Team#7018 Page1 of 37For office use onlyT1 _T2 _T3 _T4 _Team Control Number 7018Problem Chosen cFor office use onlyF1 _F2 _F3 _F4 _SummaryThe article is aimed to research the potential impact of the marine garbage debris on marine ecosystem and human beings，and how we can deal with the substantial problems caused by the aggregation of marine wastes.In task one，we give a definition of the potential long-term and short-term impact of marine plastic garbage. Regard the toxin concentration effect caused by marine garbage as long-term impact and to track and monitor it. We etablish the composite indicator model on density of plastic toxin，and the content of toxin absorbed by plastic fragment in the ocean to express the impact of marine garbage on ecosystem. Take Japan sea as example to examine our model.In ask two, we designe an algorithm, using the density value of marine plastic of each year in discrete measure point given by reference，and we plot plastic density of the whole area in varies locations. Based on the changes in marine plastic density in different years， we determine generally that the center of the plastic vortex is EastWest140W150W, SouthNorth30N40N. According to our algorithm, we can monitor a sea area reasonably only by regular observation of part of the specified measuring pointIn task three，we classify the plastic into three types，which is surface layer plastic，deep layer plastic and interlayer between the two. Then we analysis the the degradation mechanism of plastic in each layer. Finally，we get the reason why those plastic fragments come to a similar size.In task four， we classify the source of the marine plastic into three types，the land accounting for 80%，fishing gears accounting for 10%，boating accounting for 10%，and estimate the optimization model according to the duel-target principle of emissions reduction and management. Finally, we arrive at a more reasonable optimization strategy.In task five，we first analyze the mechanism of the formation of the Pacific ocean trash vortex， and thus conclude that the marine garbage swirl will also emerge in south Pacific，south Atlantic and the India ocean. According to the Concentration of diffusion theory, we establish the differential prediction model of the future marine garbage density，and predict the density of the garbage in south Atlantic ocean. Then we get the stable density in eight measuring point .In task six, we get the results by the data of the annual national consumption of polypropylene plastic packaging and the data fitting method, and predict the environmental benefit generated by the prohibition of polypropylene take-away food packaging in the next decade. By means of this model and our prediction，each nation will reduce releasing 1.31 million tons of plastic garbage in next decade.Finally, we submit a report to expediction leader，summarize our work and make some feasible Team#7018 Page2 of 37suggestions to the policy- makers. Task 1:Definition: Potential short-term effects of the plastic: the hazard effects will be shown in the short term. Potential long-term effects of the plastic: the potential effects, of which hazards are great, will appear after a long time. The short- and long-term effects of the plastic on the ocean environment:In our definition, the short-term and long-term effects of the plastic on the ocean environment are as follows. Short-term effects: 1）The plastic is eaten by marine animals or birds.2） Animals are wrapped by plastics, such as fishing nets, which hurt or even kill them.3）Deaden the way of the passing vessels. Long-term effects: 1）Enrichment of toxins through the food chain: the waste plastic in the ocean has no natural degradation in the short-term, which will first be broken down into tiny fragments through the role of light, waves, micro-organisms, while the molecular structure has not changed. These “plastic sands“, easy to be eaten by plankton, fish and other, are Seemingly very similar to marine lifes food, causing the enrichment and delivery of toxins.2）Accelerate the greenhouse effect: after a long-term accumulation and pollution of plastics, the water became turbid, which will seriously affect the marine plants (such as phytoplankton and algae) in photosynthesis. A large number of planktons deaths would also lower the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide, intensifying the greenhouse effect to some extent.Team#7018 Page3 of 37To monitor the impact of plastic rubbish on the marine ecosystem:According to the relevant literature, we know that plastic resin pellets accumulate toxic chemicals , such as PCBs、DDE , and nonylphenols , and may serve as