0/57,Chapter 17Inflation and Price Level 通貨膨脹與物價水準,1/57,學習目標,1. Explain how the Consumer Price Index is constructed and use it to calculate the inflation rate解釋CPI如何估計,用以計算通貨膨脹率 2. Show how the CPI is used eliminate the effects of inflation in economic data如何以CPI進行平減 4. Discuss the two most important biases in the CPICPI兩個主要的估計偏誤原因 5. Distinguish between inflation and relative price changes to find the true cost of inflation通貨膨脹與相對價格變動 6. Understand the connections among inflation, nominal interest rates, and real interest rates實質利率的算法,2/57,Cover story,Prices of goods change over time Adjust values, incomes, or spending for change in prices Constant purchasing power Baseball salaries Babe Ruth earned $80,000 in 1930 超過當時的 Hoover 總統 Barry Bonds earned $10.3 million in 2001 超過當時的 Bush 總統 但是,哪一個情況比較好?誰的購買力比較高? Inflation increases uncertainty when planning for the future 通貨膨脹帶來不確定性 Consider costs of inflation 通貨膨脹的成本,3/57,台北排名44 生活費比 韓港星低 2011-08-18 中國時報 林上祚 台北報導,4/57,Problems of Inflation 物價膨脹的問題,Makes comparisons of economic conditions over time difficult 跨時比較的困難 Creates uncertainty about the future How much should I save for retirement? 未來的不確定性增加 Imposes many costs on an economy 增加許多成本(例如鋼鐵價格、油價),5/57,物價上漲衝擊九成三民眾生活 縮衣節食少娛樂 【中時電子報林淑玲台北報導】2007.05.21,民眾對於民生用品物價上漲，對生活的衝擊造成非常嚴重的有三成，六成多民眾表示有影響，但可以接受。 若進一步觀察物價上漲對於食、衣、住、行、育、樂六大基本民生生活必須項目，所造成的衝擊，46.5的受訪民眾表示最無法忍受食方面的上漲，是六大項裡比例最高者。其次，則是行的部分，被36.5的民眾列為最無法忍受的上漲項目。至於衣、住、育、樂，則僅分別有6.1、6.3、3.2、1.5的民眾，認為是無法接受的漲價項目。顯示出，物價上漲讓每日都得有支出開銷的食與行，對民眾荷包壓力最大。,6/57,Measuring Inflation 衡量物價膨脹,Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of changes in prices Consumer Price Index, CPI消費者物價指數 CPI measures The cost of a standard basket of goods and services in a given year Relative to the cost of the same basket of goods and services in the base year 相同的一籃標準財貨之成本,目前相對於基期的水準 The fixed year is called the base year基期 Base year changes periodically It uses a constant basket of goods and services It is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 台灣的物價指數由行政院主計處三局三科製作 (見國內商品行情表),7/57,國內商品行情,8/57,95年基期消費者物價指數(CPI) 查價項目、權數及商品性質別 (請見Excel表),Table 17.1, 17.2, Calculating the CPI,相同的一籃財貨組合，不同年度的購買成本 這個算法和實質 GDP 有何異同,Calculating the CPI 消費者物價指數的計算,CPI is the ratio of the cost of the basket of goods in current year to the cost in the base year Base year cost $680 2005 cost $850 CPI = (850 / 680) (100) = 1.25 兩年度的一籃財貨成本相除，其比例變化就是物價變化率 Cost of living in 2005 is 25% higher than in 2000 CPI for the base year is always 1 基期都是100% CPI for a given period is the cost of living in that period relative to what it was in the base year BEA uses CPI as a percentage the ratio times 100,11/57,CPI消費者物價指數,Measures changes in prices of a typical market basket標準的市場一籃物品 Is used to eliminate the effects of inflation from economic data CPI 可用來排除物價波動帶來的效果,12/57,Price Index 價格指數,A price index measures the average price of a given class of good or services relative to the price of the same goods and services in a base year 各種價格指數的概念都相同，皆是在相同的財貨組成前提下，當期和基期購置成本的差異，以此計算物價變動 CPI measures the change in consumer prices Other indices Core inflation is CPI without energy and food 核心物價膨脹率 Producer price index 生產者物價指數 Import / export price index 進出口物價指數 Whole sale price index 躉售物價指數,Inflation rate 通貨膨脹率,The rate of inflation is the annual percentage change in the price level 物價指數的年度變動率 Inflation in 2004 (1.889 1.840) / 1.840 = 0.027 = 2.7% Inflation in Great Depression Period of falling output and prices, deflation Inflation rates are negative 經濟蕭條，通貨緊縮,14/57,Figure 17.1 美國的通貨膨脹率,15/57,台灣的物價膨脹率 (inflation rates),16/57,Adjusting for Inflation物價膨脹的調整,A nominal quantity is measured in terms of its current dollar value名目數量是當期物價計算 A real quantity is measured in physical terms 實質數量是實體計算 To compare values over time, use real quantities 要進行跨時比較，需要實質數量 Deflating a nominal quantity converts it to a real quantity Divide a nominal quantity by its price index to express the quantity in real terms 名目數量透過物價指數平減，可得出實質數量,Table 17.3 Family Income in 2000 and 2005,Can a family buy more with $20,000 in income in 2000 or with $22,000 in 2005? 2000 is the base year for the CPI, 基期 Deflate nominal income in both years to get real income 平減名目成為實質 Compare real income 比較實質所得的高低 $20,000 in 2000 has the greater purchasing power,Page 495, Baseball Stars比較棒球明星實質所得,Compare Babe Ruths salary with Barry Bondss Requires a CPI series that includes 1930 CPI using 1982 1984 as base year 基期 Bonds had higher real salary，是Bush 總統的25倍 Does not convey information about relative incomes 1930 was Great Depression Multi-million dollar salaries common for sports stars in 2001,Real Wages 實質工資,Real wage is the purchasing power of workers nominal wages 實質工資是受雇員工名目工資的實質購買力 The real wage for any given period is calculated by dividing the nominal wage by the CPI for that period 以CPI 平減名目工資，即為實質工資 US production worker wages CPI uses 1982 1984 as base year Real wages were higher in 1970,20/57,Figure 17.2 Nominal and real wages,21/57,台灣男性實質工資 (2001=100),22/57,