2007/08 US Soybean Crop Quality Conference &Market Seminar2007/08美国大豆作物品质报告会及市场研讨会大豆及大豆产品市场概况美国毕信咨询公司马修 毕信Mathew BeesonBeeson & Associates, Inc.,Soybean Complex Overview,发言提纲 Agenda,世界油籽 World Oilseeds大豆系列产品 Soybean Complex市场面临的问题 Issues facing the market与大豆种植的竞争 Competition for area to plant soybeans生物柴油 Bio-diesel市场预测 Forecasts,The market has rallied strongly as supplies tighten,CBOT大豆期货价格CBOT Soybean Futures Price,世界油籽展望 World Oilseed Outlook,世界油籽概况 World Oilseed Overview大豆系列产品 Soybean Complex世界大豆展望 World Soybean Outlook世界大豆产品展望 World Product Outlook美国的市场状况 U.S. Situation预测 Forecasts,世界各种油籽的生产World Oilseed Production by Type,油籽产量在过去的四年里增幅较小 Oilseed production has grown little in the past 4 years,世界各产地油籽生产World Oilseed Production by Origin,前五大生产国占总产量的70 Top 5 producers account for 70% of total output69的产量都在北半球 69% of output is in the Northern Hemisphere,世界各油籽出口国的出口量World Oilseed Exports by Origin,前三大生产国占总出口量的79 Top 3 producers account for 79% of total exports加工产品出口量未计算在数据内 Product exports are excluded from this data,世界各类油籽的出口量World Oilseed Exports by Type,世界油籽贸易中的86为大豆贸易 World oilseed trade is 86% soybeans,世界油籽库存与使用量World Oilseed Stocks vs Use,在过去两个作物季，世界油籽库存量下降 World Oilseed Stocks have declined the past 2 seasons,世界蛋白粕生产World Protein Meal Production,豆粕产量使其它蛋白粕相形见绌 Soybean meal dwarfs the other protein types,世界各国粕类生产World Meal Production by Source,前五大生产国占总产量的73 Top 5 producers account for 73% of total output中国和欧盟27国加工进口油籽来满足其总需求 China and EU-27 process imported oilseeds to meet their totals,世界各国粕类产品出口World Meal Exports by Source,南美占所有粕类出口总量的63 South American accounts for 63% of all meal exports包括椰仁、棕榈仁、棉籽、葵花籽、大豆、菜籽、花生和鱼粉 Includes Copra, Palm Kernel, Cottonseed, Sunseed, Soybean, Rapeseed, Peanuts, and Fish,世界各粕类产品出口量World Meal Exports by Type,世界油籽粕贸易中78为大豆粕 World oilseed meal trade is 78% soybeans,世界各类植物油生产World Veg Oil Production by Type,每年，棕榈油和大豆油为领先地位而相互竞争 Palm and Soybean Oil Production vie for leadership each year,世界各国植物油生产World Veg Oil Production by Origin,前五大生产国占总产量的62 Top 5 producers account for 62% of total output棕榈油供应国雄踞榜首 Palm oil suppliers top the list,世界各国植物油出口量World Veg Oil Exports by Origin,棕榈油占全球出口量的58 Palm oil accounts for 58% of the world total美国豆油在世界植物油总出口量中微乎其微 U.S. soybean oil is not significant to the world total,世界各类植物油的出口量World Veg Oil Exports by Type,世界植物油贸易中豆油仅占21 World vegetable oil trade is only 21% soybean oil,世界植物油库存与使用量World Veg Oil Stocks vs Use,世界植物油库存量正下降到极低的水平 World Vegetable Oil Stocks are declining to very low levels,美国 U.S.,阿根廷Argentina,巴西 Brazil,转基因大豆应用率Soybean GMO Utilization,各来源国转基因大豆的总播种面积的比例 The percentage of total area planted to GMO soybeans by country of origin,世界油籽市场总结World Oilseed Summary,油籽库存下降 Oilseed stocks are declining油籽粕的供应量与强劲的需求量旗鼓相当 Supply of oilseed meals is matched by strong demand相对于植物油的使用量，其库存量非常低Vegetable oil stocks are very low relative to use2007/08年度播种面积需要增加以避免供应短缺 2007/08 needs to see an expansion of area planted to avoid a supply shortage,世界大豆市场总结World Soybean Summary,美国播种面积减少但收成很好 U.S. is harvesting a very good crop on reduced area巴西正扩大种植面积，但目前尚处于作物季节的早期 Brazilian acreage is expanding, but it is early in its season巴西货币升值阻碍着扩大面积的热情 Brazilian currency strength is tempering enthusiasm for expansion需要南美及美国扩大种植面积并保持正常的单产水平来防止出现2008年的极为紧张的供应状况 With expanded area in S. America and the U.S. and normal yields are needed to prevent a very tight supply in 2008.,大豆生产 Soybean Production,世界大豆生产在过去的四年间较为稳定 World soybean production has leveled off the past 4 years,美国大豆系列产品展望U. S. Soybean Complex Outlook,美国大豆和豆油库存创历史记录 U.S. has record stocks of soybeans and soybean oil 相当多的大豆面积转向种植玉米 The shift of area to corn from soybeans has been significant2008年这些面积应该回到大豆种植上来 Area needs to return to beans in 2008小麦价格为历史最高水平 Wheat prices are the highest in history玉米价格一直由玉米酒精的需求所支撑 Corn prices have been supported by strong ethanol demand2008/09年度大豆的供应将可能非常紧张 Soybean supplies will likely be very tight through 2008/09,玉米 Corn,大豆 Soybean,小麦 Wheat,美国大豆种植面积的变化U.S. Soybean Area Shift,2007年春季发生了历史上转种玉米面积最多的情况 The largest shift to corn in history occurred in the spring of 2007,美国大豆的供应与需求U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand,今年美国大豆使用量将超过产量940万吨 U.S. soybean use will exceed production 9.4 MMT this year,豆粕的供应和需求Soybean Meal Supply and Demand,由于牲畜养殖利润较好，美国豆粕需求量从2005年以来稳步增长 U.S. meal demand has grown steadily since 2005 as livestock profits have been good,美国牲畜存栏指数U.S. Animal Inventory Index (HPAU),牲畜生产的较好收益带来牲畜存栏量的增加 Good returns to livestock production have resulted in expansion of livestock numbers,