The CLUE model Hands-on exercises Course material Peter Verburg January 2010 2 CLUE model - background Introduction The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modelling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modelling of competition between land use types. The model was developed for the national and continental level and applications for Central America, Ecuador, China and Java, Indonesia are available. For study areas with such a large extent the spatial resolution for analysis was coarse and, as a result, each land use is represented by assigning the relative cover of each land use type to the pixels. Land use data for study areas with a relatively small spatial extent is often based on land use maps or remote sensing images that denote land use types respectively by homogeneous polygons or classified pixels. This results in only one dominant land use type occupying one unit of analysis. Because of the differences in data representation and other features that are typical for regional applications, the CLUE model cannot directly be applied at the regional scale. Therefore the modelling approach has been modified and is now called CLUE-S (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent). CLUE-S is specifically developed for the spatially explicit simulation of land use change based on an empirical analysis of location suitability combined with the dynamic simulation of competition and interactions between the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use systems. More information on the development of the CLUE-S model can be found in Verburg et al. (2002) and Verburg and Veldkamp (2003). The more recent versions of the CLUE model: Dyna-CLUE (Verburg and Overmars, 2009) and CLUE-Scanner include new methodological advances. Model structure The model is sub-divided into two distinct modules, namely a non-spatial demand module and a spatially explicit allocation procedure (Figure 1). The non-spatial module calculates the area change for all land use types at the aggregate level. Within the second part of the model these demands are translated into land use changes at different locations within the study region using a raster-based system. The user- interface of the CLUE-S model only supports the spatial allocation of land use change. For the land use demand module different model specifications are possible ranging from simple trend extrapolations to complex economic models. The choice for a specific model is very much dependent on the nature of the most important land use conversions taking place within the study area and the scenarios that need to be considered. The results from the demand module need to specify, on a yearly basis, the area covered by the different land use types, which is a direct input for the allocation module. 3 Figure 1. Overview of the modelling procedure The allocation is based upon a combination of empirical, spatial analysis and dynamic modelling. Figure 2 gives an overview of the information needed to run the CLUE-S model. This information is subdivided into four categories that together create a set of conditions and possibilities for which the model calculates the best solution in an iterative procedure. The next sections discuss each of the boxes: spatial policies and restrictions, land use type specific conversion settings, land use requirements (demand) and location characteristics. Spatial policies and restrictions Spatial policies and land tenure can influence the pattern of land use change. Spatial policies and restrictions mostly indicate areas where land use changes are restricted through policies or tenure status. For the simulation maps that indicate the areas for which the spatial policy is implemented must be supplied. Some spatial policies restrict all land use change in a certain area, e.g., a log-ban within a forest reserve. Other land use policies restrict a set of specific land use conversions, e.g., residential construction in designated agricultural areas or permanent agriculture in the buffer zone of a nature reserve. The conversions that are restricted by a certain spatial policy can be indicated in a land use conversion matrix: for all possible land use conversions it is indicated if the spatial policy applies. 4 Figure 2. Overview of the information flow in the CLUE-S model Land use type specific conversion settings Land use type specific conversion settings determine the temporal dynamics of the simulations. Two sets of parameters are needed to characterize the individual land use types: conversion elasticities and land use transition sequences. The first parameter set, the conversion elasticities, is related to the reversibility of land use change. Land use types with high capital investment will not easily be converted in other uses as long as there is sufficient demand. Exa