l 我国上市公司资本结构影响因素分析 基于面板数据的实证研究会计学 专业研究生： 陈昱霏 指导教师： 吴岚摘 要资本结构反映了企业全部金融关系和融资方式，整体上显示出企业控制权的分配关系;资本结构分析对企业融资成本计算有直接影响，进而影响企业价值衡量，是财务管理中非常重要的部分。经过多年的发展，国外对资本结构的探索不管是理论研究还是实证研究方面都有了重大的进步。但遗憾的是，国家制度环境等因素对资本结构也有不可忽视的影响，国外研究者的研究成果不能完全套用至中国上市公司的融资决策动因深层分析上。中国制度环境特殊性在股票市场、债券市场、信贷市场以及法律体系上都有体现。这些特点在各方面都对企业的资本结构有影响。制度环境的影响随着政府一系列改革措施的实施有弱化迹象，但仍深刻影响企业的筹资决策。笔者正是在此背景下，对我国上市公司资本结构的影响因素进行专门研究，以丰富和完善资本结构的相关理论与实务。本文首先从资本结构的概念入手，分别阐述了现代资本结构理论的几大经典理论：资本结构的MM理论、权衡理论、代理成本理论、信号传递理论、优序融资理论（啄食理论）、市场时机理论、产业组织理论以及控制权理论；在此基础上，综述了海内外学者在理论方面和实证方面的研究成果，进一步分析了我国特殊的制度环境，并结合资本结构经典理论与我国制度环境对我国上市公司资本结构影响因素进行分析与假设。为了把握中国上市公司融资特点，笔者利用上市公司财务数据，对数据进行描述性统计后得出中国上市公司资本结构呈现如下特点：上市公司负债率一直比较稳定，但相比发达国家企业较低；短期负债比例虽然有所下降，但仍远高于长期负债比例。企业稳定性较高，即使中国受全球金融危机与经济低迷波及，我国企业盈利性波动较小，公司规模保持稳定。上市公司2006年-2011年最大的改变体现在长、短期负债比例变动、固定资产比率变动（由高新技术产业发展引起）以及非流通股比例变动上。通过面板数据模型对样本进行分析得到以下结果：企业盈利性与短期负债占总资产比、资产负债比率显著负相关，对长期负债占总资产比影响并不显著；企业资产有形性与短期负债占总资产比、资产负债比率显著正相关，对长期负债占总资产比影响并不显著；企业成长性与短期负债占总资产比在90%的置信区间内显著负相关，与长期负债占总资产比显著正相关，对资产负债率影响不显著；企业规模与短期负债占总资产比、长期负债占总资产比、资产负债率显著负相关；变异性与企业短期负债占总资产比和资产负债率显著正相关，对非流动负债占总资产比率影响却并不显著；企业非流通股比例与短期负债占总资产比、长期负债占总资产比、资产负债比率显著负相关；非负债税盾对资本结构影响并不显著。最后，文章在上述定性分析以及定量分析基础上，结合中国宏观制度背景，分别从宏观（国家层面）和微观（企业层面）角度对上市公司资本结构优化提出了相关建议。关键词：资本结构 影响因素 面板数据模型 制度背景 优化建议A Study of the Determinants of Capital Structure of Chinese Listed Companies-Based on Panel DataMajor:AccountingPostgraduate: Chen YufeiChen Yufei Supervisor: Wu Lanu LanAbstractCapital structure of a firm reflects its ways of financing and its relationships with financial organizations, deciding its distribution methods of wealth as a whole. The analysis of capital structure has direct influence on firms financing cost and firms value, therefore capital structure analysis composes a very important part of financial management.After a long time of researching, the study of this issue, both theoretical and empirical, has approached great achievements in developed countries. However, institutional background has great effect on firms capital structure; the results of those researches can not apply to firms in China directly. The characters of equity market，bond market ,credit market and legal system in China have influenced firms capital structure in many aspects. The influence of institutional background has waned after the application of series of policies, but affects firms decisions still. This study defines capital structure, and then introduces several classical theories sourced from developed countries, such as MMs theory, agency cost theory, trade off theory, and market timing theory and so on. Based on the results of descriptive statistics, the following characters of firms capital structure can be got: lower debt rate than in developed countries and high ratio of short term debt. In general, firms in China have stable profitability, even after the global financial crisis, and stable firm size. The biggest changes happened in year 2006 to year 2011 including the decrease of the ratio of short term debt ,the ratio of fixed asset to total asset and the scale of non-tradable shares.Based on the above theoretical analysis, this study brings out seven hypotheses under Chinese special institutional background and builds up panel data model for empirical research and gets the following conclusions: profitability negatively is in relation with the ratio of short term debt to total asset and the ratio of total debt to asset in a significant level, but not significantly relate to the ratio of long term debt to total asset; tangibility positively relate the ratio of short term debt to total asset and the ratio of total debt to asset in a significant level, but not significantly relate to the ratio of long term debt to total asset; the growth opportunity of enterprises and ratio of short term debt to total asset negative correlate, but positively relate to long term debt to total asset and not significantly relate to the ratio of total debt to total asset; firm size and the three ratios appear in a obvious negative correlation; volatility has positive correlation with the ratio of short term debt to total asset and the ratio of total debt to total asset; non-tradable share percentage and the three ratios appear in a obvious negative correlation. Non-debt tax shield has no significant effect on capital structure.In the end, this paper brings out several suggestions on optimizing the firms capital structure.Key words: capital structure determinates panel data model institutional background optimizing suggestions目 录1 绪论11.1 选题背景和意义11.2 论文研究的主要方法和思路21.3 论文的结构与主要内容22 资本结构的基本概念及相关理论42.1 资本结构的基本概念42.1.1资本结构的定义42.1.2 资本结构的分类42.2 有关资本结构的基础理论42.2.1 资本结构的MM理论42.2.2 权衡理论62.2.3 代理成本理论82.2.4 信号传递理论102.2.5 优序融资理论（啄食理论）102.2.6 市场时机理论112.2.7 产业组织理论112.2.8 控制权理论122.3 国内外有关资本结构的研究文献综述122.3.1 国外相关研究文献综述122.3.2 国内相关研究文献综述143 中国特殊