我们认为消费升级的潜力不可小觑，因为一小部分中端消费者的消费升级即可推动次 高端白酒市场的显著增长。随着收入增长和富裕中产阶层扩大，我们仍看好贵州茅 台、五粮液和泸州老窖等高端酒企；同时我们看好次高端白酒市场，尤其是像水井坊 等酒企，因为该市场收入增速相对较快而且竞争较为温和。我们认为消费升级的潜力不可小觑，因为一小部分中端消费者的消费升级即可推动次 高端白酒市场的显著增长。随着收入增长和富裕中产阶层扩大，我们仍看好贵州茅 台、五粮液和泸州老窖等高端酒企；同时我们看好次高端白酒市场，尤其是像水井坊 等酒企，因为该市场收入增速相对较快而且竞争较为温和。一项重要推动因素：消费升级仍是大势所趋 2017年前九个月高端和次高端白酒市场反弹主要受到商务活动繁荣和消费升级带动， 但我们认为消费升级是势头更强、更具可持续性的长期推动因素。这是因为，高端和 次高端白酒市场在国内白酒总消费量中仅占比1.2%，一小部分中端消费者的消费升级 即可推动这些市场领域大幅增长。此外我们看好次高端市场较为温和的市场整合，并 认为品牌建设、产品定位以及渠道控制是水井坊等企业实现市场份额增长的关键因 素。我们预计2017-21年高端/次高端市场收入年均复合增速为20%/17%，次高端市场 前八大酒企收入份额将从2016年的52%升至2021年的63%。首次覆盖两家酒企：水井坊评级为买入；今世缘评级为中性 我们预计水井坊将成为次高端品类中的赢家，受益于：(1) 对次高端及高端产品的战略 性侧重；(2) 雄厚的品牌实力；(3) 成功的渠道战略。我们预计2017-19年每股盈利年 均复合增速为57%（同业均值为28%），虽然以往水井坊因管理层变更和反腐行动的 影响而落后于同业，但我们认为目前公司有望随着市场复苏而重振辉煌。今世缘是江 苏省第二大酒企，市场份额5%，竞争优势包括：(1) 受益于次高端白酒市场；(2) 品牌 定位独特，面向商务宴请和婚宴需求；(3) 管理层持股。但由于品牌实力相对较弱而且 扎根在江苏省本土市场，我们预计其表现将落后于同业（2017-19年预期盈利年均复 合增速为11%而同业为28%）。* 全文翻译随后提供廖绪发, CFA (分析师)执业证书编号:S1420510120006 +86(21)2401-8902 | xufa.liaoghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司戴晔 (分析师)执业证书编号:S1420517070001 +86(21)2401-8944 | brian.daighsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司中国 饮料中国 饮料 坚守消费升级；首次覆盖水井坊和今世缘 (摘要)2018年1月8日 | 5:18AM CST证券研究报告北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。 因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一 因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 Executive Summary: Follow the consumption upgrade trend4High/upper mid-end market: Most attractive due to consumption upgrade5Upper mid-end market: Moderate consolidation and high entry barrier9Swellfun: Premium brands to revive past success, initiate at Buy13Kings Luck: Deeply rooted in the Jiangsu market, initiate at Neutral17M Buy upper mid-end player Swellfun.Further concentration in the upper mid-end market We see moderate consolidation in the upper mid-end market with top 8 players accounting for more than half of the market. Coupled with relatively high entry barriers, these spirit makers enjoy superior ROE and margins (18% and 21% in 9M17 vs. 16% and 20% for mid-end companies on average). We identify three key factors for competitiveness: (1) branding, (2) product positioning, and (3) channel control and see companies like Swellfun (Buy) gaining market share. We forecast the top 8 companies revenue share in this market to rise to 63% in 2021 vs. 52% in 2016. Sichuan Swellfun: Premium brands to revive past success, initiate at Buy The company had only 3% revenue share in the upper mid-end market in 2016 but we believe it can outpace its peers due to its: (1) strategic focus on key brands in the upper mid to high-end segment (85% of 2017E revenue contribution) which we expect to grow the fastest given consumption upgrade demand. (2) consistent investment on advertising and promotion to build on its brand cache of cultural heritage (Chinas oldest alcohol ferment relic) and deepen penetration with its revamped distribution model. (3) corporate governance and incentives with a deferred bonus plan introduced in 2016 to better align management incentives. Hence we initiate on the stock at Buy with a 12-month Rmb57.72 target price offering 20% upside potential. Jiangsu Kings Luck: Deeply rooted in the Jiangsu market, initiate at Neutral We initiate Kings Luck at Neutral with a 12-month Rmb16.84 target price offering 11% upside potential. The company is the second largest spirit player in Jiangsu with a market share of 5% as of 2016, with several competitive advantages: (1) exposure to the upper mid-end market (50%+ of 2016 revenue exposure); (2) unique brand positioning for business entertainment and wedding celebrations; (3) management ownership (15.6% shares). Yet 2017-19E earnings CAGR of 11% lags peers (28% average) which we attribute to its relatively weaker brand power and deep roots in the home province. 2018年1月8日4全球投资研究中国 饮料High/upper mid-end market: Most attractive due to consumption upgradeHigher-priced spirits saw faster growth in 2017 The listed spirit space saw accelerating growth in 2017, with total revenue +29% yoy in9M17, higher than 20% yoy in 1H17. Net income of 42% yoy was also vastly higher than 25% yoy in 1H17. Within the different price ranges, high-end players delivered 43% yoy revenue growth in 9M17, mostly thanks to Moutai (59% yoy). This was higher than upper mid-end revenue growth (22% yoy), which also triumphed over mid-end (12%yoy).Rising business activities and consumption upgrade are major drivers According to a survey done by research institute Horizonkey, high-end/upper mid-end spirits (more than Rmb300 per bottle) are more often used in social and business entertainment occasions. Hence, we think the fact that these two categories grew faster图表 2: Listed spirit companies saw revenues and net profits rebound. Revenue and net income growth of listed spirit companies (%yoy)图表 3: with the high-end and upper mid-end segments recovering strongly Revenue growth breakdown (%yoy)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70% Revenue yoyNet income yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%1Q161H169M1620161Q171H179M17High endUpper mid endMid