The World Economic Outlook for 2011IMF April 2011 The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. 私人需求正 在接替公共 需求Decreasing 逐渐削弱 Developing economies, particularly in sub- Saharan Africa, have also resumed fast and sustainable growth. Rising food and commodity prices pose a threat to poor households, adding to social and economic tensions, notably in the Middle East and North Africa. Oil price increases since January 2011 and information on supply, including on spare capacity, suggest that the disruptions so far would have only mild effects on economic activity. An earthquake in Japan has exacted a terrible human toll. Its macroeconomic impact is projected to be limited, although uncertainty remains elevated. 增加、激化disorder from the oil market Overall, with the recovery stronger on the one hand but oil supply growth lower on the other, projections for global real GDP growth in 201112 are little changed from the January 2011 WEO Update. But downside risks have risen. World real GDP growth is forecast to be about 4 percent in 2011 and 2012, down modestly from 5 percent in 2010. Real GDP in advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is expected to expand by about 2 percent and 6 percent respectively. Downside risks continue to outweigh upside risks. In advanced economies, weak sovereign balance sheets and still-moribund real estate markets continue to present major concerns, especially in certain euro area economies; financial risks are also to the downside as a result of the high funding requirements of banks and sovereigns. New downside risks are building on account of commodity prices, notably for oil, and, relatedly, geopolitical uncertainty, as well as overheating and booming asset markets in emerging market economies. However, there is also the potential for upside surprises to growth in the short term, owing to strong corporate balance sheets in advanced economies and buoyant demand in emerging and developing economies. Many old policy challenges remain unaddressed even as new ones come to the fore. In advanced economies, strengthening the recovery will require keeping monetary policy accommodative as long as wage pressures are subdued, inflation expectations are well anchored, and bank credit is sluggish. At the same time, fiscal positions need to be placed on sustainable medium-term paths by implementing fiscal consolidation plans and entitlement reforms supported by stronger fiscal rules and institutions. This need is particularly urgent in the United States to stem the risk of globally destabilizing changes in bond markets. 在先进经济体，增强复苏力 度要求保持宽松的货币政策 ，但前提是工资压力温和、 通胀预期得到良好控制以及 银行信贷增长不活跃。财政整顿计划须在更加完善的财政规则和制 度的支持下，落实财政整顿计 划和进行福利改革，从而使财 政状况走上可持续的中期路径 。 The U.S. policy plans for 2011 have actually switched back from consolidation to expansion. Efforts should be made to reduce the projected deficit for fiscal year 2011. Measures to trim discretionary spending are a move in this direction. However, to make a sizable dent in the projected medium-term deficits, broader measures such as Social Security and tax reforms will be essential. In Japan, the immediate fiscal priority is to support reconstruction. Once reconstruction efforts are under way and the size of the damage is better understood, attention should turn to linking reconstruction spending to a clear fiscal strategy for bringing down the public debt ratio over the medium term. In the euro area, despite significant progress, markets remain apprehensive about the prospects of countries under market pressure. For them what is needed at the euro area level is sufficient, low-cost, and flexible funding to support strong fiscal adjustment, bank restructuring, and reforms to promote competitiveness and growth. More generally, greater trust needs to be reestablished in euro area banks through ambitious stress tests and restructuring and recapitalization programs. Moreover, reform of the global financial system remains very much a work in progress. The challenge for many emerging and some developing economies is to ensure that present boom-like conditions do not develop into overheating over the coming year. Inflation pressure is likely to build further as growing production comes up against capacity constraints, with large food and energy price increases, which weigh heavily in consumption baskets, motivating demands for higher wages. Real interest rates are still low a