Disclaimer dairy prices have recovered after falling to low levels in 2015/16 and sugar prices have fallen on strong supply. Rising trade protectionism presents a growing risk Escalation in trade protection measures recently, and the threat of more action, could be a challenge for the resources and agricultural industries. The US administration has announced a proposal to increase tariffs on steel and aluminium. China has put a case to the WTO on sorghum imports from China, not long after the US introduced new trade restrictions on solar panels and some white goods. The possibility of retaliation by other countries to rising US tariffs presents risks and considerable uncertainty. Chinese policy has constrained some supply but a now more flexible supply side, with lower costs, could weigh on prices Resources sector investment should start to rise soon Global energy transition is good for battery commodities, like lithium Grain is oversupplied, while demand for meat and dairy is strong Steel, aluminium and sorghum are currently in focus for trade policy 3 ECONOMICS HSBC estimates Global commodity prices are expected to rise gradually Gradual upswing is underway Commodity demand is being supported by faster global growth and the Belt and Road Initiative, despite China nearing peak construction Chinese policy is constraining onshore metals supply and much of the global excess capacity has been absorbed, supporting prices With costs having fallen, profit margins widening and demand rising, the resources industry is ripe for an investment upswing 0501001502000501001502001992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018IndexIndexAggregate Commodity Prices*Nominal prices* IMF All commodity price index * Real base = June 2012, deflated by US CPIReal prices*HSBC resource analysts forecasts5 ECONOMICS World Bank; HSBC estimates 1.8. China dominates metals consumption 1.9. China is a big commodity producer Source: World Bank Source: World Bank China dominates demand for metals 04812160.00.40.81.21.6ADB current annual spendADB estimated spend additionChina 2009 fiscal spendADB estimated spend additionChina 2009 fiscal spendThe scale of infrastructure potential spend$US tr% of Chinas GDPUSD additional spendUSD current spend010203040506070AluminiumCopper (refined)NickelIron oreZincLeadThermal CoalChinese metals production Share of global supply in 2015 (%)ECONOMICS IEA; US EIA; HSBC estimates Despite US shale, excess oil capacity has been gradually absorbed Preconditions are in place for more investment plans in the oil sector, but most spending is currently in US shale 1.15. Non-OPEC majors set to be a drag on supply, unless investment lifts Source: BP; IEA; US EIA; HSBC estimates 02000400060008000100001200014000Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18US Imports and Exports of Oil and Petroleum 4-week averageImportsExportsNet imports000 barrels per day-1.50.01.53.0-1.50.01.53.020142015201620172018201920202021Marginal change in oil demand and supply Annual, million barrels per dayOPEC crude prod.OPEC NGLs prod.US tight prod.Other non-OPEC prod.Total supplyDemand11 ECONOMICS IMF 1.17. Battery-related commodities have had significant price gains Source: Bloomberg A shift to lower-carbon emitting energy is underway Lithium, cobalt, graphite and other battery-commodities are in a super-cycle 0%20%40%60%80%100%18751900192519501975200020152030fPrimary Energy Consumption Shares - United Statescoalotheroilgaswood05000100001500020000Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Lithium PricesEurope Lithium Carbonate North American Lithium Carbonate Asia Lithium CarbonateUSD/tECONOMICS US steel import tariff: Bigger than steel, Jeff Yuan, 2 March 2018). As we pointed out above, China dominates metals consumption and is a large producer of most metals, so we expect that the US tariff changes on steel and aluminium are unlikely to have a significant effect on Chinas role in these markets. The risk is largely around any retaliatory protectionist measures and how that may play out for global trade. As we have noted previously, the likely policy response to slower growth in global trade, driven by rising protectionism, would be a greater focus on domestic-demand driven growth by the Chinese authorities and on the BRI both of which would be quite commodity-intensive (see Global Commodities: Upswing is expected to continue, 15 March 2017). As a result, the protectionist threat could make growth more metals-intensive. 1.19. Most grains are still oversupplied, which has been weighing on prices Source: Bloomberg US steel tariffs are unlikely to have much effect on China and thus most of the demand for metals 1.20. US steel tariffs likely to have biggest effect on Canada, Brazil and Korea Source: IHS Global Trade Atlas 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.000.100.200.300.400.5019801984198819921996200020