“国际金融与投资”讲座 主题 主题之一：第二届“苏黎世财富论坛”学术观点介绍 主题之二：联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）介绍 主题之三：谢康教授在瑞士主题演讲观点介绍 (1) 在中国资本市场投资 (2) 中国国际投资发展现状与趋势 2 主题之一：第二届“苏黎世财富论坛”学术观点介绍 3 4 主题之一：第二届“苏黎世财富论坛”学术观点介绍 Keynote Speakers Topic 1. Trust and Banking Secrecy Philip Marcovici, Partner, Baker following the former Soviet Union In the nowadays: towards the multiple property ownership system; there are SOE, private enterprises and foreign joint ventures 26 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 3.The Greenfield investment is transferring to FII The most important result of China economic reform was absorbing the foreign capital $600 bil. has entered into China FDI as the main entry form FDI created the conditions for China became the manufactured base in the world Also FDI is supported by FII 27 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 $ 1999200120032005 Year FDI in China (unit: in US $ billion) 28 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 3.The Greenfield investment is transferring to FII FDI in 1-7, in 2006 July FDI real investment $ 4.279 -5.4 %(Comparing with July, 2005) -21.33 %(Comparing with June, 2006) Jan.-July FDI real investment $ 32.707 -1.16%(Comparing with July, 2005) 29 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 3.The Greenfield investment is transferring to FII The financial sector including banking, insurance and securities has become a new growth area for foreign investment flowing into the country. -MAXiuhong, Vice-Minister of Commerce, China Daily, July 15,2006 30 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 4.RMB appreciated expectation is promoting Chinas capital market development rapidly. July 21,2005: China People Banks declared the RMB would be appreciated To Aug. 2006, RMB has been appreciated for 3.7 % 31 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 4.RMB appreciated expectation is promoting Chinas capital market development rapidly. Banking Industry Watchdogs: The Peoples Bank of China China Banking Regulatory Commission Ministry of Finance The Bureau of Foreign Currency 32 . Chinas capital market is taking historical reform 5.Chinas capital market is engaging in the international process. In the domestic market: B share market QFII Strategy investors Hong Kang Stock Exchange (Hang Seng and H market) In the foreign market: New York market (NYSE, NASDAQ) Singapore market (SGX) London market (LSE) 33 . The characteristics of China capital market development 1.The systemic problems of Chinas capital market have been solved. Converting non-tradable state-hold shares into regularly traded equity. The non-tradable stock owners should pay 20-30 % of own shares to tradable ones. In 2005-2006 the main work of Shanghai Stock Exchange is solving the share-merger system 34 . The characteristics of China capital market development 1.The systemic problems of Chinas capital market have been solved. Share-merger Reform in Shanghai Stock Exchange Numbers of total listed Company 818 Numbers of Share-merger listed company 696 (85 %) Values of Share-merger listed company (92%) Sources: Shanghai Securities News, Aug.21, 2006 35 . The characteristics of China capital market development 2.The scale of Chinas capital market is rather not big, however it will be potential. In 1991 SSE established, only there were 8 companies listed In 2006, there are 800 listed companies in SSE 36 . The characteristics of China capital market development Shanghai Securities Market Listed Companies Total value (BiL.)Circled value (BiL.)P/E A Share 8183516.67954.1719.8 B Share 5434.40 31.1716.61 Shenzhen Securities Market Listed Companies Total value (BiL.)Circled value (BiL.)P/E A Share 5351144.75524.1123.91 B Share 5554.1251.70 13.80 Sources: Shanghai Securities News, Aug.17, 2006 37 . The characteristics of China capital market development 3.Chinas capital market is being a new field in absorbing foreign Capital M & A : Numbers of listed companies by sector Sector Total number Finance & Insurance 10 Food & Beverage 59 Wholesale & Retail 93 Construction 28 Real Estate 49 Metal/Non-metal 129 Mining 24 Source: Chris Chow, April 3-9, 2006, China Daily 38 . The characteristics of China capital market development 4.The objects and subjects of Chinas capital investment are multiple The object: A. Domestic investors Securities company Mutual fund Insurance company Listed company Individual investor B. Foreign investors: Investment banks Mutual fund TNC Individual investor The subjects: Stocks (A, B shares) Bonds (Treasury bonds, corporate bonds) Futures (commodity and financial futures) Options (warrants) 39 . The characteristics of China capital market development 5.Capital fluctuation is synchronous. Information synchronous. Business cycle synchronous. Capital flow synchronous. Time gap between home market and international market is smalle