EarningsRestatements MinWu HKUST WidespreadEarningsManipulation JiangandWang2005 Accounting basedValuation Whoaremypeers Earningsmultiples book valuemultiples salesmultiplesEVA Economicvalueadded Residualincomevaluation RIV Edward Bell OhlsonModel EBO Inoneword Sharevalue f earnings bookvalue dividend cashflow etc Accounting basedValuation 2 HowImportantisAccountingInformation January22 2003 aftermarketclosed AT T stocksymbolT announced Revenuefor4thquartershrankto 9 3billionfrom10 2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyearLossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto 611millionfrom 216million HowImportantisAccountingInformation http HowImportantisAccountingInformation IntheweekendbeforeMonday Feb 3 2003 Mattel MAT announcedfourthquarterresults Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6 9 to 1 56billion Netincomeincreasedby35 to 186 1million Earningspershare EPS increasedto42centsfrom31cents HowImportantisAccountingInformation InvestingMotto Twofriendswenthuntinginthejungle Allofasudden abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem A Run B No itishopeless wewon toverrunabear A ButIdonothavetorunfasterthanthebear Ionlyneedtorunfasterthanyou Questionsonstockmarket 作业 六人一组两个作业每次课上分别布置作业 下次课上交 打印版注意报告的形象美 作业1 每组选一家中国上市公司做投资价值分析 非金融类公司 使用该公司行业平均数据做比较 比如 行业平均利润率 或对比公司数据使用最新年报参见所附宇通客车公司分析报告 作业2 Excel股票定价建模和本课程一一对应用不同的spreadsheet录入三大报表 最好有5年的 发现赢余操纵 进行赢利分析 风险分析 赢利预测 建立价值模型和作业1使用同一家公司Spreadsheet之间要相互勾联今后评估另外一家公司只需要重新录入三大报表即可作业2的价值评估进入作业1