基于大数据的智慧公共决策特征研究 胡税根 单立栋 徐靖芮 浙江大学公共管理学院 摘 要： 当今世界,环境日趋多变,经济社会问题日益复杂,各国公共管理面临极大的风险和挑战,仅凭传统的决策模式已无法有效应对日趋复杂的社会问题和时代挑战,大数据、云计算、物联网等新一代信息技术革命为智慧公共决策范式的出现提供了条件。智慧公共决策以大数据为基础,利用新一代数据分析技术与方法,在复杂的环境和海量的数据中,解释数据之间及数据与环境之间的广泛联系,准确了解过去、把握现在、预测未来,实时连续地为决策的制定提供支持。从本质上讲,智慧公共决策是以大数据驱动为核心,以新一代信息技术为支撑,以公共利益最大化为目标,具有全面感知、客观透明、实时连续、自主预置和多元共治等特征的一种全新的公共决策模式。关键词： 智慧; 公共决策; 大数据; 云计算; 信息技术; 数据驱动决策; 公共利益; 协同治理; 作者简介：胡税根(http:/orcid.org/0000-0001-9362-7862),男,浙江大学公共管理学院教授,博士生导师,主要从事公共服务管理、政府创新与民营经济发展、绩效管理与组织发展、非传统安全与危机管理研究;作者简介：单立栋(http:/orcid.org/0000-0003-4538-4776),男,浙江大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,主要从事公共服务与政府绩效管理研究;作者简介：徐靖芮(通信作者,http:/orcid.org/0000-0002-2231-7207),女,浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生,主要从事公共服务与政府绩效管理研究。收稿日期：2015-03-11基金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12ZD020)Characteristics of Big-Data-Based Smart Public Decision MakingHu Shuigen Shan Lidong Xu Jingrui School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University; Abstract： As the world is changing fast and as the economic and social issues are getting more complicated,the traditional governance models of every country can no longer deal effectively with the challenges,complexities,and risks of the new era.The new generation of information technology,such as big data,cloud computing and internet of things have created necessary conditions for the transformation of governance models.Big data,the natural product of information technology,has introduced new ways to cognize data and opened up more space of imagination in utilizing data.Smart public decision making refers to a big-data-driven public decision-making model which assists decision makers in making more scientific and effective decisions in order to realize public benefit in complicated economic and social conditions.The model is supported by the new generation of information technology which utilizes big data resources featuring full range,quick speed,high value and diversity for real-time perception,analysis and prediction of the trend of development,and streamlining the decision-making process.Essentially,smart public decision making is a new big-data-driven public decision-making model of maximizing public interest.Supported by the new generation of information technology,it has the characteristics of comprehensiveness,objectivity and transparency,real-time and continuity,and autonomy and decentralized governance.Based on an analysis of the four basic elements of decision making,namely the body,process,means and goal,the internal logical relationship between big data and smart public decision making becomes clear.From the perspective of the body,big data facilitates the simultaneous experience and the logic of action of collaborative governance.As for the process,big data shows an entire chain of real-time consecutive decisions,on the basis of which predictions are made.As for the measures,big data can solve the technical problems that usually occur in data-driven decision making.In terms of the objective,big data can effectively guide and motivate public benefits.Smart public decision making has many new features such as comprehensiveness,objectivity and transparency,real-time and continuity,and autonomy and decentralized governance.Comprehensiveness means that with big data,public organizations are able to perceive a comprehensive range of social issues and public needs,discover the hot spots of demand,classify customer needs and provide accurate and customized service.Objectivity and transparency means that with this scientific model and consistent criteria,public organizations can involve the public in the objective and fair process,the scientific and effective system,and the open and transparent outcomes.Real-time and continuity means that the whole process from data collection,information transmission,knowledge mining,to decision-making and feedback is accomplished real-time and continuously.Autonomy means that smart public decision making exploits the features of data and makes predictions through the analysis of related data.It tackles the problem of both uncertainty and limited certainty by bringing greater certainty.Equipped with the structural systematic sensing network, the interactive data-visualization and automation of decision-making,it makes retrospective and predictive data analysis.Decentralized governance means that public organizations take the democratic decision-making mechanism as the kernel,the public interests,and the dominant values.Big data ensures the diversity of participants,democracy and scientificity ofdecision making,and the fairness of participation and outcome.Smart public decision making is a new development of public decision-making theories and paradigms in the data-driven era.Smart public decision making should not only emphasize instrumental rationality,but also pay more attention to its practice and value rationality from the disciplinary perspective.As far as practice is concerned,smart public decision making should do more detailed analysis of the topic applicability of policies.As far as policy innovation,and