ClimateChangeandWater:Impacts&ManagementNeeds气候变化与水资源：影响与管理需求,RogerCalowWaterPolicyProgramme,ODI罗杰,Overview概述,Thebigpicture概括Irrigationsurfacewatersystems灌溉地表水系统3.Irrigation-groundwatereconomies灌溉地下水节约4.Conclusions总结,Themostvulnerable?最脆弱群体？,Driversofchange&managementchallenges变化动因&管理挑战,Majordrivers?主要动因？urbanisation,industrialisation,consumption.withclimatechangeoverlayAwatercrisis?水危机？whogetswhat(Q,Q,R)inavariableclimate:farmsvscities,upstreamvsdownstream,environmentalvshumanAdaptationchallenge?适应挑战？mediatingbetweencompetingclaims:rangeofdifferentscalesAgriculturalfutures?农业未来？.agriculturewilllosewater.How?Impactsonpoorerhouseholds?,WaterwithdrawalsinHebeibysector,19902003河北省分部门采水量,Source:HebeiprovincialWRDStatisticalYearbooks,YellowRiverflows1956-2000黄河水流量,YellowRiverAllocationPlan（billionm3）,WaterallocationintheYellowRiverBasin黄河流域水资源配给,Permit1HangjinID:0.41bcmPermits2&3HetaoID:4.77bcmDefinedundertheYRCCsWaterAllocationPlan(longterm)andadjustedunderAnnualRegulationPlans(annual)Definingandprotectingfarmersrights?,Irrigationdiversion灌溉,Waterallocationbasintohousehold水资源分配从流域到用户,BasinAllocationAgreement,HangjinIrrigationDistrict280GL（abstraction),HetaoIrrigationDistrict,Abstractionpermits,WaterUserAssociations,WaterUserAssociations,ChannelLosses,Otherusers,Groupwaterentitlements,Watercertificates,Household,Household,Hangjin-channellining夯井分渠灌溉,Channelliningandwatertransfer:winnersandlosers?分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？,KeymessagesIDs&watertransfers关键点IDs与水资源配给,IrrigationwilllosemarketshareSupplywillfluctuate.variabilitywillincreaseDeepeningrightsreform(basintofarmer)willgrowinimportanceProtectingtheinterestsofpoorerhouseholdsaswaterisreallocatedwilldependon:Informalclaims(WUAs,contracting)Soundsciencebasinefficiencies,consumptiverightsWillingnesstorecogniseeffectson3rdparties&environmentalflows,Water&AgriculturalManagementinHebei河北省水资源与农业管理,TotalwaterwithdrawalsinBashangcounties,19952005坝上县水资源抽取总量,Source:personalcommunication,ZhangjiakouCityWaterAffairsBureau2005.,GroundwaterlevelchangesrecordedforthreeBashangcounties,20032005地下水水位变化记录,Source:ZhangjiakouCityWaterAffairsBureau,2006.,PredictedgroundwaterleveldeclinesintheBashang可预测地下水位下降情况,Source:WAMH2004.Note:drawdownmodelledovera10yearperiodbasedon2003estimatesofgroundwaterabstractionandrecharge.,IrrigationdevelopmentandcontrolareasintheBashang,Controlareas-welldrillingintheBashang控制区井水抽取,Groundwatermanagementchallenge地下水管理挑战,Source:Shah,2004,WUAs"as,Inthelong-term:长期Scale-uptoreducefree-ridingTiequotastovariablesharesofaquifersafeyield,Progress:进展SharedallocationsConservationincentivesDevolvedmanagement,Afarmeconomy?农业经济？,Shiftinglivelihoods生活水平变化,RuraljobsRNFE,migrationRuralincomesdiverse,dispersedDependenceonCPRs-decliningDriversofchangesmallpush,bigpullSourcesofvulnerabilityincomeshocksNatureofcommunityboundariesblurringRuraldevelopmentnarrativeincome,employmentVulnerablearelockedintotheoldeconomy,Keymessagesprotectinghighvalueaquifers&services主要信息保护高价值地下蓄水层&服务,GroundwateraccesskeyroleinpovertyreductionButmonitoringpatchy,numbersuncertain,impactsofclimatechangeunclearProtectingtheinterestsofpoorerhouseholdswilldependon:ExtendingaccesstoGWirrigationPrioritisingdomesticwaterProtectingkeyreservesAdifferentapproachtomanagementdevolvingtasksandfunctionssupportedbysoundscience,Adaptation&development适应与发展,Conclusions结论,Adaptationasdevelopment发展型适应Climateasonepressure气候压力Agricultureasawaterbank农业=水资源银行Ruralhouseholdsaswinners&loserswhoarethelosers?谁才是赢家与输家？,Thankyou谢谢Beijing,February2010r.calowodi.org.ukwww.odi.org.ukwpp,