HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017MethodologyAdobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics CloudMost comprehensive report of its kind in industryBased on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data via: Adobe Analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers* Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs Analysis based on 6 million average daily orders during November and December Companion research based on survey of 1,100+ U.S. consumers and 440+ U.S. retailers that sell products online 12M Social Mentions From August 1 October 11, 2017 *Source Internet Retailer 2017. HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017Key findings1. The 2017 U.S. online holiday season is poised to be the first to break $100 billion. Online revenues during the holiday season are 13.8% higher in the U.S. than last year (compared to 3.8% for all U.S. holiday retail)2. Big and small retailers are the winners, beating out the middle. Big retailers have higher order values and desktop conversion rates while small retailers have the highest mobile conversion rates3. Consumers are buying more and buying cheaper: for toys and consumer electronics (amongst others), unit growth is outpacing revenue growth 4. Mobile is key to winning. Fast mobile growth is closely correlated with fast revenue growth, but desktop orders remain the biggest 5. Novelty and nostalgia drive top product buzz. The most buzzed about products on social include throwbacks to the 80s and 90s (like Teddy Ruxpin and the Super Nintendo Classic) and new offerings like the Nintendo Switch HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017Online holiday shopping season breaks $100 billionMethodologyPrediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce *Source: Forbes estimate of NFL team valuations*Source: The National Retail Federation estimates overall holiday retail will increase between 3.6% and 4.0% Online holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. is projected to be $107.4B in 2017, 13.8% more than online holiday spending in 2016Just how much money is $100B? Those two months of revenue are enough to buy every National Football League team*, with $20B left to spareDouble digit growth, but for how long? Since 2015, online holiday season revenue growth has been slowing Online revenue growth during holiday continues to outpace overall retail growth (13.8% online vs 3.8% overall*) Online will continue to gain share, but it wont fully offset the ”retail apocalypse”SURVEY SAYSConsumers say theyll spend 55% of their holiday budget online, up from 53% last yearHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017The big get biggerGlossary*The Thanksgiving shopping weekend is Thanksgiving Day through Cyber MondayThanksgiving weekend online revenue growth consistently outpaces holiday daily averages, but year-over-year growth plateaus The Thanksgiving weekend* generates $19.7 billion or $1 in $6 (18%) of online holiday shopping Cyber Monday is set to remain the overall leader with both the highest predicted revenue ($6.6B) and fastest growth (16.5% year-over-year)SURVEY SAYSMore than half of all retailers (51%) report offering Black Friday promotions, while a third (33%) plan to offer online door-crashers or major couponsHOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017It pays to be big or smallGlossarySmall retailers: under $10M annual salesMedium retailers: Between $10M and $100M annual salesLarge retailers: Over $100M annual salesBig retail, bigger baskets Big retailers ($100M annual revenue) get bigger orders on every device This contributes to large retailers growing revenue twice as fast in first half of 2017 vs. other retailersSmall retail, mobile dominance Small retailers ($10M annual revenue) have the best mobile conversion rate (1.9%)Average retailers cant find foothold The “in-betweeners” are in a tough spot. Their average conversion rates (2.4%) fall behind both large (3.2%) and small companies (2.7%)HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017Making the move towards cheaper productsMethodology Based on Adobe analysis of hundreds of thousands products and millions of transactions as measured by the Adobe Analytics Cloud Online toy sales poised to grow During the holiday season, online shoppers buy more items at lower prices 4 out of 5 measured product categories show higher unit growth than revenue growth, suggesting that consumers are orienting towards lower priced products Toys and apparel are seeing significant unit growth (39% and 20%, respectively) while jewelry trails the pack with a holiday season decline of 3%HOLIDAY PREDICTIONS 2017Top products: consumer electronics Ear buds, VR, and home assistants dominate top electronics Air Pods, Playstation VR, Oculus, and Google Home lead overall social buzzSource 12 million Adobe Social Mentions August 1 October 11SURVEY SAYSFor shoppers that use social media for help in holiday shopping, 56% use social media