WEST AFRICAN POWER POOL: Planning and Prospects for Renewable EnergyWEST AFRICAN POWER POOL: Planning and Prospects for Renewable Energy34ContentsExecutive Summary 111 Introduction 132 Overview of Methodology 15 3 Scenario Assumptions 17 3.1 The Four Scenarios 17 3.2 Overall Assumptions 17 3.3 Assumptions about Electricity Demand 18 3.4 Assumptions on Local Transmission and Distribution 20 3.5 Assumptions about Renewable Resource Potential 21 3.6 Assumptions about Fuel Availability and Prices 21 3.7 Assumptions about Electricity Generation Options 24 3.8 Assumptions on Trade between Countries 30 3.9 Constraints related to System and Unit Operation 304 Modelling Results 33 4.1 Reference Scenario 33 4.2 Renewable Promotion Scenario: Investment and Generation Mix through 2030 34 4.3 Economic Implications of the Renewable Promotion Scenario 40 4.4 Comparison with Alternative Scenarios 40455 Long-term Energy Planning and Integration of Renewable Energy in Power Systems 436 Conclusions 457 References 47Appendix A: Detailed Demand Data 49Appendix B: Detailed Power Plant Assumptions 50Appendix C: Generic Technology Parameters 63Appendix D: Detailed Transmission Data 69Appendix E: Detailed Build Plan in the Renewable Promotion Scenario 756FiguresFigure 1. Country Power Sector Model Structure 16Figure 2. Secondary Electricity Demand Projections with Mining Projects 19Figure 3. Total Final Electricity Demand, 2010-2030, by Category 19Figure 4. Load Shape Data: Ghana in 2012 19Figure 5. Overnight Investment Cost Assumptions for Renewable Energy Technologies in the Renewable Promotion Scenario 26Figure 6. Levelised Cost of Electricity: Distribution of 63 Hydro Projects 28Figure 7. Diurnal Variation of Solar Photovoltaic Output 32Figure 8. Electricity Production in the Reference Scenario 33Figure 9. Energy Capacity Mix of Existing Plants 35Figure 10. New Capacity Addition under the Renewable Promotion Scenario until 2030 35Figure 11. Capacity Balance under the Renewable Promotion Scenario 36Figure 12. Electricity Supply in the Renewable Promotion Scenario: Regional Generation plus Imports from Central Africa 37 Figure 13. Electricity Production Shares by Country in 2010 and 2030 under the Renewable Promotion Scenario 37Figure 14. Regional Trade in 2030 in the Renewable Promotion Scenario 39Figure 15. Share of Distributed Generation in Urban and Rural Demand in 2030 for the Renewable Promotion Scenario 39Figure 16. Annualised Undiscounted System Costs in the Renewable Promotion Scenario 40Figure 17. Electricity Supply Shares under Three Alternative Scenarios 41Figure 18. Electricity Supply Mix by Country: Renewable Promotion Scenario vs. Energy Security Scenario 4167TablesTable 1. Assumptions for Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure Costs and Losses 20Table 2. Existing Hydro and Identified Hydro Projects 20Table 3. Estimates of other Renewable Energy Potential 21Table 4. Assumptions on Fuel Availability 23Table 5. Fuel Price Projections 23Table 6. Existing Power Generation Capacity 25Table 7. Capacity of Future Projects 25Table 8. Assumptions on Overnight Investment Costs for Generic Power Technologies 26 Table 9. Levelised Cost of Electricity: Assumptions 27Table 10. Existing Transmission Infrastructure Summary 31Table 11. New Cross-Border Transmission Projects 31Table 12. Capacity Addition by Country, 2010-2030: Renewable Promotion Scenario 35Table 13. Final Electricity Demand Projections 49Table 14. Existing Thermal Power Stations 50Table 15. Existing Hydro Power Plants 52Table 16. Considered and Committed Thermal Generation Projects 54Table 17. Considered and Committed Hydro Projects 58Table 18. Other Parameters for Renewable Energy Technologies 63Table 19. Levelised Cost of Electricity: Comparisons in 2010 64Table 20. Levelised Cost of Electricity: Comparisons in 2020 65Table 21. Levelised Cost of Electricity: Comparisons in 2030 66Table 22. Detailed Data for Existing Transmission Infrastructure 69Table 23. Detailed Data for Future Transmission Projects 70Table 24. Detailed Transmission and Distribution Losses by Country 729Abbreviations CCGT Combined Cycle Gas TurbineCSP Concentrated Solar PowerECOWAS Economic Community of West African StatesECREEE ECOWAS Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency GWh Gigawatt-hoursIAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IRENA International Renewable Energy AgencyGJ GigajouleskV KilovoltLCOE Levelised Cost of ElectricityMESSAGE Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental ImpactMW MegawattOCGT Open Cycle Gas TurbineO sufficient resources and capacity in place to supply desired production) and user-defined constraints (e. g. , reserve margin, speed of technology deployment, emission limits, policy targets). The model reports on the mix of technologies and fuels that achieves a least-cost power-system configuration for given demand levels. The economic, environmental and social implications a