第三章 经济核算与环境Economic Accounting and Environment,第一节 经济核算 第二节 经济增长与人类福利 第三节 经济增长与环境,2020/8/3,2,2,第一节 经济核算 Economic Accounting,一、经济部门分类 Economic Sector Classification 很多国家都有自己的经济部门分类 Most countries have a classification system for their economic sectors US (previously SIC Standard Industrial Classification) Now NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) UN (SNA System of National Accounts),2020/8/3,3,3,经济部门分类 Economic Sector Classification,分类有利于This classification facilitates 经济产出和投入的系统核算（国民收入和产品账户）Systematic accounting of the output of the economy and use of the output (National Income and Product Accounts NIPA) 监测和报告绩效，如GDP Monitoring and reporting of performance measures such as Gross Domestic Product 比较和基准 Comparison and benchmarking 规划和预测投入产出分析 Planning and forecasting Input-Output Analysis,2020/8/3,4,4,行业分类 Major industries in China,A 农林牧渔业 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting B 采矿业Mining C 制造业 Manufacturing D 电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业Utilities and supply industry on electricity, heat, gas and water E 建筑业 Construction F 批发和零售业Wholesale Trade and Retail Trade G 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 Transportation, storage and postal services I 信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业transfer information, software and IT services,2020/8/3,5,J 金融业 Financial Industry K 房地产业 Real Estate L 租赁和商务服务业 Leasing and Business Services M 科学研究和技术服务业 scientific and technical services N 水利、环境和公共设施管理业 Water, environment and public facilities management industry O 居民服务、修理和其他服务业 resident services, repairs and other services P 教育 Education Q 卫生和社会工作 Health and social work R 文化、体育和娱乐业 Culture, Sports and Entertainment S 公共管理、社会保障和社会组织public administration, social security and social organizations T 国际组织International Organizations,5,2020/8/3,6,6,A 农林牧渔业 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting,01农业 011 谷物种植 0111 稻谷种植 0112 小麦种植 0113 玉米种植 0119 其他谷物种植 012 豆类、油料和薯类种植 013 棉、麻、糖、烟草种植 014 蔬菜、食用菌及园艺作物种植 015 水果种植 016 坚果、含油果、香料和饮料作物种植 0170170 中药材种植 0190190 其他农业,2020/8/3,7,02林业,021 林木育种和育苗 0211 林木育种 0212 林木育苗 022 0220 造林和更新 023 0230 森林经营和管护 024 木材和竹材采运 0241 木材采运 0242 竹材采运 025 林产品采集 0251 木竹材林产品采集 0252 非木竹材林产品采集,2020/8/3,8,8,二、投入产出分析 Input-Output Analysis,经济是由复杂而相互依存的部分（农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等）组成的The economy consists of complex and interdependent sectors (Ag-Mfg-Service-Govt-Consumers-Other countries) 1、投入产出分析的概念 投入产出分析是一种运用会计和简单的模型来表达农业、制造业、服务业、政府、消费者、其它国家等相互依存的经济关系Input-output analysis is an accounting and simple modeling technique to represent these economic interdependencies 区域投入产出分析是在区域水平上的投入产出分析Regional input-output analysis is IO analysis done at a regional level,2020/8/3,9,9,以GDP作为衡量经济效果和福利的问题Problems with GDP as a measure of economic performance and well being,包括了防御性支出 Includes defensive expenditures E.g. Flu epidemic or Hurricanes or pollution control expenditures or war on terror 没扣除自然、社会或人力资本 Does not deduct depreciation of Natural, Social, or Human capital only manmade capital is depreciated in calculating NDP Ores, fossil fuel stock reduction Marine resource loss, deforestation, air and water quality changes Loss of institutions, skills 没包括所有非市场商品和服务 Excludes all non-market goods and services Environmental/Ecosystem services Home services Leisure,第二节 经济增长与人类福利Economic Growth and Human Wellbeing,一、贫富 二、贫富差异的原因 三、推动经济增长的因素 四、经济增长的愿景 五、衡量福利的非经济指标 六、需要与欲望,一、贫富The rich and the poor,经济增长的关键点 Key ideas on economic growth 一个时期内的生产力 Production within a period how to model 跨时期的增长 Growth across periods By capital accumulation By technology raising productivity,二、贫富差异的原因 Why are some countries rich and some poor?,1、自然资源和条件差异 Natural resources in textbook: t = Kt-10.6,2020/8/3,24,Recap: Drivers of GDP growth,加大投入 More input use (L, K, R) 增加资本积累 More capital accumulated (K) 提高效率 More efficiency (t) Endogenous efficiency growth is based on Kt-1 So how to encourage these?,2020/8/3,25,激励与行为 Incentives and behavior,What makes people save more? 文化习俗 Cultural norms 储蓄收益 Likelihood of gain from saving 利率 Interest rates (return on capital ownership) 税率 Tax rates 回报的波动性 Volatility of returns 产权安全性 Security of property rights,2020/8/3,26,一、环境影响恒等式 IPAT model P180,1、环境影响恒等式 I = P A T I= Environmental Impact (resource extraction and Waste insertion) P= 人口数量Population A= 富裕程度 Affluence (per capita consumption or GDP/P) T= 技术水平 Technology ( Env impact/unit consumption ),第三节 经济增长与环境Economic Growth and the Environment,2020/8/3,27,Example for IPAT model,Global emissions of CO2 2000年，P=6 billion, A= $7000, T=0.00055tons/$ I=670000.00055 I=23.1 billion tons I=PAT is an identity! 它指出了经济活动是对环境影响最直接的决定因素,2020/8/3,28,2、IPAT 情景分析Scenario analysis using IPAT,人口增长 Population growth ( function of fertility) 经济增长 Economic growth (Affluence growth) 技术进步 Technology change,2020/8/3,29,3、技术需求 What technology changes are needed to keep constant CO2 emissions?,T* 2050 = 23100/(P2050* A2050) Low/Low = 0.4638 High/high = 0.0772 Disaggregated IPAT Ii = PATj j can be specific pollutants, i can be specific industries,2020/8/3,30,二、经济增长与环境关系的模拟Modeling Growth and the Environment,Production function Y= K L R Saving