DissertationSearch and Rescue in the ArcticIs the U.S. Prepared?Timothy William James SmithThis document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Abbie Tingstad (Chair), Brien Alkire, and Scott Stephenson. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOLiii Table of Contents Acknowledgments. vAbstract . viiChapter One: Introduction . 1Motivation and Background . 1Research Questions . 4Initial Hypotheses . 5Methodology. 5Chapter Two: Foundational Knowledge for Arctic Search and Rescue . 9The Search and Rescue Mission Set . 9Search and Rescue Policy . 11The COSPAS-SARSAT System . 15Unique Challenges of the Arctic . 17SAR in the Arctic . 21Chapter Three: What is the current demand for Arctic SAR, and what factors affect its future trajectory? . 23Current Demand from Historical Arctic SAR Cases . 23Maritime Arctic Activity . 24Arctic Aeronautical Activity . 32Military Activity and Catastrophic Incident SAR . 34Longer-Term Arctic Future Uncertain . 36Arctic Risk Factors . 38Role of Technology and Policy in Mitigating Risk . 38Summary . 46Chapter Four: What is the current U.S. capability for supplying SAR in the Arctic, and how is it changing? . 47Air Force SAR Capabilities . 47USCG SAR Capabilities . 52Additional Partners for Arctic SAR . 59Role of Satellite Technology in Improving SAR Supply . 67Summary . 71Chapter Five: Arctic SAR Scenario Analysis . 72Scenario Selection and Development . 72Military SAR Scenario Analysis .