The global gold market and the case for gold 国际黄金市场与展望Beijing | 8 Apr 2011Introducing World Gold Council 世界黄金协会简介 Funded by the worlds leading gold mining companies.由世界领先的黄金矿业公司资助 We promote the use of gold through marketing and market development activities in major international markets.通过在主要国际市场开展营销和市场开发活动促进各种形式的黄金使用 Offices in key consuming countries:在主要消费国设立办事处: India印度 China中国 Turkey土耳其 United States美国2Members成员 Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd Alamos Gold Inc. AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corp. Buenaventura Coeur dAlene Mines Corporation Eldorado Gold Corporation Franco-Nevada Corporation Goldcorp Inc. Golden Star Resources Ltd Gold Fields Limited IAMGOLD Corporation Kinross Gold Corporation New Gold Inc. Newmont Mining Corporation Primero Mining Corporation Yamana Gold Inc.Associates合作公司成员 Hutti Gold Mines Co Ltd Royal Gold Inc China Gold Group Corporation Mitsubishi Materials CorporationWorld Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 20113World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011Price trends 金价走势 10年牛市黄金价格美元/盎司10年回报424%或 年回报率18%Price trends 金价走势10年牛市4World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011Source: LBMA, WGCJan-80USD 850.00 all time high 20-Jul-99USD 252.802-Apr-01USD 255.95Year end 2003USD 416.25Year end 2004USD 435.60Year end 2005USD 513.00Year end 2006USD 632.00Year end 2007 USD 833.75 17-Mar-08USD 1,011.25 24-Oct-08USD 692.503-Dec-09USD 1,208.75 9-Nov-10USD 1,421.00 24-Mar-11USD 1,447.00 One of the best performing assets 金价与其他货币的相对表现Source: LBMA, MSCI, WGCGold % Annual Change5World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011USDAUDCADCNYEURINRJPYCHFGBP20011.4%10.6%6.7%1.4%8.0%4.8%16.5%5.1%4.6%200225.6%13.6%24.2%25.6%5.9%24.7%13.4%4.2%13.4%200320.2%-10.1%-1.7%20.2%-0.4%14.4%8.7%6.7%7.7%20044.4%1.2%-2.6%4.4%-3.4%-0.1%0.4%-4.3%-2.7%200517.8%25.1%13.8%14.8%35.5%21.8%34.6%36.7%31.1%200623.2%14.5%22.7%19.3%11.0%20.7%24.5%14.5%8.5%200731.9%18.6%11.0%23.3%17.9%17.5%25.4%21.9%29.7%20084.3%32.3%30.9%-2.4%8.4%28.2%-16.8%-2.8%44.1%200925.0%-3.2%7.3%24.9%23.7%20.6%28.5%23.7%12.7%201029.2%14.1%22.9%25.0%39.2%24.3%14.0%16.3%34.4%10-year average18.3%11.6%13.5%15.6%14.6%17.7%14.9%12.2%18.3%6World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011Price trends 金价走势10年牛市黄金价格与各资产指数相对表现比较国债公司债 股票 商品 房产 黄金Above ground stocks 现有黄金存量7World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011资料来源：黄金矿业服务公司，世界黄金协会 Source: GFMS, WGCTotal above ground stocks = 165,600 tonnes 总地上黄金存量=16万5600吨Official sector 29,600t 17.9%Jewellery 83,700t 50.5%20.45m 20.45米20.45m 20.45米金饰，8.37万吨 ，占50.5%官方部门，2.96 万吨，占17.9%私人投资，2.96万 吨，占17.9%地下黄金存量2.63万吨其他类1.98万吨，占12%现有黄金存量Above ground stocks8World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011Global allocation to gold are small 黄金投资占全球资产配置极少量9World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 201110World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011Distribution of demand and supply 供求分布5年的平均数11World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 14 March 2011Distribution of demand and supply 供需分布需求流量投资 首饰 工业 减资资料来源：黄金矿业服务公司，世界黄金协会11World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 201112World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 14 March 2011Distribution of demand and supply 供需分布供给流量官方部门销售 官方部门购买 矿产量 回收黄金资料来源：黄金矿业服务公司，世界黄金协会12World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 201113Gold demand 2010 黄金需求总量需求量 (公吨)20092010年增长率 %Q409Q410年增长率 %Jewellery金饰1,7602,0601751157513Technology科技373420121031041Investment投资1,3601,333-224427613Gold demand黄金需求量3,4933,812985895511OTC and stock flows 场外交易和储备流量541296-4513223881Total demand需求总量4,0334,10829891,19321Gold (London pm fix, US$/oz) 黄金（伦敦下午定价,美元/盎司)9721,225261,1001,36724资料来源：英国黄金矿业服务有限公司，LBMA，世界黄金协会备注：黄金需求是指金饰，技术和投资方向的需求总量。珠宝需求指黄金珠宝消费需求，而不是黄金制造所需。技术需求是指工业需求和牙科应用需 求。投资不包括场外交易和储备流量。所谓场外交易和储备流量就是之前所说的推算投资。World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 14 March 201113World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011往前看增长动力1Going forward driver one冒升中的投资需求Rising investment demand14World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 201115Investment demand strong from 2008-2010 2008-2010年 投资需求强劲World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 March 2011以吨计年黄金投资需求金条及金币总需求 黄金ETF基金和相关产品16World Gold Council | The global gold market and the case for gold | 31 Mar