Factors Affecting the Future Evolution of the Internet,George Sadowsky New York University and the Internet Society george.sadowskynyu.edu CEENET Network Training Workshop Budapest, 20 August, 2000,I learned in track 3 today ,Speakers have to know their audience You represent liquid intelligence My intelligence is more crystallized, and I suffer from memory constraints You are motivated to learn English is your 2nd or 3rd language,Introduction,Internet is important to us all Wed like to know where its going for a number of reasons Planning Making money Intellectual curiosity, speculation Career progression,Introduction,Progress and direction may vary according to what country youre in and where you are in the country Ill discuss many trends from developed counries And some applicable to developing countries For CEENet region, lag is 3-10 years, maybe narrowing FORMAT: Consider this in part a discussion, a debate,Futurists,Claim to know the future Do not have a good track record Early: Book of Revelations predicts end of world Yardeni and Yourdon predicted a major depression and the end of civilization, respectively, in 2000,Futurists,Either do individual people who should know better U.S. Patent Commissioner in 1899: “Everything that can be invented has already been invented” Ken Olson: “Why would anybody want a computer in their house?” Bill Gates, 1981: “640KB should be enough for anyone”,Futurists,Track 2 showed a list of such bad predictions today Insult ones intelligence; truth is not anyones monopoly I am NOT a futurist More modest, more sensible, and more useful to examine forces that will determine where the Internet goes, and then assess for self, rather than having to accept someone elses digestion in faith,Futurists,Approach as economist and informatician Look at demand for and supply of network related “stuff” Examine a number of issues not so easily classified or separated CHALLENGE: Identify significant factors that I have overlooked,Success factors for the Internet until now,Interoperability rules (protocols) were straightforward There was distributed control over parts of the net Research and education drove initial years of Internet Guiding institutions (IETF, IAB) were non-commercial and non-governmental,The current Internet,N nodes, in almost every country Massively commercial, following privatization in 1994-5 Complex structure, private peering, no backbone per se NSI claims 400,000 new DNS registrations per week From 1 to 80 registrars in 2 years (work of ICANN),Categorizing the effects,Supply push - positive (strength, encouragement) Supply weaknesses -negative Indeterminate supply issues Demand pull - positive (strength) Demand weaknesses - negative Indeterminate demand issues,Supply push - positive,Cost of electronics - Moores law Twice the number of transistors on a chip every 18 months at same cost Affects memory, processing speeds Important for router capacity In 1995 no. of core routes in Internet threatening to overwhelm largest router memory possible,Supply push - positive,Increasing returns to scale - Metcalfes law Technological progress in wavelength multiplexing Cost per wavelength predicted to go down dramatically in next year Massive movement of content to web Commercial firms HAVE to be there Electronic publishing a strong force 5% of content on web today?,Supply push - positive,Training trickledown - CEENET workshops a factor Rapid growth in wireless devices with screens (Palm Pilots, Handspring, cell phones, etc.) Strengthening of open source (software) movement Linux, Gnome, StarOffice,Supply push - positive,Approaching useful digital signatures and their legal and business acceptance Tools for easy encryption: how fast are they being delivered RSA public key encryption patent expiring this year (2000),Supply push - positive,Geographic positioning: inexpensive, small, accurate GPS receivers - an entirely new dimension of information BACNET - control and automation network Moving to TCP/IP protocol 18 sensors per room at NYU,Supply weaknesses,Longer run pessimism regarding persistence of Moores law Engineers can see 3 product cycles out in 10 years 10 year horizon for progress narrowing Problem of intellectual property protection - no protection implies suply constraint,Supply weaknesses,No successful micropayment schemes have yet emerged Electricity meters and French telephone impulsation counters implement micropayment schemes In North America, much telephone traffic is billing data for small amounts,Indeterminate supply issues,Speed and difficulty adopting IPv6 Speed of progress of UNICODE Movement of high tech labor between countries Visa approvals from developed countries Brain drain from developing countries Effects of outsourcing, e.g. Bangalore If people cant get to work, work will be sent to people,Indeterminate supply issues,When will effective QoS be realized, allowing differential services and pricing? Even the Post Office (PTT) has implemented