一 寸 光 阴 不 可 轻 1 Globalization is sweeping aside national borders and changing relations between nations. What impact does this have on national identities and loyalties? Are they strengthened or weakened? The author investigates. 全球化正在扫除国界、 改变国与国之间的关系。 这对国家的认同和对国家的忠诚会带 来什么影响呢？它们会得到加强还是削弱？作者对这些问题进行了探讨。 In Search of Davos ManPeter Gumbel 1. William Browder was born in Princeton, New Jersey, grew up in Chicago, and studied at Stanford University in California. But dont call him an American. For the past 16 of his 40 years he has lived outside the U.S., first in London and then, from 1996, in Moscow, where he runs his own investment firm. Browder now manages $1.6 billion in assets. In 1998 he gave up his American passport to become a British citizen, since his life is now centered in Europe. National identity makes no difference for me, he says. I feel completely international. If you have four good friends and you like what you are doing, it doesnt matter where you are. Thats globalization. 寻找达沃斯人 彼得甘贝尔 威廉布劳德出生于新泽西州的普林斯顿，在芝加哥长大，就读于加利福尼亚州的斯 坦福大学。但别叫他美国人。他今年 40 岁，过去 16 年来一直生活在美国以外的地方，先是 在伦敦，1996 年后在莫斯科经营他自己的投资公司。布劳德如今掌管着价值 16 亿美元的资 产。1998 年，他放弃美国护照，成为英国公民，因为他现在的生活中心在欧洲。 “国家认同 对我来说不重要， ”他说， “我觉得自己完全是个国际人。如果你有四个朋友，又喜欢你所做 的事情，那么你在哪儿无关紧要。这就是全球化。 ” 2. Alex Mandl is also a fervent believer in globalization, but he views himself very differently. A former president of AT the corporations and countries that benefited from it were largely content to treat vast parts of the world as places to mine natural resources or sell finished products. Even as the globalization of capital accelerated in the 1980s, most foreign investment was between relatively wealthy countries, not from wealthy countries into poorer ones. U.S. technology, companies and money were often at the forefront of this movement. 一 寸 光 阴 不 可 轻 3 全球贸易已经持续了几个世纪； 过去从中获益的企业和国家在很大程度上满足于将世 界上的广大地区视为自然资源的开采地或成品的销售地。 即便到了 20 世纪 80 年代， 资本全 球化已经加速， 大多数外国投资仍在相对富裕的国家之间进行， 而不是从富裕国家流向较贫 穷国家。美国的技术、企业和资金通常处于这一流动的前沿。 7. However the past two decades have witnessed the rise of other significant players. The developed world is beating a path to Chinas and Indias door and Chinese and Indian companies, in turn, have started to look overseas for some of their future growth. Beijing has even started what it calls a Going Out policy that encourages Chinese firms to buy assets overseas. Asian nations are creating a remarkable environment of innovation, says John Chambers, chief executive of Cisco Systems. China and India are graduating currently more than five times the number of engineers that we are here in the U.S. That means that U.S. and European companies are now facing high-quality, low-cost competition from overseas. No wonder so many Western workers worry about losing their jobs. If the issue is the size of the total pie, globalization has proved a good thing, says Orit Gadiesh, chairman of consultants Bain & Co. If the issue is how the pie is divided, if youre in the Western world you could question that. 然而，在过去二十年间，另外一些重大参与者出现了。发达国家正在开辟一条通向中 国和印度大门的道路而中国和印度的公司又将眼光投向海外， 寻找未来增长的机会。 北 京甚至提出了“走出去”的政策，鼓励中国企业购买海外资产。亚洲各国正在形成“一个创 新的卓越环境， ”思科系统公司的首席执行官约翰钱伯斯如是说。 “目前中国和印度的工科 大学毕业生是我们美国的五倍还多。 ”这就意味着美国和欧洲的公司现在面临来自海外的高 质量、低成本的竞争。毋怪乎这么多西方工人担心失业。 “如果问题涉及的是整个蛋糕的大 小，那全球化已经被证明是件好事。 ”贝恩管理咨询公司的董事长奥里特加迪西说， “如果 问题在于蛋糕怎么分，而你又是西方人，那你就会质疑全球化。 ” 8. The biggest shift may just be starting. A landmark XXXX study by Goldman Sachs predicted that four economies Russia, Brazil, India and China will become a much larger force in the world economy than widely expected, based on projections of demographic and economic growth, with China potentially overtaking Germany this decade. By 2050, Goldman Sachs suggested, these four newcomers will likely have displaced all but the U.S. and Japan from the top six economies in the world. 最大的变化也许刚刚开始。高盛集团 XXXX 年做的一项意义深远的研究预测说，根据 对各国人口和经济增长的预计，四大经济体俄罗斯、巴西、印度和中国在世界经济 中的力量将超过普遍预期。中国的经济实力可能就在这个十年内赶超德国。高盛集团说，到 2050 年，这四大新经济体将有可能取代目前世界六个最大经济体中除了美国和日本之外的 四个经济体。 9. Its also entirely possible that the near future may see the pendulum of capital swing away from Davos Man-style globalization. One counterpoint is Manila Woman low-paid migrant workers from Asia and elsewhere who are increasingly providing key services around the world. Valerie Gooding, the chief executive of British health care company BUPA, says the British and U.S. health care system would break down without immigrant nurses from the Philippines, India, Nigeria and elsewhere. Unlike Davos Man, she says, theyre not ambivalent about being strongly patriotic. 近期资本流动也完全有可能脱离达沃斯人式的全球化的轨迹。 与达沃斯人相对的是马 尼拉女人。 这些来自亚洲和其他地方的低薪流动劳工正在全球提供越来越多的关键服务。 英 一 寸 光 阴 不 可 轻 4 国一家医疗保健公司保柏集团的首席执行官瓦莱丽戈丁说，要是没有来自菲律宾、印度、 尼日利亚和其他地方的移民护士，英美两国的医疗保健体系就会崩溃。她说，这些人跟达沃 斯人不一样，他们毫不掩饰自己的强烈爱国情绪。 10. Not all Davos Men seek global markets, either. Patrick Sayer runs a private equity firm in France called Eurazeo, and complains there are still too many barriers to cross-border business in Europe, let alone the world. S