Global Energy Interconnection - Challenges and Opportunities 全球能源互联：挑战与机遇 Prof. Qinhua XU许勤华教授 CIEESS, Renmin University of China 2016全球能源互联网大会 March 30, 2016 What is Global Energy Interconnection? 全球能源互联 Global energy interconnection refers to the forming of an energy interconnection network on global basis, i.e., the Global Energy Internet, so that energy security can be realized for all economies in the world. Global Energy Internet will be established through cross-continent and transnational power grids across countries, connecting their large-scale energy centers; it suits all kinds of centralized and distributed energy sources covering conventional and renewable energy. 全球能源互联 是指在全球层面形成一个能源互联网即 全球能源互联网 ， 以实现全球各经济体能源的共同安全 。 全球能源互联网是由跨 洲、跨国骨干网架和各国各电压等级电网构成，连接“一极一道”（北极、赤道）大型能源基地，适应各种集中式、分布式电源，能够将风能、太阳能、海洋能等 可再生能源输送到各类用户 。 是服务范围广 、配置能力强、安全可靠性高、绿色低碳的全球能源配置平台，具有网架坚强、广泛互联、高度智能、开放互动的特 征 。 Development of Global Energy Internet 两个条件 “The difficulty of converting scientific findings into political action is a function of the uncertainty of the science and the pain generated by the action.” -William D. Ruckelshaus, former administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Quoted from Walter A. Rosenbaum： Environmental Politics and Policy 2014 A g e n d a S e t t in g F o r m u la t io n a n d L e g it im a t io n I m p le m e n t a t io n I m p a c t a n d R e f o r m u la t io n T e r m in a t io n Development of Global Energy Internet 两个条件 Establishment of Global Energy Internet links to two propositions: -first, a shared vision of global energy security; -second, the realization of clean energy substitution and electric energy substitution (Dual Substitutions) The future of the global energy internet depends on the development of the two propositions, which are the main challenges to the realization of global energy interconnection. 构建全球能源互联网包括洲内联网、洲际联网和全球互联，统筹全球能源资源开发、配置和利用，需要有两个命题的成立 ： -其一为 全球能源（安全）观的形成 ； -其二是清洁替代和电 能替代“两个替代”的实现 。 总之 ， 全球能源互联存在的可能性，取决于以上两个命题的“ 真”与“伪”。 Common Vision of Global Energy Security 全球能源安全观 Global Energy Interdependence The rapid growth in the interaction among economies on various economic, social and political and climate change issues has led the world developing towards globalization and regionalization simultaneously. When each economy strives for its own “energy independence” (for the sake of its own energy security ), the journey eventually will end at “energy interdependence” owing to practical reasons. -Qinhua XU and William CHUNG, China Energy Policy in National and International Perspectives: A Study on Fore-and-Aft 18th National Congress, City University of Hong Kong Press, 2014, p15. 全球能源相互依赖 在经济、社会、政治和气候变化等各种事务掺杂，全球化、区域化趋势同时加强的当今世界，每一个经济体所谓的对自身能源安全的终极追求 “能源独立” ，也就被现实的需求重新建构成了 “能源相互依赖” 。 Common Vision of Global Energy Security 全球能源安全观 Global Energy Governance All international energy bodies, e.g. International Energy Agency, Energy Charter, etc, have been moving in the direction of developing and reforming global energy governance, with an aim of better preparing and coping with the common challenges faced by all economies on energy security . 全球能源治理 现存任何国际能源组织，都趋向于朝着全球能源治理的方向发展，在进行着调整与改革，以应对共同的能源安全挑战。 Common Challenges of Global Energy Security 全球能源安全的共同挑战 Common Challenges - Electricity poverty; - Unsustainable energy supply; - Lack of clean energy; - Great fluctuation in energy price; - Bottlenecks in production and consumption technologies; - Compatibility with environment; - Connectivity and convertibility with other conventional and unconventional security issues ,etc. 共同挑战 -电力贫穷 -供应的不可持续性 -清洁能源短缺 -资源价格大幅波动 -生产与消费技术的瓶颈 -与环境的可兼容性 -与其他传统与非传统安全问题的关联与可转化性 等等 Common Challenges of Global Energy Security 全球能源安全的共同挑战 Clean Energy Substitution and Electric Energy Substitution 两个替代 “Clean energy substitution” refers to the realizing the transformation from the prevailing fossil energy sources to clean energy, moving towards low carbon and green development journey. “Electric energy substitution” refers to replacing coal and oil by electric energy in the energy consumption ends, reducing fossil fuel demand and pollution to environment. -Liu Zhenya, Build the Global Energy Internet and Serve for the Sustainable Development of Human Society, the 11th APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting, September 2, 2014. “清洁替代” 是指在能源开发上以清洁能源替代化石能源，走低碳绿色发展道路，实现化石能源为主向清洁能源为主转变 。 “ 电能替代” 是指在能源消费上实施以电代煤、以电代油，推广应用电锅炉、电采暖、电动交通等，提高电能在终端能源消费的比重，减少化石能源消耗和环境污染 。 “ 电能替代”必须是在“清洁替代”的基础上才能实现，也就是说产生电能的能源必须是以清洁能源为主 。 -刘振亚：构建全球能源互联网，服务人类社会可持续发展，第 11届 APEC能源部长会议， 2014年 9月2日。 Clean Energy Substitution and Electric Energy Substitution 两个替代的核心：清洁能源发展 Clean Energy Substitution and Electric Energy Substitution 两个替代：清洁能源发展 Energy Order under the Global Energy Interconnection 全球互联下的能源秩序 On one hand, the existing international energy