Changsha, October 10, 200921世纪的隐形冠军 超越危机的战略与领导艺术Hidden Champions of the 21st Century Strategy and Leadership Beyond the Crisis赫尔曼西蒙 教授 博士Prof. Dr. Hermann SimonBonn Office Haydnstrasse 36, D-53115 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49/228/9843-115, Fax +49/228/9843-380 e-mail: hermann.simonsimon-kucher.com Internet: www.simon-kucher.com“中国谚语” Chinese Wisdom 风雨来时，人或筑墙，余者造风车“When the storm comes, some build walls, the others build windmills.”2你了解危机的实质吗？ Understanding the Crisis?宏观经济背景 Macroeconomic perspective:危机的根源 The root of the crisis金融市场与实体经济 Financial vs. “real” markets全球化的冲击 The impact of globalization政府的角色 The role of government3来也匆匆，去也匆匆 Steep Ascent, Steep FallSource: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 2, 2009, p. 11* German engineering firms新订单 New Orders* 2005=Index 100Dec. 2007 148.9Jan. 2009 91.4May 2009 66.14危机如何影响行业 How Crises Affect Sectors前危机时代的变化 Changes in former crises (1980-2006)Education (e.g. tuition, textbooks) 教育Reading (e.g. newspapers, magazines) 阅读Insurance: private and pension 保险Health care (e.g. health insurance, services) 保健Food at home 在家吃饭Entertainment (e.g. event tickets, travel) 娱乐Housing 住房Tobacco products 烟草Cash contributions 现金付款的交易Clothing and services 服装与相关服务Transportation 运输Personal care products and services 个人护理产品 与服务 Food outside of home 在外面吃饭TotalIncreased spending over period averageDecreased spending over period averageSource: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009.5一个产业的子行业受影响的情况Process engineering (technology)Agricultural engineeringElevators and escalatorsPower systemsRobots and automationEngine technologyCompressor and vacuum technologyMaterials handling technologyFluid pumpsMachine toolsPrecision toolsWood processing machinerySmelting and roller plantsConstruction and building material machinery Fluid technologyPlastics and rubber machineryGeneral air technology (ventilation)Mining machineryFoundry machineryPrinting and paper technologyTextile machineryTotalRevenue growth per 2009Revenue drop per 2009Revenue changes (in %)Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009. 6超越危机 Beyond the Crisis?危机将以何种形式发展 Course of the crisis: V, U, L, hysteresis or W? 社会政治后果 Socio-political consequences Social tensions 社会紧张 From deflation to inflation 从通缩到通胀 Public debt, higher taxation 公债，高税率 More government regulation 更多的政府管制 Protectionism 保护主义 Worst-case scenarios 最坏的图景7危机可能的发展形态Economic levelTimeV 型U型L型Hysteresis迟滞型W型8Danger of protectionism 贸易保护主义的危害2009年4月的伦敦峰会上，G20国家承诺不制造新的贸易壁垒 。现在WTO新的平衡状态发人深省。新的关税、配额和各种官 僚主义的人为障碍使得世界贸易总额下降了10%。“At the London summit in April 2009 the G 20 nations promised not to create new barriers to trade. Now the WTO draws a sobering balance. New duties, quotas and bureaucratic hurdles have pushed world trade down by 10%.”Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 4, 2009, p. 139超越危机 Beyond the Crisis?公司层面 ：危机是固本强身的机会Corporate level: The crisis as a purification 去杠杆化，净资产更重要Deleveraging/equity more important 产品线更精干 Streamlining of product lines 重新平衡共给与需求 Rebalancing of supply and demand 并购的好机会 Acquisition opportunities 出现极端价格细分市场 Emergence of ultra-price segmentA new modesty?10极端低价产品的出现 Emerging Ultra-low Price SegmentTata Nano“One laptop per child”NestlPharmaceuticals/GSKFrom emerging to industrial countries? 11Tata Nano12谁是全球最大的出口国？ Who is No. 1 in Exports? China 中国 USA 美国 Japan 日本 Germany 德国132008年出口总额 (单位：10亿美元Billion US-$)Source: 2009 CIA World Factbook14出口额 2000-2008 年 (单位：10亿美元 US-$ billion)Source: WTO Trade Statisticsin billion US-$Germany 德国China中国USA 美国Year15什么是隐形冠军？ What Is a Hidden Champion? 市场份额排世界前3名，或者在本大洲排第一 Top 3 in the world or no. 1 on its continent 年销售收入在40亿美元以下 Revenue below $4 billion 不为公众所熟悉 Not well known in general public16隐形冠军举例 Hidden Champions Delo Baader Brainlab Lantal Brita Tetra Belfor17来自中国的隐形冠军Hidden Champions from China中集：46%的全球集装箱份额 China International Marine Containers: 46% of global market for standard containers比亚迪：72%的全球手机电池市场份额 BYD Battery: 72% of global market for mobile phone batteries上海振华港机：35%的港口集装箱 Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery: 35% of global market for harbor cranes格力：30%的全球家用空调市场份额 Gree: 30% of global market for household air conditioner 圣雅伦：指甲钳大王 St. Allen: Nail clippers 18中国占世界的市场份额 China: World Market Shares19中国中小企业扮演的角色 Role of small and mid-sized firms for China 中国今日的经济成就很大一部分归功于中小企业 “China owes a great deal of its recent economic success to small and medium enterprises.” 1990年100万家，2001年800万家，2008年6000万 家。 1990: 1m, 2001: 8m, 2008: 60m small firms 贡献了60%的GDP和50%的税收 Account for 60% of GDP and 50% of tax revenues 66%的专利申请 66% of patent applications 68%的中国出口 68% of Chinas exports20世界各国的隐形冠军版本 Hidden Champions WorldwideRussia 2005Japan 1998Germany 1997Italy 2001/2007Brazil 2003Netherlands 1997Spain 1997Poland 1999Turkey 1999France 1998 January 26, 2004India 2006Serbia 2007Egypt 2008Korea 1997/2008China