LighteningStrikesTwice CaliforniaFacesaRealRiskofASecondPowerCrisis LakeTahoeEnergyConference July30 2004 CONFIDENTIAL Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel Nopartofitmaybecirculated quoted orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinseyitisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion TakingTheRightStepsToEnsureAPowerfulFuture 更多免费资料 尽在 1 5stepsthatwillensurealong termsustainablemarketforpower THESTATEISATRISKOFANOTHERPOWERCRISIS BUT5KEYSTEPSWILLHELPTOENSUREASUSTAINABLEPOWERMARKET Actionneedstobetakentodaytopreventanotherenergycrisis Newgenerationneedstobebuilttoday giventhelongleadtime andamechanismformarket basedcontractswithutilitiesneedstobeintroducedCaliforniashouldintroducemandatorytime of usemeteringforallclassesofcustomersNewtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbythePUC ISO CEC andFERCAformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreservetarget e g 15 20 needstobeinplaceby2006TheStateshouldre introduceelementsofretailchoice providinganopportunityforlargeconsumerstoshopforpower CECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical emergency levelsifwehaveahotsummerUnfortunately theCEC sdemandestimatesappearlowrelativetotrendanda highdemandcase i e hotsummer maybeaslikelyasa1 in 5occurrenceTakingintoaccountrealisticlevelsoffuturedemand operatingreservescouldbeextremelytightby2006 aslowas5 8 ina1 in 5yeardemandcase 2 THESTATE SENERGYAGENCIESPROJECTANEAR TERMRISKOFLOWRESERVEMARGINSINAHOTYEAR Operatingreservemargincalculatedas AvailableSupply PeakDemand PeakDemand Source CaliforniaEnergyCommission July8 2004updatetoJune24 2004report 1 in 10year hot 1 in 2year average CECESTIMATES August2005 August2006 August2007 August2008 ProjectedCaliforniastateoperatingreservemargin Percent August2004 7 target StageOneemergencylevel 5 target StageTwoemergencylevel Reservemarginsconsistentlydropbeginningin2006 Demand 3 ENERGYAGENCYFORECASTSOFFUTUREDEMANDAREOPTIMISTICCOMPAREDTOALTERNATIVEPROJECTIONS ESTIMATESOF1 IN 2YEARPEAKDEMAND Peakdemand averageweather afterconservationGW Regressionprojectionbasedonhistoricweather historicGSP currentGSPprojections 5 6 andaverageweather BasedonhistoricCAGRforpeakdemandgrowthbeforeincludingconservation underlyinggrowthof1 88 for1983 2003 andadjustedforexpected2004 2008conservationinCalifornia providedbyCEC Source CaliforniaEnergyCommission BureauofEconomicAnalysis E Regressionmodel CEC July2004 Trend Differentmodelsofdemand CEC May2003 For2006 theCEC sestimateis 1 000MWbelowtrend lineestimatesand 2 100MWbelowaregressionmodelestimate 4 THEPOTENTIALFORA HIGHDEMANDCASE ISASHIGHASA1 IN 5EVENT RATHERTHANJUSTA1 IN 10EVENT 1in2demand 1in5demand 1in10demand DistributionofaveragestatewidepeaktemperatureNumberofyearsobservedoverpast40years BasedonBAEFregression modelestimatesof2006peakdemandSource CaliforniaEnergyCommission TemperaturerangeDegreesFahrenheit 8outofthelast40years or20 peaktemperatureshavebeen101degreesorhigherThereislittledemanddifference though between101degreesand101 5degrees 1in10101 5 1in5101 Potential2006peakdemand GW BASEDONHISTORICDATA 3 4 2 7 5 TAKINGINTOACCOUNTADIFFERENTVIEWOFFUTUREDEMAND THERISKOFSHORTAGESISEVENSTARKER Operatingreservemargincalculatedas AvailableSupply PeakDemand PeakDemand Asmuchas2 000MWwouldberequiredtomaintainaplanningreservemarginof15 forthe1 in 5case whichwouldequatetoa1 in 2operatingreserveof12 1 anda1 in 5operatingreserveof9 1 Source CaliforniaEnergyCommission July8 2004updatetoJune24 2004report McKinseyanalysis 1in5year 1in2year BAEFESTIMATE 7 target StageOneemergencylevel 750MWofnewcapacitywillbeneededbefore2006tomaintaina7 operatingreserveundera1 in 5case Giventheleadtimefornewconstruction permittinganddemandsidemanagementneedstobegintoday August2005 August2006 August2007 August2008 ProjectedCaliforniastateoperatingreservemargin Percent 5 target StageTwoemergencylevel Demand 6 THESTATEISATRISKOFANOTHERPOWERCRISIS BUT5KEYSTEPSWILLHELPTOENSUREASUSTAINABLEPOWERMARKET 5stepsthatwillensurealong termsustainablemarketforpower Actionneedstobetakentodaytopreventanotherenergycrisis Newgenerationneedstobebuilttoday giventhelongleadtime andamechanismformarket basedcontractswithutilitiesneedstobeintroducedCaliforniashouldintroducemandatorytime of usemeteringforallclassesofcustomersNewtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbythePUC ISO CEC andFERCAformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreservetarget e g 15 20 needstobeinplaceby2006TheStateshouldre introduceelementsofretailchoice providinganopportunityforlargeconsumerstoshopforpower CECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical emergency levelsifwehaveahotsummerUnfortunately theCEC sdemandestimatesappearlowrelativetotrendanda highdemandcase i e hotsummer maybeaslikelyasa1 in 5occurrenceTakingintoaccountrealisticlevelsoffuturedemand operatingreservescouldbeextremelytightby2006 aslowas5 8 ina1 in 5yeardemandcase 7 MARKET BASEDLONG T