策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 1 www.cemachina.com Euit EU interpretation training 欧盟口欧盟口译译训练训练 cemachina.com Copyright 2010 CEMACHINA.COM, All Rights Reserved 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 2 www.cemachina.com “脱钩论”已到梦醒时分“脱钩论”已到梦醒时分 THE WORLD WAKES FROM THE WISH-DREAM OF DECOUPLING The US retains the capacity to The US retains the capacity to disrupt the world economy which it has disrupt the world economy which it has possessed since at least the 1920s. possessed since at least the 1920s. Accordingly, the struggle between the Accordingly, the struggle between the deleveraging of highdeleveraging of high- -income countries income countries and the growth momentum of emand the growth momentum of emerging erging economies is ending, alas, in a decisive economies is ending, alas, in a decisive victory for the former. victory for the former. 美国仍然具有令全球经济陷入混乱的美国仍然具有令全球经济陷入混乱的 能力，至少从上世纪能力，至少从上世纪 2020 年代起，它就具备年代起，它就具备 了这种能力。因此，高收入国家去杠杆化和了这种能力。因此，高收入国家去杠杆化和 新兴经济体增长势头之间的角力，最终将以新兴经济体增长势头之间的角力，最终将以 前者取得决定性胜利而告终。唉！前者取得决定性胜利而告终。唉！ Yet the news is not all bad: Yet the news is not all bad: inflationary pressures are abating fast. inflationary pressures are abating fast. Even so, this hides more bad news. The Even so, this hides more bad news. The broken financial system will weaken the broken financial system will weaken the transmission from monetary easing to the transmission from monetary easing to the economy. This will make the coming economy. This will make the coming slowdown last a long time. Evenslowdown last a long time. Even though though decisive action has saved the financial decisive action has saved the financial system from its recent heart attack, the system from its recent heart attack, the patient remains enfeebled. patient remains enfeebled. 但这也不全然是坏事： 通胀压力正迅速 减轻。 但尽管如此， 这掩盖了更多的坏消息。 分崩离析的金融体系将减弱货币放松对经济 的传导作用，这将使得即将来临的经济放缓 持续很长时间。尽管各方采取的果断行动将 金融体系从近期“心脏病突发”中拯救了过 来，但“病人”仍然很虚弱。 In 2007, thIn 2007, the world economy (measured e world economy (measured at market exchange rates) grew by 3.7 per at market exchange rates) grew by 3.7 per cent in real terms. This year, according cent in real terms. This year, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund, growth the International Monetary Fund, growth 2007 年，全球经济（以市场汇率计算） 实际增长率为 3.7%。国际货币基金组织 (IMF)最新 世界经济展望 (World Economic Outlook)预计，今年的全球经济增长率为 2.7%，而明年仅为 1.9%。该机构预计，高收策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 3 www.cemachina.com is forecast to be 2.7 per cent. Next year is forecast to be 2.7 per cent. Next year it is expected to be a it is expected to be a mere 1.9 per cent. mere 1.9 per cent. The economies of highThe economies of high- -income countries income countries are forecast to stagnate next year. are forecast to stagnate next year. Meanwhile, emerging economies are Meanwhile, emerging economies are forecast to grow at 6.1 per cent. This forecast to grow at 6.1 per cent. This seems fast. But it is 0.6 percentage seems fast. But it is 0.6 percentage points slower than was forecast in July points slower than was forecast in July and is well and is well below the 8 per cent achieved below the 8 per cent achieved in 2007 and 6.9 per cent still forecast in 2007 and 6.9 per cent still forecast for 2008.for 2008. 入国家的经济明年将陷入停滞，而新兴经济 体预计将增长 6.1%。这一速度看起来很快。 但与 7 月份的预期相比，已下降了 0.6%，远 低于 2007 年 8%的经济增长和对 2008年仍能 实现 6.9%增长的预期。 The pleasant surprise is the The pleasant surprise is the forecast growth of 6 per cent in Africa forecast growth of 6 per cent in Africa next year. Developing Asia is forecast to next year. Developing Asia is forecast to remain the worlds leader, with growth of remain the worlds leader, with growth of 7.7 per cent: China is on 9.3 per cent, 7.7 per cent: China is on 9.3 per cent, while India is down to 6.9 while India is down to 6.9 per cent. per cent. Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe is Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe is forecast to grow only 3.4 per cent next forecast to grow only 3.4 per cent next year and the western hemisphere to grow year and the western hemisphere to grow even more slowly, at 3.2 per cent.even more slowly, at 3.2 per cent. 令人惊喜的是， 预计非洲经济明年将增 长 6%。根据预测，发展中亚洲国家仍将领跑 全球，经济增长率高达 7.7%：其中中国为 9.3%，而印度将降至 6.9%。与此同时，预计 中、东欧经济明年将仅增长 3.4%，而西半球 的增速甚至更为缓慢，仅为 3.2%。 These forecasts were prepared before These forecasts were prepared before the worst of the financial shocks of the worst of the financial shocks of September and October. As Mervyn King, September and October. As Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, remarked governor of the Bank of England, remarked in a speech delivered last night: in a speech delivered last night: “Radical action was needed to ensure Radical action was needed to ensure the the survival of the banking system.survival of the banking system.” * Indeed, * Indeed, the very fact that governments felt the very f