,Chapter 22,The Demand for Money, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Quantity Theory of Money,Velocity P Y V = M Equation of Exchange M V = P Y Quantity Theory of Money 1. Irving Fishers view: V is fairly constant 2. Equation of exchange no longer identity 3. Nominal income, PY, determined by M 4. Classicals assume Y fairly constant 5. P determined by M Quantity Theory of Money Demand 1 M = PY V Md = k PY Implication: interest rates not important to Md, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,2,Change in Velocity from Year to Year: 19152002,3, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Cambridge Approach,Is velocity constant? 1.Classicals thought V constant because didnt have good data 2.After Great Depression, economists realized velocity far from constant,4, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Keyness Liquidity Preference Theory,3 Motives 1.Transactions motiverelated to Y 2.Precautionary motiverelated to Y 3.Speculative motive A. related to W and Y B. negatively related to i Liquidity Preference Md = f(i, Y) P+,5, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Keyness Liquidity Preference Theory,Implication: Velocity not constant P1 = Md f(i,Y) Multiply both sides by Y and substitute in M = Md PYY V = = Mf(i,Y) 1. i , f(i,Y) , V 2. Change in expectations of future i, change f(i,Y) and V changes,6, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Baumol-Tobin Model of Transactions Demand,Assumptions 1.Income of $1000 each month 2.2 assets: money and bonds If keep all income in cash 1.Yearly income = $12,000 2.Average money balances = $1000/2 3.Velocity = $12,000/$500 = 24 Keep only 1/2 payment in cash 1.Yearly income = $12,000 2.Average money balances = $500/2 = $250 3.Velocity = $12,000/$250 = 48 Trade-off of keeping less cash 1.Income gain = i $500/2 2.Increased transactions costs Conclusion: Higher is i and income gain from holding bonds, less likely to hold cash: Therefore i , Md ,7, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Cash Balance in Baumol-Tobin Model,8, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,Precautionary and Speculative Md,Precautionary Demand Similar tradeoff to Baumol-Tobin framework 1. Benefits of precautionary balances 2. Opportunity cost of interest foregone Conclusion: i , opportunity cost , hold less precautionary balances, Md Speculative Demand Problems with Keyness framework: Hold all bonds or all money: no diversification Tobin Model: 1. People want high Re, but low risk 2. As i , hold more bonds and less M, but still diversify and hold M Problem with Tobin model: No speculative demand because T-bills have no risk (like money) but have higher return, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,9,Friedmans Modern Quantity Theory,Implication of 3: MdY = f(YP) V = Pf(YP) Since relationship of Y and YP predictable, 4 implies V is predictable: Get Q-theory view that change in M leads to predictable changes in nominal income, PY,Theory of asset demand: Md function of wealth (YP) and relative Re of other assets Md = f(YP, rb rm, re rm, e rm) P+ Differences from Keynesian Theories 1.Other assets besides money and bonds: equities and real goods 2.Real goods as alternative asset to money implies M has direct effects on spending 3.rm not constant: rb , rm , rb rm unchanged, so Md unchanged: i.e.,interest rates have little effect on Md 4.Md is a stable function, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,10,Empirical Evidence on Money Demand,Interest Sensitivity of Money Demand Is sensitive, but no liquidity trap Stability of Money Demand 1.M1 demand stable till 1973, unstable after 2.Most likely source of instability is financial innovation 3.Cast doubts on money targets,11, 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc.,