Global Automotive Supplier Study 2009Global Automotive Supplier Study 2009 How suppliers can master the auto crisis Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx May 2009 Management summary The global automotive industry is facing the biggest crisis ever Supplier revenues in 2009 will be down by 30% compared to 2008 Average supplier profitability is at an all-time low, after an excellent performance in 2007 and the first nine months of 2008 As a result, a significant number of suppliers already had to file for insolvency over the past weeks (example Germany: 35 insolvencies between mid November 2008 and end of March 2009); 500 suppliers in the triad markets are in dangerof March 2009); 500 suppliers in the triad markets are in danger Supplier CEOs have to pull all possible restructuring levers in order to survive 2009. Top focus has to be shifted towards ensuring sufficient liquidity The crisis is a catalyst for consolidation. New strategic options for stable and well-performing suppliers are arising 2Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx ContentsPage A. The auto crisis A global shockwave4 BD it A tti li fit bilit t ll ti l19B. Deep impact Automotive supplier profitability at an all-time low19 C. Survival kit How to navigate through the crisis 29 D. Contacts41 2009 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH 3Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx The auto crisis A global shockwave A The auto crisis A global shockwave A. 4Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx Three parallel events put the global automotive industry under dramatic pressure CAR MARKET TRUCK MARKET DOWNSHIFTING 132 CAR MARKET DOWNTURN In mature markets, sales volume dropped by 25-35% Also BRIC countries see TRUCK MARKET COLLAPSE Dramatic and quick collapse of truck sales worldwide (up to 60% 70%) after DOWNSHIFTING Small/basic cars gained significant market share Sales of (high margin) SUVs Also BRIC countries see declining volumes (up to -60%-70%) after 10 years of positive cycle All related segments similarly affected (e.g. trailers) Sales of (high margin) SUVs and upper class cars collapsed Main drivers: Global recession Financial crisis Main drivers: Reduction of global trade and transportation volume Financing problems of carriers Main drivers: CO2 regulations Changed consumer preferences (environmental g pp( aspects) 5Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY 1CAR MARKET DOWNTURN Global car sales declined already in 2008 mainly due to weak volumes in NAFTA and Western Europe Global new car1)sales m units -9% NAFTA Russia/Ukraine Western Europe 18.9 16 0 -16% 16.9 15.4 -9% -6% 3.2 3.7 +16% +9% NAFTA Japan/Korea ChinaEastern Europe 2007 16.0 2008 20072008 2.2 2007 2.1 2008 20072008 8.1 2007 8.8 2008 6.46.3 -2% WORLD +10% 20072008 +6% South America Rest of World Asia Other 70.3 68.0 -3% 4.0 2007 4.4 2008 3.6 2007 3.8 2008 7.1 7.6 +7% 6Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptxSource: J.D. Power Q4/2008; Roland Berger/Rothschild analysis 1) Passenger cars and LCVs 20072008 20072008 1CAR MARKET DOWNTURN While NAFTA was affected first, the downturn in Europe and Japan only started in Q4/2008. Q1/2009 is 20-36% below last year Monthly new car1)registrations m units NAFTAEUROPE2)JAPAN 0 65 0.70 0.75 2.0 2.22.0 2007 NAFTAEUROPE2)JAPAN 0 50 0.55 0.60 0.65 1.6 1.8 1.5 2007 2007 2007 2009 -20% ytd3) 0 35 0.40 0.45 0.50 1 0 1.2 1.4 1.0 -16% -8% 2009 -5% 2009 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 2008 2008 2009 -36% ytd3) 2008 -23% ytd3) 7Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx JF M A M JJ A S O N DJA S O N DJMAMFJAMDNFOSJAJJM Source: ACEA; Wards Automotive Group; JAMA; Roland Berger/Rothschild analysis 1) Passenger cars and LCVs2) EU + EFTA3) 2009 vs. 2008 1CAR MARKET DOWNTURN BRIC countries are differently affected by the crisis: strong down- turn in Russia, stagnation in Brazil while Asian markets are growing New passenger car registrations Q1/2009 vs. Q1/2008 000 units BRAZILINDIACHINARUSSIA1)BRAZILINDIACHINARUSSIA1) +7.8% 1,851 1,996 -40.2% -0.6% 537533 648 388 +5.4% 337 355 337 355 8Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptx 2008200920082009 Source: Anfavea; AEB; CAAM; SIAM; Press information 1) Light vehicles 2008200920082009 1CAR MARKET DOWNTURN Only VW, Audi and Korean brands have performed reasonably well in the first quarter of 2009 Global1)light vehicle sales by brand Q1/2009 vs. Q1/008 % EUROPEAN PREMIUMEUROPEAN VOLUMEASIANSDETROIT 3 260717178168238110418499115183761992524127812517858363232234 Sales 2009 YTD 000 units 2) 6% PREMIUMEUROPEAN VOLUMEASIANSDETROIT 3 2) 6% -10% -23% -10% -21% -8% -10% -7% -23% -17% 24% -25% -28% -31% -23% -31% -29% -33% -41% -23% -31% -38% -24% 9Automotive supplier study 2009_Update May (Kurzversion).pptxSource: J.D. Power; ACEA; JAMA; Roland Berger/Rothschild analysis 1) Figures include EU, EFTA