The United States experience as a reference of success for shale gas development: The case of MexicoJuan Roberto Lozano MayanAsia-Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), Inui Bldg., Kachidoki 11F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054, JapanH I G H L I G H T S?The U.S. is generally regarded as the major benchmark to shale gas development. ?Its use however, might be misleading without considering the structural complexity embedded. ?Despite Mexicos shale gas potential and policies, results have remained elusive. ?In using this benchmark, Mexico has overlooked the ample differences underlying. ?Instead of replication, this benchmark can be more useful for adaptive policymaking.a r t i c l e i n f oArticle history: Received 10 June 2013 Accepted 25 July 2013 Available online 16 August 2013Keywords: Shale gas United States Mexicoa b s t r a c tShale gas has gained increasing worldwide attention in the light of the rapid production and significanteffects seen in the United States. Using this case as a reference, several countries have taken the first steps to develop their own resources, with Mexico in particular including shale gas in its energy planning priorities and rushing towards its commercial production, although results have still remained elusive. This paper argues that due to the intrinsic complexity embedded in the shale gas development of the United States, its use as a benchmark by Mexico for policy making purposes is misleading, given the challenges in reproducing the same factors of success on the basis of the contextual differences betweenboth countries. The findings presented can ultimately be helpful for other countries looking forward to or in the process of developing their shale gas resources driven by the same reference.fax: +81 3 5144 8555.E-mail address: lozanoaperc.ieej.or.jpEnergy Policy 62 (2013) 7078including the United States (EIA, 2011) became the milestone that spurred real interest to the worldwide development of this unconventional gas source, due to the resource estimations of nearly the size of the conventional gas proved reserves in 2010. As this information also indicated the shale gas resource base to be more widely dispersed than the proved reserves of conventional gas of which more than half is held by three countries alone; several countries jumped on the shale gas bandwagon, hastening policies to foster the commercial development of their domestic resources in an effort to replicate or approximate the results observed in the United States (Selley, 2012; Lozano Maya, 2012; Gny, 2010). Although some of these early efforts have been encouraging, evidence indicates shale gas production to be very complex, let alone to the extent reached in the United States. In Poland, where estimations of its shale gas resources were the highest inEurope with 187 trillion cubic feet (EIA, 2011), subsequent official re-assessments by the Polish authorities have reduced this poten-tial significantly, to a range between 12.2 and 27.1 trillion cubic feet (Polish Geological Institute, 2012) that on average justrepresents 11% of the initial figures. It is noted that in spite of the positive expectations for shale gas in Poland, the under-developed infrastructure, regulatory deficiencies and little compe- tition in its gas market along with the poor results in exploratory wells have resulted in some major companies abandoning their production plans (Johnson Huggins, 2010; Papaioannou, et al., 2006; Paasi, 2005). In Mexicos case, the relevance of shale gas passed fromofficial speeches to energy policy priorities, with two scenarios of production included in the Energy Strategy 2012. The Strategy is the major legal instrument of long-term energy planning sub- mitted annually to the Mexican Congress for approval and is developed upon three major elements: (a) energy security, to meet the countrys energy demand competitively and reliably;(b) economic efficiency, to provide cost-effective energy resourcesand (c) environmental sustainability. With five shale basins pre-liminarily identified, the business-as-usual scenario in the Strategy encompassed the development of only one shale gas play, with the more favorable scenario adding another play. For each scenario, production would start by 2016 with the output expected amount- ing to 15% and 29% from the total gas production expected by 2026 (Secretara de Energa, 2012b), however, the total preliminary shale gas potential estimated was between 150 and 459 billion cubic feet, which is respectively lower in 78% and 33% from the benchmark employed from EIA (2011).J.R. Lozano Maya / Energy Policy 62 (2013) 707871In compliance with these policies, other operational objectives were set, encompassing geologic studies, 20 exploratory wells upto 2014 and the identification of the most promising geologic plays and areas (Pemex, 2011). Nonetheless, up to February 2013, only seven wells had been drilled, with two not being commercially productive, thr