EQUITY RESEARCHINDUSTRY UPDATEOppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229Andrew Uerkwitz212 667-5316Andrew.Uerkwitzopco.comPaul Dean212 667-6591Paul.Deanopco.comMartin Yang, CFA212-667-7623Martin.Yangopco.comFor analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix.February 18, 2016TECHNOLOGY/EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ANDSERVICESDrone Industry ReportIs In The SkySUMMARYThis report summarizes our view on the civilian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV,or “drones”) industry, and how mainstream consumer technologies are enablingadoption of UAVs. Over the past five years, enabling hardware and software havemade leaps to expand the civilian UAV user base from hobbyists and academics togeneral consumers and enterprises. The civil UAV market proved its mass marketpotential with more than a million prosumer drone shipments in 2015, according toour estimates. In the long run, we expect the commercial UAV market to overtake theconsumer and prosumer markets due their wider range of applications and compellingvalue propositions. But a number of technological, regulatory, and social hurdlesremain before such potential can be realized. Meanwhile, as a new technology, weexpect controversial topics to continue to emerge relating to public safety and privacyduring drone operations.KEY POINTS The emergence of consumer and commercial UAVs is inevitable. They aretangible physical targets amid the rush to a ubiquitous network of smart sensorsand autonomous systems. They bring distinct economy and scale to capturingimages and information. A set of technologies will help drone deployment grow into a mainstreamcommercial phenomenon. The latest developments in computer vision andmachine learning capabilities have the potential to turn drones into autonomouscollectors of aerial data. And a growing number of software start-ups are beginningto tackle the software and cloud-service problems, making it easier to integratedrones into standard enterprise decision making. Successful drone companies of the future are required to provide end-to-end solutions, from hardware, software, and cloud infrastructure (storage andanalysis), all the way to client-tailored total solutions. Drone makers will need theability and flexibility to bring new features on-line driven by client demand andchanging market dynamics without sacrificing security and system reliability. It is clear that the drone industry will face substantial challenges ahead. Theregulatory environment, public safety and privacy concerns, and long-termintegration into the civil airspace environment each present unique hurdles formass market applications.2Contents “I”S IN THE SKY _ 3 DRONE BASICS _ 4 HISTORY . 4 THE LONG VIEW _ 5 INTERNET OF THINGS THE END OF ALL BEGINNINGS . 5 WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR DRONES? . 6 MARKET DISCUSSION _ 7 SEGMENTS . 7 VERTICAL APPLICATIONS . 9 MARKET SHARE . 13 MARKET SIZE . 15 INVESTMENTS . 17 CONSTRAINTS AND RISKS _ 18 GLOBAL REGULATORY FRAMEWORK . 18 DRONE RISKS AND ADOPTION HURDLES . 20 TECHNOLOGY AHEAD _ 20 MINI CASE STUDIES _ 21 SHENZHEN DA-JIANG INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY CO. (DJI) THE ROBOTICS COMPANY . 21 3D ROBOTICS THE OPEN-SOURCE SOFTWARE COMPANY . 22 APPENDIX _ 24 DRONE ANATOMY . 24 GLOBAL REGULATORY OVERVIEW. 25 UAV INVESTMENTS . 26 COMPANY LIST . 29 TECHNOLOGY / EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND SERVICES3“I”s In The Sky Drones in the Deployment Age Summary This report summarizes our view on the civilian unmanne