- I - 摘 要 目前我国的大气污染问题仍然严重，多种污染物的排放量居于全球首位。从全 国的大气污染情况来看，河北省位于全国前列。沧州市是河北省重要的工业城市之 一，为使其经济平稳快速的发展，做好大气污染的防控工作是必经之路。 首先选取二氧化硫、二氧化氮和可吸入颗粒物为研究因子。这三种污染物的浓 度数据都是通过中国空气质量在线监测分析平台获取得到的。根据三种污染物的季 度、月份和年份的浓度变化状况，对空气质量进行了描述性统计分析，之后运用 API 指数评价、综合污染指数评价和模糊综合评价对沧州市空气质量进行了综合性 评价，得出沧州市整体空气质量在逐渐改善。接着选取气温、相对湿度、风级作为 影响空气质量的三个气象因素，根据 Spearman 秩相关系数和灰色关联度，分析了 气象因素对三种污染物的相关性。最后，对沧州市空气质量进行了时间序列预测， 得出 2019 年各月份的预测值，根据已知的实际值，得出模型的总体相对误差相对 误差较小，说明预测效果较好。 关键词：沧州市；空气质量评价；气象影响因素；时间序列预测 - II - Abstract At present, the problem of air pollution in China is still serious, and the discharge of many pollutants ranks first in the world. From the national air pollution situation, Hebei Province is in the forefront of the country. Handan is one of the important industrial cities in Hebei Province. In order to make its economy develop steadily and rapidly, it is necessary to do a good job in air pollution prevention and control. Firstly, the pollution factors of air quality in Handan City are selected. Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and inhalable particulate matter are taken as the research objects in this paper. The concentration data of these three pollutants are obtained through China Air Quality Online Monitoring and Analysis Platform. According to the seasonal, monthly and annual concentration changes of the three pollutants, the descriptive statistical analysis of air quality was carried out. Then, the comprehensive air quality of Handan was evaluated by API index evaluation, comprehensive pollution index evaluation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. It was concluded that the overall air quality of Handan was gradually improving. Then, temperature, relative humidity and wind level are selected as the three meteorological factors affecting air quality. According to Spearman rank correlation coefficient and grey correlation degree, the correlation of meteorological factors to the three pollutants is analyzed. Finally, the air quality of Handan city is forecasted by time series, and the forecast values of each month in 2019 are obtained. According to the known actual values, the relative error of the overall relative error of the model is smaller, which shows that the prediction effect is better. Keywords：Handan; air quality assessment; meteorological influencing factors; time series forecasting 目 录 - III - 目 录 摘 要.I Abstract.II 第 1 章 绪 论.1 1.1 研究背景.1 1.2 研究意义.1 1.3 国内外研究现状.2 第 2 章 沧州市空气质量评价.3 2.1 综合统计评价.3 2.1.1 2018 季度数据分析.3 2.1.2 2017 年和 2018 年年度数据分析.4 2.1.3 2014 年至 2018 年沧州市大气环境质量变化情况.6 2.2 API 评价.7 2.3 综合污染指数评价.7 2.4 模糊综合评价.10 2.4.1 研究方法.10 2.4.2 结果与分析.12 2.5 本章小结.14 第 3 章 影响空气质量的气象因素分析及指标选取.15 3.1 气象因素分析.15 3.1.1 风的影响.15 3.1.2 大气湍流的影响.15 3.1.3 大气稳定度的影响.15 3.2 气象因素指标的选取.