ProjectPortfolioManagementAnIntroduction李俊伟 项目管理者联盟 MYPM NET 更多培训资料 尽在 2 Content EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 3 TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement 1952 ModernPortfolioTheory MPT HarryMarkowitz JournalofFinance PortfolioSelection1990 HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981 F WarrenMcFarian PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems HBR toemployarisk basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects 1990s abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998 JohnThorp TheInformationParadox Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions Present portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement 4 PortfolioManagement theoverallpicture Focus StrategicPlanning Source PMSolutions PortfolioManagement DianneBridges Select PortfolioManagement Manage ProjectManagement 5 Content EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 更多培训资料 尽在 6 TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio Don tputallyoureggsinonebasket Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetraitinhumanbeings 7 ReturnandRiskinFinancialMarket expectedreturn standarddeviation capitalappreciation growthofincome 061218243036 20181614121086420 income inflation T bills intermediate termgovernmentbonds long termgovernmentbonds long termcorporatebonds largecompanystocks smallcompanystocks stabilityofprincipal 8 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities Theexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns 更多培训资料 尽在 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities 10 Thetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents 10 TheRoleofCombiningSecurities expectedreturn risk betterperformance Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk 11 TheEfficientFrontier OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssets expectedreturn risk standarddeviationofreturns impossibleportfolios dominatedportfolios efficientfrontier TheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier 12 TheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification Asportfoliosizeincreases totalportfoliorisk onaverage declines Afteracertainpoint however themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest totalrisk Non diversifiablerisk numberofsecurities Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis 13 RiskReductionwithDiversification 14 Marketorsystematicrisk riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk Systematic Unsystematic ComponentsofRisk 15 Two SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations 16 Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient 1 0 1 0Thesmallerthecorrelation thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf 1 0 noriskreductionispossible PortfolioRisk Return CorrelationEffects 17 StructuringaPortfolio AssetAllocation individualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults 更多培训资料 尽在 18 Content EmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement PPM PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM ProcessandTechniques 19 Whatisprojectportfoliomanagement PortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities assessingtheorganizationalfit analyzingthecosts benefits andrisks anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis doingtherightthing selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold 20 PortfolioManagementis Defininggoalsandobjectives clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding accelerating andmakingtradeoffs determinehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying eliminating minimizing anddiversifyingrisk selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformance understandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjective havetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade 21 PortfolioManagementisNot Doingaseriesofproject specificcalculationsandanalyses suchasreturnoninvestment benefit costanalysis netpresentvalue paybackperiod rateofreturn andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk theseareprojectspecificCollectingafter the marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement 22 ThebenefitsofPortfolioManagement HavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdi