2012 届本科毕业设计（论文）文 献 翻 译题目 某公司车险理赔数据分析与研究 学 院 商学院 专 业 信息系统与信息管理 班 级 信管 081 学 号 084770538 姓 名 周小诗 指导教师 谢友才 开题日期 2011年 11月 6号 文献一： Effects of Pay-As-You-Drive vehicle insuranceon young drivers speed choice1. IntroductionWorldwide, across all age groups road traffic accidents currently account for 1.27 millions deaths a year (World Health Organization, 2004). Furthermore, traffic accidents constitute the second leading cause of death among people in the age of 20 to 24 years, right after HIV/AIDS (Toroyan and Peden, 2007). Young drivers are strongly overrepresented in road accident statistics. In the Netherlands, young adults (aged 1824) make up 8% of the driving population, but are involved in 22% of all severe traffic accidents. This means that per kilometer travelled, young adults in the Netherlands are 5.5 times as likely to be involved in a severe traffic accident as older adults (Schoon and Schreuders, 2003). The differences in accident involvement are often attributed to specific characteristics of young adults. For example young drivers, compared to older drivers, have been found to have a more positive attitude towards taking risks, display stronger motives for risky driving (Hatfield and Fernandes, 2009), and tend to drive at higher speeds (Boyce and Geller, 2002).Vehicle speed is commonly seen as the most important determinant of crash risk (Salusjrvi, 1981), and crash severity ( Joksch, 1993 and OECD/ECMT, 2006 ). Driving at higher speeds leaves less time to respond to unexpected events and increases stopping time, thus decreasing the possibility to avoid accidents (Aarts and van Schagen, 2006). So, reducing the driving speed of young adults, and in particular the amount of time spent above the speed limit, holds the potential of dramatically reducing accidents, and saving lives. The current study aimed to test whether a new type of car insurance (Pay-As-You-Drive vehicle insurance) is effective in reducing speed violations of young adults. Before explaining the study setup, we will discuss the (dis-)advantages of Pay-As-You-Drive vehicle insurance as compared to current road safety interventions.2. Method2.1. ParticipantsIn January 2007, we sent a letter with the request to fill out an online questionnaire on PAYD (duration 20 min) to approximately 6000 policyholders from five Dutch insurance companies (all policyholders were younger than 30 years). By filling out the questionnaire, participants were eligible to win a car navigation system. By July 2007, 706 policyholders had completed the online questionnaire. In the last part of the questionnaire, participants indicated whether they were interested in participating in a field experiment on PAYD. A substantial proportion of the people who filled out the questionnaire (n = 337) volunteered. However, because not all volunteers could be accommodated in the field experiment, a random selection of 228 people were eventually invited to participate.In the time between the participant selection and the installation and testing of the GPS device, some participants withdrew. Additionally, some participants were excluded from the analyses due to missing data (e.g. their GPS device did not work properly or was removed before the end of the experiment). By the end of the experiment (July 2008), we could establish the prevalence of speeding behavior throughout all phases of the experiment for 141 participants. The participants who dropped out (n = 87) did not differ in age, car size, income, gender, and intention to speed from the final set of participants (n = 141), but did report a somewhat lower yearly mileage. Self-reported mean yearly mileage of the final set of participants was 13,985 km, which is comparable to the 2007 Dutch average of 13,877 km (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2009a). In July 2007, the mean age of participants was 24.4 years (SD = 2.2), and on average participants had possessed a drivers license for 4.5 years (SD = 2.4). Men (60%) were slightly overrepresented in the sample. The majority of participants worked fulltime (69.3%), and 30.7% were otherwise engaged (studying, part-time employment). Net monthly income levels were somewhat higher than the average income of Dutch young adults, with 25.7% of the sample earning less than 1000 Euros net per month, 46.2% earning between 1000 Euros to 1500 Euros net per month, 24.3% earning between 1500 and 2000 Euros net per month, and 3.7% earning more than 2000 Euros net per month (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2009b).2.2. Design and procedureThe field experiment ran from November 2007 until June 2008. Prior to the start of the field experiment, participants cars were equipped with GPS devices. These GPS devices allowed for the monitoring of where participants were driving, what spe