1东方钢钩公司财务危机预警分析摘要摘要：伴随市场环境的日益复杂多变,企业的财务危机预警系统也愈来愈受到重视. 如果企业不能卓有成效地规避风险，危机便会在企业内部机体滋生蔓延。而首当其冲的是企业资金运动的中枢财务系统，财务状况的逐步恶化将引发财务危机，当危机扩散到企业无法承受的限度时，全面危机则一触即发。在亚洲金融风暴中，日本、韩国、马来西亚等国的大企业频频覆没，不是没有管理，而是没有对财务风险保持高度的警惕。企业设置良好的财务危机预警系统,利于发现潜在的问题,避免日后财务危机对企业造成的巨大损失.文章从财务危机预警理论的国内外发展史出发，表述了预警系统的功能和研究方法,在此理论基础上,主要运用 Z-score 模型对公司的财务状况作了分析 ,并针对此提出了危机对策.【关键字】 财务危机；财务危机预警；Z 计分模型2AbstractEnterprises are threated by crisis in the fierce market competition now. And the company is paying more attention to the Financial crisis prediction. If a company make a good use of Financial crisis system ,it could escape from suffering loss. If enterprises can not effectively avoid risks, the crisis will spread within the enterprise fabric. And the central of enterprise funds - financial system which is first affected will trigger a financial crisis. when the crisis spread to beyond the enterprise bearable limits, a comprehensive crisis is imminent. During the Asian financial crisis, In Japan, Korea, Malaysia and other countries, many large enterprises frequently were defeated. The reason is that in the company there is not management, but no financial risk to maintain high vigilance. Enterprises with good financial crisis early warning system will identify potential problems and prevent future financial crises causing huge losses for businesses.In this essay, I expounded on the history of the development of the theory of financial crisis early warning and early warning systems function and research methods. In this theoretical foundation. Z-score main models was used to an analysis of the companys financial situation and put forward against this crisis response .Keywords: Financial crisis Financial crisis prediction Model Z-score Model目录摘要 .1【关键字】 .1Abstract .2目录 .31 绪论 .51.1 财务危机的存在及预警的意义 .51.2 国内外的研究现状 .731.2.1 国外学者对财务危机预警理论的研究 .71.2.2 国内学者对财务危机预警理论的研究 .92 财务危机及其预警的涵义界定 .112.1 财务危机的涵义 .112.1.1 国外学者对财务危机的定义 .112.1.2 国内学者对财务危机的定义 .132.2 财务危机预警的涵义 .142.2.1 财务危机预警的定义 .142.2.2 财务危机预警的原则 .153 财方法务危机预警的方法研究 .163.1 财务报表分析法 .163.2 单变量模型 .173.3 多变量模型 .17Z 分数模型具体判断标准 .193.4 基于案例的预警方法 .204 东方钢构公司财