经济学家读译经济学家读译 BricksBricks andand slaughterslaughter 实体房地产业屠刀在手实体房地产业屠刀在手A special report on property关于房地产的特别报道Bricks and slaughter实体房地产业屠刀在手Property is widely seen as a safe asset. It is arguably the most dangerous of all, says Andrew Palmer房地产被广泛视为一种安全的资产。安德鲁?帕麦尔(Andrew Palmer)则认为，它可被认为是所有资产中最危险的一种。Mar 3rd 2011 | from the print editionTHERE are plenty of candidates, from the ghost estates of Ireland to the foreclosure signs on American homes. But as a symbol of the property cycle that still distorts the world economy, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai (pictured above) takes some beating. The worlds tallest building is literally built on sand. Its height, at half a mile (838 metres), violates a basic rule of commercial property: when land is plentiful, build outward to use up as much of it as possible. The building opened in January 2010, just weeks after the emirate announced a standstill on debts largely incurred on glitzy property projects. Its name was hastily changed from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa to honour the ruler of Abu Dhabi for sending bail-out funds to its fellow emirate. A year on, tourists cluster at its base to take photos or to visit the observation deck; inside, many of the flats lie empty.就房地产周期仍在扭曲世界经济而言，从爱尔兰鬼屋到美国住宅上的止赎标志，有望成为象征的候选者众多，但（上图所示的）迪拜哈利法塔(Burj Khalifa)仍能拔得头筹。这座全球最高的建筑名副其实是建设在沙地之上，其半英里（838 米）的高度违背了商业房地产的一条基本规则：当土地充裕时，应使建筑水平扩张，以尽可能多地占用土地。这座建筑在 2010 年 1 月启用，而仅仅数周之前，迪拜酋长国刚刚宣布暂停偿还主要源于光彩夺目的房地产项目的债务。新楼名称被匆匆由迪拜塔(Burj Dubai)改为哈利法塔，以此向阿布扎比的统治者致敬，感谢阿布扎比为其酋长国同伴提供救市资金一事。一年之后，游客们或簇拥在大楼底层留影，或在观景台上参观；而在大楼内部，许多公寓仍然空置。Dubais record-breaker is also a powerful emblem of forgetfulness. According to Andrew Lawrence of Barclays Capital, the construction of exceptionally tall buildings is a reliable indicator of economic crises in the making. From the time the first skyscraper went upthe Equitable Life Building in New York, in 1870to the completion of the Empire State Building (1931) and the World Trade Centre (1972) in the same city and the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur (1998), great height has usually coincided with big trouble.迪拜这座破记录的大楼也是人类健忘性的强有力象征。根据巴克莱银行(Barclays Capital)的安德鲁?劳伦斯(Andrew Lawrence)的说法，兴建高度超乎寻常的建筑正是酝酿中的经济危机的可靠指示。从首座摩天大楼（1870 年建于纽约的公平人寿保险公司大楼）拔地而起之日开始，到同样位于纽约的帝国大厦（1931 年）和世界贸易中心（1972 年）以及位于吉隆坡的双子星塔（1998 年）落成之日为止，超级高度往往与重大麻烦同时到来。Mr Lawrences theory is not perfect, but it feels right. Property moves in cycles, and the more ambitious the scale of construction on the way up, the steeper the drop on the way down. A sharp turn in the property cycle is a serious matter. The five big banking blow-ups in the rich world before the latest crisis (Spain in the 1970s, Norway in the 1980s and Sweden, Finland and Japan in the 1990s) had property at their heart. Banking crises in the developing world have also tended to happen at the peak of housing booms or just after a bust in prices.劳伦斯的理论并不完美，但感觉上是正确的。房地产按周期循环运行，大厦在经济上行时期建得越高，下行时便跌得越惨。房地产周期的骤然转变事关重大。在最近这场危机之前，富裕世界的五次大规模银行业危机中，房地产都占据着核心位置（它们分别是上世纪70 年代的西班牙危机，80 年代的挪威危机，90 年代的瑞典、芬兰以及日本危机） 。发展中世界的银行业危机同样往往发生于房地产兴旺发展的巅峰期，或紧随房价泡沫破灭之后。Not all booms are alike. There were many reasons for the housing bubble that has now burst, from huge amounts of global liquidity seeking high returns to the rise of private-label securitisation. But it is striking how often property causes financial trouble. “We do not want to fight the last war,” says one European banking regulator, referring to property busts, “but the fact is that we keep fighting the same war over and over.”并非所有的繁荣都如出一辙。在目前已经破灭的房地产泡沫背后，有着从追求高回报的海量全球流动性，到按揭证券兴起等许多原因。但令人震惊的一点在于，房地产导致金融问题的频率有多么高。一位欧洲银行业监管者表示：“我们不愿再打前一场战争，但事实却是，我们反反复复地打着同一场战争。 ”Markets remain horribly fragile. Dud commercial-property assets clog banks balance-sheets. House prices in America and several European markets are still falling. This special report will argue that the effects of property booms and busts can be made less damaging, but that the asset itself is inherently unsafe. Another rich-world bubble may be unlikely in the near term, but things feel very different in emerging markets. In China in particular, the worry is about another bubble that could shake the world economy. And even in developed markets, property, which many people regard as stable, will always be prone to volatility.市场依旧脆弱得可怕。不能发挥效用的商业房地产资产阻塞着银行的资产负债表。美国和几个欧洲国家的房价仍在下降。本期特别报道将论证，房地产繁荣与泡沫破灭的影响可以变得危害较小，但这种资产本身却具有与生俱来的危险性。短期之内或许不太可能出现另一个富裕世界的房地产泡沫，但新兴市场中的情况却很不一样。尤其是在中国，人们所担忧的是另一个可以撼动世界经济的泡沫。而且即便是在发达市场中，被许多人认为稳定的房地产仍将总是易于反复无常。Why is property so dangerous? One obvious answer is the sheer size of the asset class. The aggregate value of property held by American households in the peak year of 2006 was $22.7 trillion, their biggest single asset by a wide margin (pension-fund reserves were next, at $12.8 trillion). 房地产为何如此危险？这种资产类别的纯粹规模是一个显而易见的答案。在 2006 年顶峰时期，美国家庭持有的房地产总值为 22.7 万亿美元，以巨大优势位列其所拥有的单项资产之首，排名第二的是12.8 万亿美元的养老金基金储备。 Working out the figures in other countries involves much more guesswork. Back in 2002 this newspaper reckoned that residential property