上海交通大学硕士学位论文工程项目风险管理中的质量安全保险费率研究姓名：张英隆申请学位级别：硕士专业：结构工程指导教师：胡昊20080201I工程项目风险管理中的质量安全保险费率研究 摘 要 我国现行的工程质量与安全类保险存在投保率低、保险费率过高、无差别、赔付偏低等问题。因此，研究合理的保险费率确定方法，减少其随意性和不确定性，对于推行工程质量安全保险具有重要现实意义。本文的主要目的是研究和建立合理的工程质量安全保险费率厘定方法，并探讨其工程应用。 在综述国内外工程保险发展概况的基础上，本文借鉴国际工程保险制度的成功经验提出我国工程质量安全保险的发展思路：在借助保险手段进行工程质量、安全方面的风险转移和风险控制时，应强制实行人身意外伤害险、建筑工程一切险或安装工程一切险以及工程质量责任险；同时，应通过制定工程保险合同指导性范本、实施可操作性强的工程风险辨识与评估方法、设计并制定保险费率厘定程序等途径促进我国工程质量与安全类保险的推广实施。 通过研究保险费的构成与厘定原则、保险费率的数理基础、非寿险精算理论和工程保险的保费特点，本文建立了基于风险分析的费率综合计算模型，以适用费率基本费率调整系数为基本计算公式，即适用费率通过对基本费率的调整得出，基本费率和调整系数又分别由若干影响因素综合确定。本文继而分析了工程质量安全保险费率综合计算模型的关键技术，结合合理识别基本费率与调整系数的影响因素以及确定基本费率和调整系数值所涉及的风险分析技术、风险评估方法和多指标综合评价方法等关键技术，构建了该模型的适用技术组合图，为模型的应用提供了合理的技术路线。 II本文以案例分析的形式研究了工程质量安全保险费率综合计算模型的应用， 构建出建筑工程一切险、 安装工程一切险、 工程质量责任险、人身意外伤害险等四项应强制投保的工程质量安全保险费率影响因素表，根据案例的工程信息，运用费率综合计算模型试算了建筑工程一切险、工程质量责任险和人身意外伤害险的投保费率。 在案例分析的基础上，本文讨论总结了该方法的适用性和改进建议，认为应改进和完善费率综合计算模型，做好保险计划的安排，选择合适的保险人和促进“共保体”的发展，加强政府及行业管理。 本文在工程质量安全保险费率的程序化、规范化方面开展了探索性工作，为工程质量安全保险费率的厘定提出了一种可供参考的框架性思路，为在我国推广实施工程质量安全保险提供了理论储备。 关键词：风险管理，工程质量安全保险，保险费率，费率厘定IIIRESEARCH ON PREMIUM RATING OF CONSTRUCTION QUALITY & SAFETY INSURANCES IN CONSTRUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT ABSTRACT Currently there exist many problems in Chinas construction quality and safety related insurances such as low purchase rate, high premium rate, similar insurance policies and low compensation. The determination of the premium rate of construction insurance is therefore of great importance. The main purpose of this thesis is to establish a calculation method for determining the premium rate and apply it to practical construction projects. On the basis of experiences of construction insurance development at home and abroad, this thesis suggests to compulsorily implement Construction All Risks, Erection All Risks, Inherent Defect Insurance as well as Accidental Injury Insurance, which has been carried out but still needs further improvements. Meanwhile, it is suggested to release a guindance for insurance contract, put applicable risk identification and risk evaluation methods into practice, and work out premium rating procedures. By applying theories of composition of insurance premium, premium rating, actuarial theory of non-life insurance, and the characteristics of premium of construction insurance, the thesis puts forward an integrated premium calculation model based on risk analysis. The thesis establishes a rating method with the consideration of an adjustment to the basic premium rate, that is Applicable prerium rate = Basic premium rate Adjusting IVcoefficient. The thesis analyzes the key techniques of the integrated premium calculation model including risk analyzing techniques, risk evaluation methods, multi-index evaluation methods etc. They can be applied to identify the influence factors and then calculate the the value of the basic premium rate and adjusting coefficient. The thesis also suggests a combined techniqual chart for the integrated premium calculation model. The thesis conducts a case study to analyze the implementation of the calculation model. Proposing the influencing factors of the basic rates and adjusting coefficients of these four kinds of compulsory insurances, the thesis makes a tentative premium rating of the case projects Construction All Risks, Inherent Defect Insurance and Personal Accident Insurance. On the basis of the results of case study, the thesis suggests improving the integrated premium calculation model, making a rational insurance plan, choosing suitable insurer, promoting the development of collective insurers, and enhancing the administration from the government and the whole construction industry. The thesis does an exploratory study on the normalization of construction quality and safety insurances premium rating. This preliminary study provides a framework for the calculation of the premium rate, and thus lays a foundation for the promoting and implementing of construction quality and safety insurance in China. KEY WORDS： risk management, construction quality and safety insurance, premium rate, premium rating method IX图目录 图 1 工程建设风险管理新模式示意图.22 图 2 风险值与保险费率的关系图.29 图 3 风险辨识程序.36 图 4 情景分析法工作示意图.39 图 5 蒙特卡洛法流程图.46 图 6 风险矩阵.49 图 7 连续变量形式的风险矩阵.50 图 8 ALARP 原则图示.50 图 9 层次分析法结构图.