中国为何大力支持新能源汽车Geopolitics drives Chinas policy on green carsChinese auto executives do not usually allude to the possibility of a shooting war in the South China Sea in the course of otherwise routine industry briefings. Yet Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, did just that last month during the launch of the companys latest electric car, developed by its joint venture with Daimler of Germany.中国汽车业高管通常不会在例行的行业简报中暗示南中国海爆发战争的可能性。然而，比亚迪(BYD)董事长王传福上月在推出该公司最新款电动汽车时就这么做了，这款汽车是该公司与德国戴姆勒(Daimler)联手组建的合资公司开发的。Asked why he was optimistic about electric vehicles in the worlds largest automotive market, Mr Wang argued that government policy support would be a critical factor in success, driven in large part by Beijings concerns about “the two 60 per cents”.在被问到他为何对全球最大汽车市场的电动汽车前景感到乐观时，王传福提出，政府政策支持将是一个关键的成功因素，这在一定程度上受到中国对于“两个60%”担忧的推动。China now imports about 60 per cent of its annual oil requirement and 60 per cent of those imports are shipped through the South China Sea, a region where the untested Peoples Liberation Army Navy is trying to project power and push back its Philippine, Vietnamese and US rivals.中国现在每年的石油需求有 60%左右依靠进口，其中 60%通过南中国海运输，在南中国海，未经沙场的解放军海军正试图投射实力，逼退菲律宾、越南和美国等对手。“The South China Sea is a very complicated problem, ” Mr Wang said, referring to the regions territorial disputes that could potentially spark a conflict and disrupt maritime traffic. “If ships could not deliver their oil China would face severe shortages.”“南中国海是一个非常复杂的问题，”王传福表示，他指的是该地区可能引发冲突并破坏海上交通的领土争端。“如果船舶无法运送石油，那么中国将面临严重的石油短缺。”There are other reasons the Chinese government this summer issued new and improved incentives to spur development of so-called NEVs, or new energy vehicles, most notably pollution. But Mr Wang argued that geopolitical concerns loomed largest in its formulation of policy support for alternative energy vehicles.今年夏季，中国政府推出新的、补贴力度加大的激励举措，以促进“新能源汽车”的开发，其中还有其他原因，最突出的是污染。但王传福辩称，地缘政治担忧是出台面向替代能源汽车的政策支持的最大因素。“Oil security is the biggest driver for NEV development, ” he said, adding that Premier Li Keqiangs “war on pollution”, declared in March this year, was “the second driver”.他表示：“石油安全是推动新能源汽车发展的最重要因素，”他补充称，李克强总理今年 3 月宣布“向污染宣战”是“第二个推动因素”。Mr Wang is a good salesman and clearly has an interest in highlighting forces that may drive up BYDs share price, especially given a collapse in sales of its gasoline-fuelled cars this year. But his analysis is worth paying attention to. Chinese auto executives, who are far better connected than their expatriate counterparts at multinational car companies, rarely share their insights on Beijings motivations and longer-term objectives in public settings.王传福擅长推销，显然，他强调可能推升比亚迪股价的因素对自己是有好处的，特别是在今年该公司汽油动力汽车销量大幅下滑的情况下。但他的分析是值得关注的。政界人脉远远强于跨国车企外籍高管的中国汽车业高管，很少在公开场合分享他们对于中国政府动机以及较长期目标的洞见。BYDs chairman also has better tuned political antennas than most.比亚迪董事长的政治敏感也要好于多数人。In addition to succeeding as a private entrepreneur in a state-dominated industry BYD began as a manufacturer of mobile phone batteries before diversifying into cars Mr Wang also has rather unusual partners.除了在一个政府主导的行业成为一个成功的民营企业家（比亚迪最初是一家手机电池制造商，后来进军汽车业）以外，王传福还有一些不寻常的合作伙伴。One of his largest investors is Li Lu, a student leader during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. After those ended in bloodshed, Mr Li fled to the US and ended up a billionaire fund manager. The former democracy activist spotted BYDs potential early and introduced Mr Wang to his idol, Warren Buffett, whose MidAmerican Energy Holdings is now the biggest single shareholder in the company.他的最大投资者之一是李禄，李禄曾在 1989 年天安门广场学生抗议活动中担任学生领袖。在抗议遭到流血镇压后，李禄逃往美国，最终成为一名亿万富翁基金经理。这位前民主活动人士早早发现了比亚迪的潜力，并把王传福介绍给他的偶像沃伦巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，巴菲特控股的中美能源(MidAmerican Energy Holdings)现在是比亚迪最大单一股东。Chinese demand for NEVs has been tepid, largely because of drivers concerns about the availability of an adequate charging infrastructure. There are only about 70, 000 NEVs in use in China, most of them public buses or taxis. That suggests the governments target of 500, 000 NEV sales next year and 5m by 2020 will be difficult to reach.中国对新能源汽车的需求一直不旺，主要是因为潜在车主对充电站的覆盖率感到担忧。中国的新能源汽车保有量只有 7 万辆左右，其中多数为公交车或出租车。这表明，中国政府制定的到明年销售 50 万辆以及到 2020 年销售 500 万辆新能源汽车的目标将很难实现。But Mr Wang said the government was determined to succeed and not just because it wants a vehicle fleet that can keep running even if maritime lifelines to Middle East oilfields were to be cut off. Beijing, he said, is concerned that while its auto industry may be the worlds largest, it is not the strongest. Foreign brands dominate the market.然而，王传福表示，政府决心实现目标，不仅因为如果通往中东油田的海上运输线被切断，中国希望拥有一支可以继续运转的车队。他表示，中国政府担心，尽管本土汽车行业可能为全球规模最大，但并非全球实力最强。外国品牌主宰着中国市场。According to BYDs chairman, NEVs offer Chinas domestic auto companies an alternative route to industry dominance. He is not alone in this view.王传福表示，新能源汽车将给中国国内汽车厂商提供另一条夺取行业主导地位的途径。这并非他一人的观点。Yesterday, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China expressed concern that government subsidies and incentives for NEVs only apply to those “produced in China under a Chinese brand”.