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硕士学位论文硕士学位论文 信息技术行业盈余管理与其股价变动的相关性分析 CORRELATIONANALYSIS OF THE EARNINGS MANAGEMENTIN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY AND ITS SHARE PRICE CHANGE 金瑞文金瑞文 哈尔滨工业大学哈尔滨工业大学 2014 年年 6 月月 国内图书分类号:F830.91 学校代码:10213 国际图书分类号:336.7 密级:公开 经济学硕士学位论文经济学硕士学位论文 信息技术行业盈余管理与其股价变动的相关性分析 硕 士 研 究 生 : 金瑞文 导 师 : 王艳珍副教授 申请学位 : 经济学硕士 学科 : 政治经济学 所 在 单 位 : 人文与社会科学学院 答 辩 日 期 : 2014 年 6 月 授予学位单位 : 哈尔滨工业大学 Classified Index: F830.91 U.D.C: 336.7 Dissertation for the Master Degree in Economics CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE EARNINGS MANAGEMENT IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY AND ITS SHARE PRICE CHANGE Candidate: Ruiwen Jin Supervisor: Associate Prof.Yanzhen Wang Academic Degree Applied for: Master of Economics Speciality: Political Economy Affiliation: School of Humanities and Social Science Date of Defence: June, 2014 Degree-Conferring-Institution: Harbin Institute of Technology 哈尔滨工业大学经济学硕士学位论文 - I - 摘 要 随着我国证券市场的发展,越来越多的企业通过上市在资本市场达到筹资的目的,在资本市场上筹资可以获得分散的资金,给企业带来更大的资金量,但是同时也会给上市公司带来更严格的要求,证监会对上市的企业实行监管,其中就包括要求上市公司对外公布企业的财务状况,使财务信息使用者能够更加全面的了解企业的经营现状。对于投资者来说,企业对外披露的财务信息是投资者进行投资决策时参考的主要信息,这些披露的财务信息会直接影响到投资者的投资判断,因此上市公司抓住这一点,会主动对企业的相关数据进行合法的修饰,彰显出企业利好的形势,影响投资者决策。起初对盈余管理方面的研究主要集中在其自身的理论研究上,很少研究盈余管理与其他指标的关系,本文就以此为思路,研究将盈余管理与股票价格波动之间的关系,试图站在资本市场上研究盈余管理现象的存在对股票价格波动的影响方向及程度。本文选取信息技术行业作为研究对象,其理由在于该行业的行业特点更具有对盈余水平进行调整的可能,例如机器设备更新换代快,具有较高的研发费用等,都给企业操纵利润带来了方便。从国内外研究的文献中可以发现, 起初对盈余管理方面的研究主要集中在其自身的理论研究上,很少研究盈余管理与其他指标的关系,本文就以此为思路,研究将盈余管理与股票价格波动之间的关系,试图站在资本市场上研究盈余管理现象的存在对股票价格波动的影响方向及程度。本文选取信息技术行业作为研究对象,其理由在于该行业的行业特点更具有对盈余水平进行调整的可能,例如机器设备更新换代快,具有较高的研发费用等,都给企业操纵利润带来了方便。 本文运用修正的琼斯模型求解出各个样本企业盈余管理程度的大小,也就是将盈余管理程度用财务指标进行量化,其次将求解的操纵性应计利润和其他盈余指标与股票收益率建立多元线性回归模型,其目的是在回归模型的的分析结果中可以看出,盈余管理程度与其他盈余指标对股票价格波动的影响方向及程度大小,再根据以上的研究结果得出结论,并提出合理化建议来规范我国资本市场。 关键词:信息技术行业,盈余管理,股价 哈尔滨工业大学经济学硕士学位论文 - II - Abstract With the development of securities market in our country, more and more enterprises to achieve the purpose of financing through listed in the capital markets, In the capital market financing can make the enterprise obtain decentralized capital, bringing more cash flow.But at the same time it will bring more strict requirements for the listed company. The securities and futures commission exercises supervision and control over the listed companies including enterprises financial position announced by the listed companies,making the financial information users have a more comprehensive understanding of the management status of the enterprise.For investors, corporate disclosure of financial information is the main information as a reference for investors make investment decisions, the disclosure of financial information will directly affect the investors investment judgment, therefore seize this, listed companies will be active to modify enterprises financial information with legal, reflect the situation of enterprise benefit, affect the decision-making of investors.With the deepening of the research of earnings management to carry on the quantitative empirical analysis, from the literature can be found in the research at home and abroad,the research of earnings management mainly focused on the management concept of the surplus itself, seldom study the relationship between earnings management and other indicators, the idea is to study the surplus management and the relationship between the stock price fluctuations, try to stand in the capital market research the existence of earnings management behavior of stock price effect the influence degree and direction. This article selects the information technology industry as the research object, the reason is that the industry characteristics of the industry has to adjust the level of surplus, such as machinery and equipment is upgraded quickly, have high development costs, etc., have brought convenience to the enterprise operation profit. This paper uses the modified Jones model to solve the various samples of the size of the degree of enterprise surplus management, that is to quantify the degree of earnings management with financial indicators, secondly ,establish multiple linear regression model with maneuvering accrued profits, other indicators surplus and stock returns , the purpose is to can see the results of regression model in the analysis, the degree of earnings management and other surplus index on the fluctuation of stock price direction and degree of size, again 哈尔滨工业大学经济学硕士学位论文 - III - according to the results of the above research conclusion, and put forward reasonable Suggestions to regulate the capital market in our country. Keywords: information technology industry, earnings management stock index, stock price 哈尔滨工业大学经济学硕士学位论文 - IV - 目 录 摘 要 . I ABSTRACT . II 目 录 .
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