风险企业家动态价值评估的研究风险企业家动态价值评估的研究南京航空航天大学 硕士学位论文 风险企业家动态价值评估研究 姓名：侯鉴航 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：企业管理 指导教师：王鲁捷 20060101 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 随着人类社会迈入“知识经济”时代以及风险投资业的兴起，风险企业也在 全世界各地蓬勃发展起来，当今世界众多知名高科技企业，如 IBM 、Apple 、 Microsoft 、Intel、DIGITAL 等公司等都是由风险企业演化而来。由于风险企业对 高新技术转化为生产力所起的作用巨大，近年来我国也开始大力发展风险企业， 截至 2003 年底，全国至少有上千亿的风险投资，大约有 6000 家风险投资公司。 虽然我国风险企业数量迅速增长，但在实践中存在着投资成功率不高、效益不佳 等现象。导致风险企业失败率过高的因素很多，但重要原因之一是风险企业家价 值评估理论的缺失，风险投资家对其监督成本过高并且诱发风险企业家道德风险 的频发。 文章采用以定量、定性和实证研究为主的方法，致力于风险企业家价值评估 问题的研究，提出了动态评估方法，主要做了如下工作：论述了风险企业及其企 业家的相关理论，并重新定义了风险企业家的概念；在对企业家价值评估理论和 实物期权理论的研究现状进行综述的基础上，创新性地提出了以实物期权方法为 基础解决风险企业家价值评估问题，论证了方法可行性，评估的基本原理和主要 流程，并建立了动态定量评估方案；最后，文章以“中药抗抑郁症 X 胶囊”项 目相关数据进行了实证研究，检验了风险企业家动态价值评估方案的合理性。 创新风险企业家价值评估方法，可以降低风险投资家的监控成本，从“激励” 角度更好解决风险企业家与风险投资家的合作问题，对于完善风险企业治理结 构，丰富企业家定价理论以及促进我国风险投资业的健康发展具有较深远的意 义。 关键词：风险企业家，风险投资家，价值评估，实物期权，人力资本定价 I 风险企业家动态价值评估研究 ABSTRACT While human society is entering the era of “knowledge economy“ as well as venture investment industry is springing up, venture business is vigorously developing all over the world. Nowadays multitudinous well-known high-tech corporations in the world, such as IBM 、Apple 、Microsoft 、Intel、DIGITAL and so on all evolved from the venture business. Because venture business plays important role in transforming the high-tech to the productive, in recent years our country also has developed it energetically. Up to the end of 2003, the nation had the venture capital over RMB one hundred billion at least, and approximately some 6,000 venture investment corporations. Although the quantity of venture business in our country has been increasing rapidly, in practice it has the problem such as the investment success ratio is not high, the investment benefit is not good, etc. There are ma ny causes lead to the high ratio of venture businesss defeat, but one important reason is that the theory of venture entrepreneurs value evaluation is deficient, the surveillance cost which venture investor spend on venture entrepreneur is excess and it induced venture entrepreneurs moral risk to occur frequently. This thesis primarily used the quantificational method, qualitative method and positivistic method, devoted in the research on venture entrepreneurs value evaluation. It proposed the dynamic evaluation method and mainly did the following work: It elaborated the related theory of venture business and its entrepreneur, and redefined the concept of venture entrepreneur; Based the summary of present research situation that the theory of venture entrepreneurs value evaluation and real option, the paper innovatively proposed to take real option method as the foundation to solve the problem of venture entrepreneurs value evaluation. It demonstrated feasibility of this method, the basic principle and the main evaluation flow, afterwards it established a dynamic quantificational scheme;Finally, the paper conducted the positivistic research with correlative data in project “X capsule of curing depression by Chinese traditional medicine“, and it examined the rationality of venture entrepreneurs dynamic value evaluation scheme. The innovation of venture entrepreneurs value evaluation method may reduce venture investors surveillance cost, it may also solve the cooperation problem between venture entrepreneur and venture investor from “stimulation“ angle. It has the profound significance in consummating government structure of venture business, II 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 enriching the entrepreneurs pricing theory as well as promoting venture investment industry in our country to develop healthily. Key Words : Venture Entrepreneur ，Venture Investor，Value Evaluation， Real Option，Human Capital Pricing III 承诺书 本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文，是本人在导师指导下，独立 进行研究工作所取得的成果。尽我所知，除文中已经注明引用的内容 外，本学位论文的研究成果不包含任何他人享有著作权的内容。对本 论文所涉及的研究工作做出贡献的其他个人和集体，均已在文中以明 确方式标明。 本人授权南京航空航天大学可以有权保留送交论文的复印件，允 许论文被查阅和借阅,可以将学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数 据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或其他复制手段保存论文。 保密的学位论文在解密后适用本承诺书 作者签名： 日 期： 风险企业家动态价值评估研究 图表清单 图 1.1 我国风险投资的资本构成分布.2 图 1.2 课题研究的技术路径.9 图 2.1 风险企业创业周期与风险资本形态. 11 图 2.2 风险投资中的双重委托代理关系. 14 图 2.3 风险投资合作过程. 15 图 2.4 风险企业家的价值构成. 19 图 4.1 风险企业发展阶段与投资决策.