Unit6 Risk Warmer BusinessBriefRiskThechanceofharm injuryorloss threadThechanceofchangeofdirection growingandmakingprofits opportunityTrade off betweenriskandreward 利害 有多大利 就有多大的害 物物交换 Warmer Theworldismuchriskiertoday Becauseeverythingismuchmoreinterconnected risk managementexpertRonDembo gaveupaprofessorshipatYaleUniversitytolaunchhiscompany Hasthereeverbeenariskiertimetobeinbusiness Allbusinessisbuiltonrisk Warmer RisksinbusinessKidnappingofmangersConfiscationofassets 没收 充公 Devaluationofshares currencyBeextorted illegallybeforcedtogivemoney 勒索 Beinginsolvency nothavingenoughmoneytopaydebts 无力偿还债务 Facingfraudandcorruption Warmer Industrialespionage 商业间谍行为 Invest puttingmoneyintoanewventureVenturecapitalist whoputmoneyintosuchbusinessesspreadtheirrisksothatthepaybackfromoneortwosuccessfulventureswillhopefullymorethancompensateforthemoneylostinthefailures Warmer Reputationalrisk brandsuicide productliabilityclaim 产品质量承诺书 Productrecalls 产品召回 Theriskofmanagementcomplacency 自满 Warmer NoRisk NoRewardyou llmeetpeopleandorganizationsthatarestillpreparedtogamble intelligently shrewdly selectively eveninaperiodofinsecurityandinstability Theirstoriesofferlessonsinstrategy marketing leadership R D andinnovation Theyalsoremindusthatthegoodmoveswedon tmakecanbeasconsequentialasthebadmoveswedomake thatplayingitsafeisn talwaysplayingitsmart Warmer Strategy Youcan tthinktraditionallyinthesecircumstances Today Bowersunderstands justbecausesomethinghasn thappenedbeforedoesn tmeanthatitwon thappennow orsoon orsometime Thefutureisdiscontinuousand therefore riskybydefinition Byspeedingtheflowofinformation technologyhasconcentratedthatriskevenmore Warmer PlayingItSafe Part1 TheGodGambleIfoneoutcomeseemsoverwhelminglypreferable takeit evenifitisnotcertain Marketing Tonottakeariskistoriskbeingignored He sstillsurprisedthatCasioboughtin ThatwasthelastideaIeverexpectedaclienttobuy hesays Wow Ineverexpectedthatfromyourcompany Howtheheckdidtheygetthatoneapproved unconventionalrelationshipbuilding Whatitreallydoesispushclientstowardthemarketingedge Warmer PlayingItSafe Part2 Howmuchfuelisenough AplanedepartsNewark NewJerseyforLosAngeles Iftheflightgoessmoothly itwillburnaround40 000poundsoffuel Ifthereareglitches 小误差 suchaslousyweatherorcongestionoverLAX theplanewillneedmorefuel Everypoundoffueladdscostandweight requiringevenmorefuel Theproblem Howmuchisjustenough Toomuch andtheplaneincursmorecosts Toolittle andtheplanemayhavetodiverttoanotherdestination anoutcomethat slesssafeandfarmoreexpensive Warmer Leadership Wealthiscreatedduringperiodsofuncertainty Everythingbadthathashappenedduringthepastyear thedotcomimplosion therecession terror thewar destroyedtheillusionthatweoperateinaworldthatiscontinuousandcontinuouslyprosperous Asitturnsout ourworldisnothinglikethat Ourlivesareroutinelydisrupted ourworkdislocated Makingmoneydependsonidentifyingopportunitiesinaturbulentmarketplace Wind Warmer 1Disciplinedopportunism 2Continuouslearning andunlearning3Adaptiveexperimentation Warmer Howtomanagerisk Ifyou renotmanagingrisk youcan tclaimtobemanagingyourbusiness RonDembo Warmer ThePastIsn tAlwaysPrologueManagingriskmeansthinkingaboutthefuture notaboutthepast Someofthebestmindsinbusinessmisunderstandthispoint Weallgetcomfortablebasingourstrategiesforthefutureonthepast That swhyrisksthatwedidn tanticipatecantakeusbysurprise andwhyit ssohardtoreckonwitheventsforwhichthereisnoprecedent TheeurodebutedlastJanuary There sneverbeenaeurobefore Howwillitaffecthowwethinkaboutrisk Y2Khasneverhappenedbefore Howdoweplanforit Warmer DifferentFutures DifferentRisksThere snosuchthingas thefuture Whenitcomestorisk themostcommonerrorthatpeoplemakeistothinkaboutthefutureintermsofasinglescenario 方案 Why Well lookatthenewspapers listentotheanalysts They refullofpredictions Interestrateswillbelower Internetstockswillcrash TheDowwillgodown Theseso calledexpertshavenoideawhat sgoingtohappen Neverconfuseaforecastwithascenario Warmer Regrets TooFewtoMention Lotsofpeoplethinkaboutriskintermsof probabilities Butprobabilityisawayofanalyzingeventsthatoccurmanytimes Mostbusinessdecisionsareone timeevents Thinkingaboutprobabilitydoesn thelpmuchwiththosedecisions Instead youshouldthinkaboutwhatIcall regret Regretisn tthesameasdisappointment Regretissensitivetospecificcircumstances anditaddsapsychologicalfactortoyourchoices Thegreatchanceifyoutakeit youmaymakeagreatachievement ifyoumissit thatnevercomeagaintoyourlife Warmer Formphraseswith risky RiskybusinessRiskydealRiskyinvestmentRiskylendingRiskyprojectRiskystrategyRiskyundertaking Understandthequotation Thepolicyofbeingtoocautiousisthegreatestriskofall JarwaharlaNehru 1899 1964 India sfirstPrimeMinister Startingup TaskC D1doingnothing2creditorguaranteerisk3politicalrisk4riskofcatastropheordisruption theriskofnotbeingabletocontinuebusinessasusualbecauseofsomeunforeseenevent Vocabulary describingrisk Vocabulary describingrisk TaskB1e2f3g4d5c6b7a Vocabulary describingrisk TaskCHigh Great huge serious significant substantial t