狭水道追鱼狭水道追鱼safety system engineer; extenics;matter-element model;fuzzy analytic hierarchy process;fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment海运是高风险行业,“航行更安全,海洋更清洁”是整个海运界所渴望并为之孜孜以求的目标,也是生态平衡、人类可持续发展的需要。但是,随着现代世界贸易和航海技术的飞速发展,船舶向大型化、高速化、专用化、自动化发展,船上配员向多国籍化发展,局部地区交通运输日益繁忙,尤其是在狭水道操纵安全,使得船舶航行环境变的恶劣和船舶运动性能也有所降低。尽管现代航海设备的可靠性和航海技术水平越来越高,在狭水道还是频繁发生海事,使人们对船上的生命、财产、环境构成了极大的危害。如何有效提高狭水道操纵安全水平一直是海运界思考的问题。然而狭水道操纵安全理论还没有充分的确立。本文针对目前这种状况从安全评价的角度,应用可拓物元和模糊数学评价的方法对狭水道操纵安全进行评价。 所谓安全评价是安全系统工程的一个重要组成部分,对安全问题进行数量分析、评价,是安全科学发展和日益完善的一个重要标志。运用数学方法和计算技术研究故障和事故及其影响因素之间的数量关系,揭示其间的数量变化及规律,是安全管理及管理科学发展的一大进步,这也是对海运安全管理的发展的一大进步。 全文首先从安全系统工程的角度出发,简要分析和归纳了几种定量评价方法。根据评价对象的特性和评价方法的特点,选定物元和模糊数学评价的方法作为本文评价的手段。 利用定性和定量相结合的系统分析方法,着重以影响狭水道操纵安全因素为评价对象,从单船的角度考虑,在综合分析影响狭水道船舶航行安全的内部因素和自然因素的基础上,参考大量文献,结合实际情况和其他学者的相关研究成果确定评价因素体系。 根据国内外有关安全评价的相关资料和数据调查、分析、统计、结合专家意见,制定了各评价因素的指标评价标准。在以上基础上,建立物元和模糊综合评价的数学模型。 为了验证本文所建立的模型的正确性、适用性,将该模型在湄洲湾进港狭水道进行检验,得出的结果比较符合实际情况。该项研究可为港口监督人员、航道管理人员、船公司指挥人员、VTS 指挥人员和船舶驾驶员提供一定的科学依据,具有一定的实用价值。Shipping is an industry with high risk. “Safer navigation, and cleaner ocean“ is not only the goal of shipping industry but is also the need of ecological balance and sustainable development of human beings. With the fast development of the world trade and the technology of navigation, a vessel is becoming larger in size, higher in speed, more specialized in use and automatic in manoeuver; the seamen are much more multinational, and some sea areas are undergoing a heavier transportation pressure. All of these make the navigation environment worse and svessels manipulating ability lower, especially in those narrow channels. So even the shipping facilities are highly advanced and the technology of navigation is greatly developed, there are still many maritime disasters happening in those narrow channels which bring great danger to people“s life and cargo on board and also cause pollution to the ocean. Therefore, how to improve narrow channel manoeuver safety is always a hotly discussed question in the navigation circles. However, the narrow channel manoeuvre safety theory is not yet in full shape. Regarding this situation, the author here is trying to apply matter-element assessment method and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment method to assess narrow channel manoeuver safety.The so called safety assessment is an essential part in the safety system engineering and using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze and assess the safety problem can be counted as an important milestone in the development and perfection of the safety science. The application of mathematical methods and computing techniques into the analysis of the relationship between malfunctions and accidents is a big step forward in the progress of the safety management and management science. This is also true in the development of safety management in shipping.In the first part, according to the characteristic of assessing object and specialty of the several quantitative assessment methods, through the comparison, the matter-element assessment method and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment method whose applicability has been proved in practice are selectedto be used here.And according to the reality ,the author on the base of intensive studies of other scholars“ relevant research. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are utilized to analyze the internal factors and natural factors which influence the narrow channels safety.And in the second part, both quantitative and qualitative methods are utilized to analyze the internal factors and natural factors which influence the narrow channels safety. And then on the base of intensive studies of other scholars“ relevant research and the reality, the author works out the assessment factors system which is applicable to single shipping safety assessment. Then the criteria for assessing each factor are developed after studying the relevant data, statistical analysis and some experts“ suggestions both at home and abroad. It is on this foundation that the mathematical model of the matter-element and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment is established.And the test of the established model is held to prove their correctness and applicability in MEIZHOU BAY narrow channels.The test results are consistent with the theory. So the author believes that the model could be useful to the port monitors, sea-route administers, commanders of the shipping companies and VTS and also seamen for its practical value.