第七章 并购估价,财务分析 上市公司估值 非上市公司估值,7.1 财务分析,7.1.1 主要的财务报表,1、Balance Sheet 2、Income Statement 3、Statement of Cash Flows,1、Balance Sheet,Assets Current Long-term Liability and stockholders equity,1、Balance Sheet,负债 应付账款，从供应商处赊购欠款 应付票据，对外短期负债 应计费用，尚未结清的费用 长期负债，超过一年，公司债权或定期贷款，查看附注说明，注意隐性负债,1、Balance Sheet,所有者权益 优先股，隐性的毒丸防御措施 普通股，每个类别的投票权是否相同 留存收益，未发放的股利，不能作为现金使用，仅用于厂房设备等投资,1、Balance Sheet,考察资产负债表要考虑的要素 时间因素 现金资产与非现金资产 库存核算 债务声明，如虚报，不充分不完全的声明 低质资产，如容易受到政策影响的资产 夸大应收项目数额 证券估价 无形资产,Consolidated Balance Sheet for Hewlett-Packard, 2006,2、Income Statement,Four broad classes: Cost of goods sold General and administrative expenses Interest expense Taxes on earnings,Consolidated Statement of Income for Hewlett-Packard, 2006,2、Income Statement,关于损益表的几个问题 折旧方法、年限 库存估价（影响COGS，从而影响税收和净利润） 收益品质和收入识别，求助会计方法产生收益,3、Statement of Cash Flows,Income statement and balance sheets are based on accrual methods of accounting Statement of cash flows tracks the cash implications of transaction, recognizes only transactions in which cash changes hands Example: if goods are sold now, with payment due in 60 days. Income statement will treat the revenue as generated when the sale occurs, balance sheet will be immediately augmented by accounts receivable, but the statement of cash flows will not show an increase in available cash until the bill is paid,3、Statement of Cash Flows,提供大量关于公司现金收入和支出的有价值信息，说明公司运营、投资、财务决策对现金头寸产生的影响 通过分析现金流量表，可以判断公司未来产生现金流入的能力 公司现金流与净利润之间的差额可以表示收益的品质高低，差额越小则收益品质越高（或用现金流与净利润的比值）,Statement of Cash Flows for Hewlett-Packard, 2006,Free Cash Flow,Discount the free cash flow for the firm Components of free cash flow After tax EBIT Depreciation Capital expenditures Increase in net working capital,Free Cash Flow,FCFF = EBIT (1- tc) + Depreciation Capital expenditures Increase in NWC where: EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes tc = the corporate tax rate NWC = net working capital,Free Cash Flow,Another approach focuses on the free cash flow to the equity holders (FCFE) and discounts the cash flows directly at the cost of equity FCFE = FCFF Interest expense (1- tc) + Increases in net debt,7.1.2 Type of Financial Ratios,1、Liquidity Ratios 2、Turnover or Asset Utilization Ratios 3、Leverage Ratios 4、Profitability Ratios 5、Market Price Ratios,1、Liquidity Ratios,Current Ratio= Current Assets Current Liabilities Quick Ratio= Current Assets - Inventory Current Liabilities Working capital = current assets-current liability,2、Turnover and other asset utilization ratios,应收账款平均回收期 回收期应与公司的账款回收政策比较 判断客户尽早支付是否由于公司对提前支付实施现金折扣政策引起 收购中要考虑收购方与目标公司间的账款回收政策和信用政策是否匹配,2、Turnover and other asset utilization ratios,Average Collection Period Accounts Receivable Sales Per Day Days to Sell Inventory Inventory Sales Per Day,2、Turnover and other asset utilization ratios,Inventory turnover=COGS/ave inventory 比较行业水平和历史水平 过低库存实现的高库存率意味着短缺 过渡使用信用政策，降低利润为代价加快库存周转 较低的库存周转率，目标公司流动性不足，或库存销售前景差,2、Turnover and other asset utilization ratios,Fixed asset turnover=sales/ave fixed assets 表明固定资产自身价值与其对销售做出的贡献之比，对资本密集型企业非常重要。 对于新购固定资产账面价值高，会降低该比值 购买时通货膨胀率越高则越不准 Total Asset Turnover Sales/Total Assets 表示所有资源的有效程度,Summary of Key Financial Ratios: Leverage, Asset Utilization, Liquidity, Profitability and Market Price,3、Leverage Ratios,体现公司承担债务的程度 通过与行业均值比较 收购前要计算未来几年内的财务杠杆，预计偿还债务给公司带来的影响，确定被收购的公司多少年后能回到行业的平均水平,3、Leverage Ratios,Debt to Assets % total debt / total asset 对于收购者，目标公司有大量可变现固定资产，同时该比值低，则存在较大举债空间，为理想收购对象 对于目标公司，当该比值远低于行业平均水平，则容易受到收购冲击，可着手增加债务,3、Leverage Ratios,Debt to Equity % Long Term Debt /Shareholders Equity Long Term liability rate % = Long Term Debt / (Long Term Debt +Shareholders Equity) 也叫资本化率（capitalization rate）长期负债占公司永久融资的百分比，该比例低则永久融资中权益比重大，越受收购者青睐,3、Leverage Ratios,Times Interest Earned= Earnings Before Int. & Taxes Interest Expense Fixed Charge Coverage Ratios= EBIT/ (Lease Payments + Principal Repayments+ Preferred Dividends),4、Profitability Ratios,Net Profit Margin % Net Income Sales Operating Profit Margin % Earnings Before Int. & Taxes Sales,4、Profitability Ratios,ROE: measures the profitability for contributors of equity capital ROE=Net income/equity 股权价值为账面价值，可以用市值代替 受财务杠杆影响，债务增加，提高ROE，但实际财务风险增大 ROA: measures the profitability for all contributors of capital ROA=EBIT/asset 资产是历史价值，当市值远低于账面价值时,5、Market Price Ratios,基于市场的比率，反映了市场对于公司财务情况的评价，同时也反映了市场对于公司能否在未来向股东提供较高投资回报率的预期 市盈率（P/E） 该值较高，表明投资者对公司未来有信心 受到整个市场表现的影响，因此可以用过去30天的平均股价代替当前股价。 对于高增长阶段的公司，可用最近一季度的收益乘以4代替年收益,5、Market Price Ratios,Price to Earnings Market Price of Stock Earnings Market-to-Book-Value Market Price of Stock Book Value Per Share,6、特殊非标准财务比率,对特定行业考虑特殊因素 如，使用劳动力资源的有效性，可以计算员工人数与sales之比 考虑营销费用或研发费用对sales的贡献 数据难获得，总结趋势,7.2 上市公司估值,7.2.1 管理价值,并购给管理者的压力 尽全力提高公司价值以降低被收购的概率 管理者迫于收购压力采取各种行动提高股东的投资价值，最终使得股东收益 股价成为管理绩效的晴雨表,7.2.2 股票估价方法,DDM Stock price should equal the present value of all expected future dividends into perpetuity,7.2.2 股票估价方法,Constant Growth Model Assuming dividends are trending upward at a stable growth rate g g = constant perpetual growth rate,7.2.2 股票估价方法,股利D的