上市公司分析谨防三高上市公司分析谨防三高夏草看病的时候,医生常将要注意三高，这三高指的是高血压、高血脂、高血糖，审阅上市公司财务报表 时，也要注意三高，但此三高彼非三高，这三高指的是高成长、高毛利及高现金。对于一位价值投资者，三高意味着这家公司成长性好、盈利能力强及财务弹性高，股神巴菲特就喜 欢这样的股票，这也成了价值投资者择股的理想标准，遗憾的是白马非马，现实中碰到三高股票时，如 果发现该公司市盈率很低，不要以为真得找到估值洼地，这洼地可能就是你投资的泥沼，一旦陷入，痛 苦一生。纳斯达克上市公司绿诺科技（RINO）近日承认财务造假：On November 18, 2010, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of RINO International Corporation (the “Registrant”) a Nevada corporation, concluded that previously issued audited financial statements of the Registrant for its fiscal years ended December 31, 2008 and 2009, which were included in the Registrants Annual Reports on Form 10-K for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2008 and 2009, and previously issued interim unaudited financial statements which were included in the Registrants Quarterly Reports on Form 10- Q for the periods ended March 31, 2008 to September 30, 2009 should no longer be relied on. 1 The Board also concluded that previously issued interim unaudited financial statements which were included in the Registrants Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the periods March 31, 2010, June 30, 2010 and September 30, 2010 should no longer be relied on inasmuch as such financial statements incorporate results from 2008 and 2009. The conclusion of the Board that the financial statements for the above-described periods should not be relied upon was based on statements made by the Registrants Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Zou Dejun, after consultation with the Registrants Chief Accountant, who reported to the Board that the Registrant did not enter into two contracts for which it reported revenue during the Registrants 2008 and 2009 fiscal years. 绿诺科技实体大连绿诺环境工程科技有限公司主要从事 flue gasdesulfurization (“FGD”， 烟气脱硫) system，由于该公司具有环保概念，且高成长（09 年收入增长 55%，净利增长 165%） 、高毛利（09 年毛 利率将近 40%，净利率近 50%） ，高现金（09 年末现金占资产总额的 52%） ，导致该公司股价一度冲至 35 美元，如今看来这一切都是骗局，该公司涉嫌虚构收入、虚增资产，账面的 2。59 亿元资产疑大部分涉 嫌虚构，包括现金、应收账款及预付账款，该公司造假有两个明显征兆，一是盈利能力超强，二是存货 周转率畸低，账面资产基本是非实物资产；独立机构 Muddy Waters 通对其主要客户的确认及工商局年检 报表的调查发现了该公司财务异常，以下是绿诺科技 09 年财报及 2010 年 Q3 节选数据：绿诺科技造假却不是个案，最近大家热议的纳斯达克上市公司中国高速频道（CCME）疑有相同的造 假情节，中国高速传媒实际运营的公司为福建分众传媒有限公司，成立于 2003 年，主要业务是利用城际巴 士车载电视做媒体广告，是目前中国最大的巴士车载电视媒体，覆盖全国 35 座一级城市，辐射 316 座二、 三级城市 4000 多条客运主干线，近 23000 辆城际巴士、机场巴士、旅游巴士车载电视独家广告经营权。 2010 年 6 月 3 日，中国高速传媒股票转板至纳斯达克全球精选市场交易。中国高速频道财报呈现出典型的三高症状，高成长（2010 年前三季度收入增长 142%，净利增长 150%） 、 高毛利（2010 年前三季度毛利率 73%，净利率 44%） 、高现金（2010 年第三季度末现金占资产总额的 77%， 笔者怀疑该公司虚构收入、虚减费用、虚增资产，账面的 1.7 亿美元基本为虚构，这是网上贴的该公司十 大红旗警讯：10 redflags of CCME 1. Why did insider sell the stock at $9 two weeks before the stock running up to $22? Are the insiders so stupid and a poor market timer? 2. Where is the share buyback that was announced? 3. Where is the dividend? 4. Why did CCME have exceptionally low interest income ratio, while VISN the opposite, among the four competitors? Here is the Interest Income/Ending Cash Balance ratio in percentage for Q2. FMCN（分众传媒）: 0.19% . AMCN（航美传媒）: 0.20% . VISN（华视传媒）: 0.83% . CCME（中国高速频道）: 0.06%Notes: (1) These were for Q2 2010(2) The denominator was Ending Cash Balance. 5. Why does CCME has extremely high margin relative to its competitors? In Q2, 2010, CCME reported a margin of 79%, while its competitors reported low or negative margin. VISN was 23% and AMCN was -10%. Again, are they all in China? CCME must have some magic power to achieve that.6. How can CCME generate 3.4x revenue per LCD than its competitors? CCME has roughly 55-60k displays; VISN has like 120k LCDs. In Q2, 2010. VISNs total revenue was $31 million and CCME generated $53 million from much less LCDs. Each CCMEs LCD generated 3.4x more revenue than that of VISN. How can CCME do this?7. Why CCME selling expense is so low? CCME selling expense is 3% of revenue . However, its competitors are much higher, FMCN 38%, VISN 22%. You have to believe that CCME is operating in completely different market from FMCN or VISNs. These costs have to rise if the number is even being correctly reported. Seems to be too low ? Are you forgetting what happened to AMCN. Go back and review AMCN which too started out strong, but the concession fees rose quickly to 73% of revenue.8. How can CCME increase its revenue by more than 20 fold while sales force remain almost flat? http:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1. According to SEC form DEFM14a 2009-10-05 page 118-151, CCMEs revenue grew more than 20 fold from 2006 to 2009 while its sales force almost remained flat. CCME reported revenues of $4 million, $26 million, 63 million and $95 million for year 2006 2007, 2008 and 2009, correspondingly. The reported people in sale force for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 are 58, 76, 63note 1 and 63, corespondingly. -2006 - 2007 -2008 -2009 REVENUE(MILLION) -4 26- 63- 95 SALE FORCE -58p151- 76p151- 63p148 -63p118 In year 2007, 2008 and 2009, CCME experienced amazing revenue growth of 600%, 142% and 50%, correspondingly. However, its sale force has not chang