南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文I摘 要在市场竞争日益白热化产品同质化日趋严重的今天市场逐渐由过去的产品驱动向渠道驱动转化营销渠道的重要性越来越明显渠道成为了决定企业竞争力的最重要的因素在市场竞争中谁掌握了渠道谁就掌握了主动维系营销渠道的稳定和畅通成为企业不可回避的课题本文研究以营销渠道管理理论风险管理理论及其风险预警理论为研究基础以营销渠道风险为研究对象以渠道风险预警为主线对营销渠道的风险及其诱因进行全面系统的分析研究并建立一套风险预警评价指标体系最终通过预警模型实现对营销渠道风险预警的功能本文首先对营销渠道管理和风险管理的状况进行了一个综合的分析内容包括研究热点现状以及营销渠道管理的发展趋势为下面的营销渠道风险诱因研究提供理论依据随后进行营销渠道风险的识别从营销渠道内部和外部入手提出营销渠道风险诱因研究假设再根据研究假设设计调查问卷通过对问卷结果的统计分析判断诱因假设的合理性最终形成一套较为科学的风险诱因体系接着通过营销渠道风险识别的结果构建出营销渠道风险预警指标体系并对每个指标进行解释说明其目的是为了使营销渠道风险信息定量化条理化和可操作化最后也是本文的核心部分基于支持向量回归构建了营销渠道风险预警模型支持向量回归是支持向量机的一种算法而支持向量机是基于统计学习理论和结构风险最小化的一种先进的学习方法在论文的最后选择了圣象集团有限公司对该模型进行了验证和实证分析关键词营销渠道风险风险诱因预警指标风险预警模型企业营销渠道风险识别及其预警体系研究IIAbstractWith the rapid development of the marketing and the homogeneity of the product, the market gradually transforms from the product-driven to the channel-driven, and the importance of the marketing channel becomes more and more obvious, and channel becomes the key factor of the competition among enterprises. In the competitive market, who have mastered the channels will master the initiative. To maintain the stability and unimpeded of the channel become an unavoidable topic of the enterprise.This thesis researches on the risk of marketing channel, based on the marketing channel management theory, risk management theory and risk early-warning theory, analyzes the marketing channel risk and the inducement roundly. Then, an index system of risk early-warining theory was established, finally achieves successful results. First of all, this thesis analyzes the development of marketing channel management and risk management comprehensively, including the development history of current research focus, and development trend of both marketing channel management and risk management. Secondly, this thesis analyzes the inducement factors of marketing channel management, and proposes the study hypotheses of inducement of risk. Based on the hypotheses, survey questionnaire has been designed. Through making statistic analysis on the results of questionnaire, rationality of hypotheses of inducement of crisis has been estimated. After eliminating and categorizing the inducement factors, inducement factors system has been proposed. According to the index system design strategy, this thesis indexes the inducement factor of marketing channel risk on the basis of scientific analysis of inducement factors of marketing channel. Besides, every index has been discussed and the early- warning index system of marketing chain risk has been established. Finally, early-warning model of marketing chain risk has been created based on support vector regression, which is a variant of support vector machine. Support vector machine is based on statistics learning theory and structure risk minimization. They represent special advantages when solving the pattern recognition problems with finite training set, non-linear and high dimension. In the end, this thesis choose the Shengxiang group Co., Ltd to verify the early-warning model. Key wordsrisk management of marketing channel, risk incentive, index of risk early-wariningwarning model of risk企业营销渠道风险识别及其预警体系研究IV图 表 清 单图 1.1 研究思路.6图 2.1 营销渠道风险预警的整体思路图.14图 3.1 波特五力模型.19图 3.2 问卷发放行业分布.27图 5.1 一个简单的学习系统模型.43图 5.2 结构风险最小化原理图.46图 5.3 最优超平面示意图.47图 5.4 支撑向量机体系结构图.49图 5.5 模型结构示意图.50图 5.6 SVM的 DOS操作界面.57图 5.7 SVM结果的产生界面.58表 3.1 营销渠道风险诱因分类.25表 3.2 问卷发放情况表.27表 3.3 KMO and Bartletts Test.28表 3.4 Rotated Component Matrix.29表 3.5 营销渠道风险诱因量表检验.30表 4.1 风险因素指标化.33表 5.1 常用核函数.