单位代码 单位代码 10709 分类号 分类号 F273.4 硕士学位论文 硕士学位论文 论文题目：商业银行信用卡顾客生命 论文题目：商业银行信用卡顾客生命 周期计量研究 周期计量研究 学科专业： 企业管理 学科专业： 企业管理 学号： 2007132 学号： 2007132 研究生姓名： 田欣媛 研究生姓名： 田欣媛 指导老师： 周镭（教授） 指导老师： 周镭（教授） 答辩委员会主任委员： 张鸿（教授） 答辩委员会主任委员： 张鸿（教授） 答辩日期：答辩日期： 2010 年年 3 月月 20 日日 摘 要 信用卡业务是国际金融行业公认利润最高的业务之一，信用卡业务比重较高的银行其盈利能力也较强。但是，我国各商业银行在信用卡营销过程中，由于不注重对目标顾客的选取和售后服务工作，导致信用卡顾客流失严重，较短的信用卡持有期，又使得信用卡盈利状况不容乐观。而顾客生命周期作为描述顾客与企业交易维系时间长短的变量，不但反映了企业的顾客关系管理现状，而且还是研究顾客资产和顾客终身价值等营销理论不可或缺的关键变量。然而截止目前，大部分学者主要是对顾客生命周期进行简单的界定和探讨，缺乏真正意义上的系统探讨与研究；在计量方法的选择上，理论界尚未达成共识；此外，还缺乏针对具体行业开展的实证研究。 鉴于此，基于国内外学者对顾客生命周期相关理论的现有研究，首先对本文所研究的顾客生命周期概念进行了界定，同时对其影响因素和计量方法进行比较综述分析。其次，针对现有计量方法的若干不足之处，提出本文的研究思路和主要研究方法生存分析法，并构建了顾客生命周期影响因素框架以及顾客生命周期计量模型。再次，以商业银行信用卡顾客为调查对象，在西安市范围内进行问卷调查，应用 SPSS 14.0 和 SAS 8.10 统计软件，先后采用描述性分析、可靠性分析、熵值法对信用卡顾客数据进行分析，最终筛选出顾客生命周期的 7 个独立影响因素变量以及整群和分类顾客各自的生命周期。最后，本文对商业银行信用卡管理者的营销实践提出若干对策建议，同时指出了未来的研究方向。 本文的创新之处在于，首先对顾客生命周期计量方法进行较为系统的梳理和对比分析，为顾客生命周期的计量提供了一种研究思路。其次针对商业银行信用卡业，从顾客变量的角度建立了顾客生命周期影响因素框架。此外，首次将顾客生命周期的主观影响因素加以量化后引入 Cox 比例风险模型，探索出了衡量主观因素对顾客生命周期影响程度的方法，较好地实现了本文对商业银行信用卡业营销实践的指导意义。 关键词关键词：信用卡、顾客生命周期、生存分析法、Cox 比例风险回归模型、乘积极限法 本课题受国家自然科学基金项目资助， 项目名称： 顾客资产会计计量研究， 项 目批准号：70672116。The Study on the Measurement of Customer Lifetime Cycle of the Commercial Bank Credit Card ABSTRACT The credit card service is one of the most profitable services in the international finance industry. The banks which have a higher proportion of the credit card service also have strong profitability. However, in the credit card marketing process, many customers left and the credit cards profit situation was bad because of they did not pay attention to the selection of target customers as well as the backward after-sales service. While the customer lifetime cycle which descries the duration time of the transaction is the key issue to study the customer asset and the customer lifetime value as well as the situation of the customer relationship management. From the current study, most of the scholars mainly defined and discussed the customer lifetime cycle in a simple way without a systemic research. At the same time, there was not a consensus about the measurement and lack of empirical studies of secific industry. In view of this, this paper selected the commercial bank credit card customers in Xian city as an object of the questionare investigation. Afterwards, the data was analyzed by the methods of descriptive analysis, reliability analysis, entropy method and survival analysis using the statistic analysis software SPSS 14.0 and SAS 8.10. Then this paper studied the customer lifetime cycle from the two most critical issues: firstly, identifying the reasons why the customers left; secondly, estimating the value of customer lifetime cycle. The conclusions are as follows: (1) This paper firstly introduced the customer satisfaction, perceived value and customer trust in the Cox proportional hazards regression model and then screen 7 protective factors from the 15 influencing factors of the customer lifetime cycle. They are credit card degree, monthly per capita disposable income, customer satisfaction, age, number of cards, wallet share and trade channels. With the values of these factors increases the customer lifetime cycle will be extended. (2) The value of customer lifetime cycle was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The whole credit card customers median survival time is 38 months. With the classification of “credit card degree“, the article also got the median survival time 37 months (the General card customers), 74 months (the Silver card customers) and 108 months (the Gold level and above card customers). At last this article made a number of policy proposals of commercial banks credit card marketing practices and noted the future research directions. Tian Xinyuan (Enterprise Management) Directed by Professor Zhou Lei Key Words: the credit card, the customer lifetime cycle, survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression model, Kaplan-Meier method 目 录 1 绪论 . 1 1.1 研究背景 . 1 1.1.1 信用卡行业的背景介绍 . 1 1.1.2 顾客生命周期相关理论背景. 2 1.2 研究的目的及意义. 3 1.2.1 研究目的 . 3 1.2.2 研究意义 . 3 1.3 研究方法 . 4 1.4 论文内容及框架. 4 1.4.1 研究内容. 4 1.4.2 论文的基本框架. 5 2 理论概述 . 6 2.1 相关概念的界定.