? ? ? 2.00%3.00%2.90%2.60%2.20% 2.00%0.60%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%? 12?GDP? ?2015?4000? 983126515552100222027403136356328.70%22.90%35.10%5.70%23.40%14.50%13.60%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00020062007200820092010201120122013? ? ? ? ? ?IP? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? 20162025 ? ? ? ? 20162025 ? ?, 6.00%? ? ?, 67.80%? ?, 7.20%? ?, 5.70%?, 13.30%?, 19.00%? ?, 42.00%?, 12.00%? ?, 15.00%?, 12.00%2016?2025?1.5? 5?, 69.70%?, 1.10%? ? IP? ?, 8.20%?, 0.20%? ?, 7.40%?, 13.40%?, 50.70%?, 7.50%? ?IP?, 18.30%?, 3.60%?, 13.70%?, 6.20%2016?2025?898?9500?CAGR30%;?CAGR27%?CAGR?83%?CAGR61%? ?IP?CAGR42%? ? ? ? ? ?/? ? ? ? ? ? 2013? ? ? ? ?230200140103.7 050100150200250?/?27%2%71%24%46%30%? 2013? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 202002404428398325313718342820432984612125.50% 19.00%18.10%14.60%14.30%15.20%1.10%6.50%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002008? 2009? 2010? 2011? 2012? 2013? 2014? 2015H1?11.70%17.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%2014?2015? ? ? 2015/2016? 1.361.160.570.430.3600.20.40.60.811.21.41.6? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?106.8144.1158.60%7.30%3.10%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%020406080100120140160? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2930360038668000100000 100000150000200000250000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00020122013201420152016E2017E2018E2019E 2020E?2.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.6 4.4 5.4 16.0 024681012141618200820092010201120122013201420152016E? ? ? ? ?IP? ? ? 2.372.513.5113.45024681012141620082012? ? ? ?